FWIW, when people claim to make 20bb+/hr and don't play more hours or move up, IMO, is just blowing smoke.

It just doesn't make any sense.

Interesting. My game is 100bb cap, but there are so many games that there are generally several really deep tables. I guess that makes for a different dynamic.

I agree with you about playing more hours. If you're a crusher you almost have to play more. It doesn't make sense to not play more.

Don't agree with moving up if you beat a game for 20 bigs an hour. Why bother moving up if you're making that much with such little risk?

I'd get a job just so I could quit it.

I work 50+ hours a week at a good ft job, and I also like to spend time with my family, and I have other hobbies. Also, this is the best game available to me in my geographic area. Sense.

The game I play in is probably a bit unique in that people generally dont leave the table until they have lost multiple buyins (this is a 100bb max buyin game). Even if I sit at the table and no one is deep, it generally doesn't take long for a couple players to get 300bb+ deep.

I usually play pretty maniacal until I have at least 200bb. At that point, the biggest skills that come into play are:

1. Not making huge mistakes. It's ok to make some marginal plays that get to showdown when deep, but don't let a flop mistake commit you. Make funky plays cheap.

2. Timing. If you can find a the time when someone wants to make a stand against your aggressiveness, you can win a big stack. The nice thing about aggression when deep is the the aggressor gets to set prices more profitably - bluffs can be effectively cheaper, and value fatter in $. Most 1/3 players aren't going to figure out sizing tells, especially if you are "bluffing" big bets with nutty draws occasionally, so timing large value bets (thin or fat) can win you a lot of money.

3. Playing like a nit when the typical 1/3 player is betting into you after the flop.

This this this, especially the max buy / no big bet guys mentioned in the previous posts

Late to the party with 2015 results:

Only played 25 hours last year between January and October, have been playing 3-4 days a week since then. Almost all 1/2 with a few sessions of 1/3

Lost 250bb on NYE but won it back the next day

The stddev I get from my sample is $116 when I calculate it using the "assumed consistency" error where each session assumes the $/hour was the same. I'm not sure how to extrapolate the actual stddev number from there, or get around that error in excel. I have my sessions logged on both the Poker Income app and in excel, and would be happy to provide the data set if someone can help me with the calc.

ok newb question

can someone please explain to me stddev...and how to interpret it

thanks!

One suggestion for whomever answers this - please make a new thread for it. Otherwise it will get buried in this thread and forever lost.

You may be surprised to learn that some people play poker badly.

Is this your expert opinion based on years of research and playing at a multitude of casinos?

It's based on my experience playing in So Cal and Las Vegas where the player pool is decent. Other knowledgeable people seem to agree.

If you are playing somewhere people lose 200 BB with bottom pair every other hand then more power to you. I'd like to hear your more of your expert LLSNL opinion on the matter.

Are you doubting his posted results?

Maybe I'm being too naive, but I believe them.

But it's a lol 300 hours. Which is lollololol. He'll start to get an inkling of a better idea of how he's actually doing at 1000 / 2000 / 3000 / etc. hours, and of course by that time the game he is playing in / the strategy people use against him / etc. will probably have changed drastically.

Gnicestart,butdon'tletitgotoyourhead,imoG

Yeah - people way underestimating what can happen in 300 hours. Guy probably crushes and is running hot. Results over a few hundred hours can seem other worldly

Without getting too technical, standard deviation is used to measure the variance within a set of numbers in this case, your poker winnings. Imagine a bell curve divided in the middle into eight sections. The two sections closest to line in the middle( the mean) will represent ~68% of your population and is the first standard deviation. The second standard deviation is the next two sections to the left and to the right and should be ~27% of your population. The third and forth standard deviations represent 99.73 and 99.994 of your population respectively. As you can see 95%, of your population will fall within two standard deviations of the mean.

With regards to poker, ideally you want to minimize your variance to avoid the risk of ruin, so you want your standard deviation to be small. Two people can both average +$50 per session, but if one guy has results of +50, + 25 and +75 and another +1200, -550, -500 the second guy is more likely to go broke.

I wouldn't exactly say "you want your standard deviation to be small". You want your risk of ruin to be small. The #1 way to accomplish that is to have a high win rate. Standard deviation is a product of your play, not a goal of play.

I've been reading through this thread and want to thank you all for the wisdom here. This year I'll be playing full time and want to ask for some tax advice. File as professional gambler? I think I read Squid say he files as card player but I could be wrong? Also, is there a need for a separate business account if we're going to be writing off expenses. I play online and will start playing live again in a few months. I live in Las Vegas and would appreciate any advice. Do u guys file your own or have an accountant? Thx in advance.

Your goal should be to avoid the risk of ruin which means you should try to avoid putting a lot of money in high variance spots even though they may be + ev. If your bankroll is $1000 and you have pocket queens and some guy goes all in for $1000 with AK you should probably fold even though it is a + ev situation.

Obviously, if your risk of ruin is zero then you should be taking every +ev situation and trying to maximize your winrate.

The IRS does not recognize the difference between a professional gambler and a professional poker player.
http://www.pocketfives.com/articles/tax-qa-585513/#10

Did you check out my spread sheet? I will be filing my own taxes with quarterly estimates. If you live in a state with no income tax my spread sheet will work for you but you might need to make some changes depending on how many more deductions you will have and if you are not filing single.

As far as having a separate bank account, it might be useful if your not good at staying organized. As of now I have several accounts already opened with several different banks. I will be opening another account with a local bank that will only be used for poker profit deposits. Then when I need to I will make transfers from there into my life expense account.

Thanks for the reply. I didn't see your spread sheet but will look for it. I did open a separate savings account at the bank where our other accounts are. I'm just struggling on where to start. I record everything on poker journal. Both online and live. I'm married with 3 kiddos and my wife is an RN. I want to get this right as I haven't before. Thanks again.

This topic has come up many times before.

Players who keep passing on +EV spots for risk reasons keep that ship sinking slowly.

Marginal EV high variance spots are so rare that they are not what breaks players... losing poker breaks players.

This article is out of date and should not be relied on. In particular, it states that you can't show a net loss as a professional gambler, which is not correct. The amount of gambling losses that can be claimed is limited to gambling income, but, under a 2011 case, non-gambling trade or business expenses are not subject to that limitation.

Newbie question for you folks:

Do you calculate your winrates to:
-Include comp rewards
-Include tips paid (to dealer and for drinks)


Thank you!