[OFFICIAL] Winrates, bankrolls, and finances - Page 490 - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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[OFFICIAL] Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

View Poll Results: What is your Win Rate in terms of BB per Housr

Less than 0 (losing)

5 6.41%

0-2.5

0 0%

2.5-5

6 7.69%

5-7.5

8 10.26%

7.5-10

15 19.23%

10+

26 33.33%

Not enough sample size/I don't know

18 23.08%

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12-22-2015 , 05:52 PM

#12226

bodybuilder32

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 1,423

If someone studies 2+2, and actually implements the advice they receive from the highly regarded posters, then that person can expect to make atleast $20 hr playing 1-2, and most likely closer to $25 over 1000 hours and beyond. I am living proof of this.

Quote

12-22-2015 , 05:56 PM

#12227

ZippyThePinhead

adept

Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 948

Quote:

Originally Posted by HappyLuckBox

I propose from now on we should just post winrates based on a 95% confidence interval using the formula:

(2*stdvhrsbb)/sqrthrsplayed

where stdvhrsbb = standard deviation per hour divided by the Big Blind
and sqrthrsplayed = square root of hours played

So my standard deviation at 500nl is $343.93 per hour as shown in Poker Journal
And my hours played is 1333.23
My current winrate is $51.77 per hour

Plugging it in:
(2*(343.93/5))/sqrt(1333.23)
= 137.572/36.51342218965514
= +- 3.77BBs

So I am 95% confident my winrate at 500nl is between:
$51.77-(3.77*$5) and $51.77+(3.77*$5)

Or $32.92 to $70.62 per hour

Using the above formula,

I'm 95% confident my win rate at 1/2 300 cap is between $14.04 and $23.03

Sent from my SM-T320 using 2+2 Forums

Quote

12-22-2015 , 06:12 PM

#12228

Sneaky Pete

banned

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 353

Quote:

Originally Posted by bodybuilder32

You're welcome.

Quote

12-22-2015 , 06:48 PM

#12229

rtd353

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2014 Posts: 3,897

This guy

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...-here-1283096/

Has made over 40k each of the last 3 years playing solely 1/2, he only plays about 25 hrs a week. 15bb/hr is not unreasonable, usually you won't hear about it because the ones good enough to win this rate(def not me) are already playing at higher stakes

Quote

12-22-2015 , 07:39 PM

#12230

suited fours

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 4,143

Quote:

Originally Posted by HappyLuckBox

Agree, except that's an estimated confidence interval on what your win rate was for that period. Likely a good predictor of your current win rate, but not necessarily so.

Quote

12-22-2015 , 07:40 PM

#12231

suited fours

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 4,143

Quote:

Originally Posted by rtd353

And they won't necessarily talk about it

Quote

12-22-2015 , 07:49 PM

#12232

Sneaky Pete

banned

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 353

No sense bragging to people performing under you.

Quote

12-22-2015 , 08:06 PM

#12233

bip!

Slow Pony

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 14,204

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sneaky Pete

No sense bragging to people performing under you.

But aren't those the ones most likely to be impressed

Quote

12-22-2015 , 08:08 PM

#12234

mpethybridge

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 16,997

Quote:

Originally Posted by HappyLuckBox

If I were still a mod in this forum, this would absolutely be a rule in this thread. Great idea.

Sadly, I have no idea what my standard deviation is; don't track it.

Quote

12-22-2015 , 08:11 PM

#12235

Sneaky Pete

banned

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 353

Quote:

Originally Posted by bip!

But aren't those the ones most likely to be impressed

It's true, but if I want fans, I'll ask some kid to draw pretty charts and post them in my PG&C.

Quote

12-23-2015 , 12:32 AM

#12236

ZuneIt

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 2,160

Quote:

Originally Posted by rtd353

He is playing at a casino that affords the opportunity to turn a 1/2 game into a much bigger game. You can buy-in for as much as 1/2 the biggest stack at the table.

Go to page 2. He sits down at a table where a guy has a 2k stack & he buys in for $800.00

That my friends, is not 1/2 NLHE that we find throughout the country.

He is not going to average 40k a year at a casino where the max buy-in is $300, the rake is $7 on $50 with the BBJ & the average stack seen at the table during the week is $225 or so.

Quote

12-23-2015 , 06:11 AM

#12237

Buster65

The Situation

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 2,240

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZuneIt

This is why I think some people find my advice in strat threads a bit odd. This is my home casino. When he talks about people straddling for everything they have on the table, it's no joke, happens quite frequently.

Quote

12-23-2015 , 02:04 PM

#12238

IntheNow

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 363

Quote:

Originally Posted by HappyLuckBox

Great idea! I think this would really help everyone, and make this thread much better. Excellent suggestion.

One more thing I'd add is for everyone to explain the structure of the game where they have logged the majority of their hours at. For example, HappyLuckBox, you often post hands played at deep buy in 2-3-5 nl games that play closer to 5-10nl than regular 500 max buy in games. Were your numbers posted just total hours logged at all games with a $5 big blind?

Anyway, I think this would further help others get an even more realistic picture of accurate win rates.

Quote

12-23-2015 , 02:50 PM

#12239

gobbledygeek

Poet Laureate of LLSNL

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 36,128

Using Happy's formula, mine at 1/3 NL ($300 maximum BI) is:

PokerJournals Standard Deviation per hour: $170.98
Current Hours Played: 2594:55
Current Winrate: $23.71/hr

(2*(170.98/3))/sqrt(2594.9)
= (113.987/50.940)
= +/- 2.24 bbs = +/- $6.72

So I am 95% confident my winrate at 1/3 NL is between:

$16.99 and $30.43 (5.66 bb/hr and 10.14 bb/hr)

Gandyet,forsomereason,I'mnotreallyconfidentinthata tall,especiallyconsideringI'verunat2.32bb/hrover550hoursthisyearG

Quote

12-23-2015 , 03:52 PM

#12240

Dizzyqtp

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2015 Posts: 7,382

What is the minimum # of hours you guys think is enough for the confidence interval to start being statistically relevant? I feel like I definitely don't have enough hours logged yet (probably why my range is so wide) but still interesting to calculate.

Mine for 1/2 $300 Max BI:
Win Rate Std Dev according to Poker Charts: $118.70/hr
Total Hours Played: 383.25 hrs
Current Win Rate: $31.21/hr

(2*(118.70/2))/sqrt(383.25)
=(118.7/18.577)
= +/- 6.06 bbs = +/- $12.13

95% Confidence Interval for 1/2 NL winrate is between:
$19.08 and $43.33 (9.54 bb/hr and 21.67 bb/hr)

Quote

12-23-2015 , 04:18 PM

#12241

zoltan

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 21,490

A CI is by definition "statistically relevant." A CI will become narrower as sample size increases, all else equal. But it's based on frequentist theory.

Quote

12-23-2015 , 04:20 PM

#12242

bip!

Slow Pony

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 14,204

Quote:

Originally Posted by mpethybridge

If I were still a mod in this forum, this would absolutely be a rule in this thread. Great idea.

Sadly, I have no idea what my standard deviation is; don't track it.

You don't have to track stdev. As long as you have session logs with hours played and result - you're in!

Quote

12-23-2015 , 04:29 PM

#12243

mpethybridge

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 16,997

Quote:

Originally Posted by bip!

You don't have to track stdev. As long as you have session logs with hours played and result - you're in!

Yeah, I know I could calculate it from my existing spreadsheet. Not quite sure I have the spreadsheet skills. Guess I'll go take a look.

Quote

12-23-2015 , 04:32 PM

#12244

HappyLuckBox

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 1,491

Quote:

Originally Posted by IntheNow

For my posted CI, i only filtered for games at 2-3-5 (500cap)

Ive since played a larger variant they spread around here called 2-3-5 deepstack (2000cap) which usually has a straddle running too. I log these sessions in my poker journal seperately, and have a decent chunk of hrs logged for deepstack. I also play some 5-10-10 and 10-25 occasionally, in total over 3000 hours of poker logged.

as long as you filter games correctly in poker journal- you can obtain your CI for a specific blind level.

Quote

12-23-2015 , 04:47 PM

#12245

gobbledygeek

Poet Laureate of LLSNL

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 36,128

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dizzyqtp

Great results so far! The following isn't a shot at you (I'm noting that cuz it could be taken that way), but...

I mean, obviously lol hours, but don't the conclusions here (95% confidence in a winrate between 9.54 bb/hr and 21.67 bb/hr!!!!!!) kinda make this exercise a bit lol?

G95%confidentI'm100%unconfidentinmywinrateG

Quote

12-23-2015 , 04:54 PM

#12246

mpethybridge

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 16,997

Quote:

Originally Posted by gobbledygeek

His Std Dev is suspicious. Without strong contrary evidence, I would assume it is incorrect.

Last edited by mpethybridge; 12-23-2015 at 04:56 PM. Reason: post # 17,000, imo.

Quote

12-23-2015 , 04:59 PM

#12247

bwslim69

I'm a Diva, Bruh

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 24,927

Quote:

Originally Posted by zoltan

A CI is by definition "statistically relevant." A CI will become narrower as sample size increases, all else equal. But it's based on frequentist theory.

Bemoreboring.gif

Quote

12-23-2015 , 05:00 PM

#12248

HappyLuckBox

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 1,491

you can also calculate for 99% confidence by changing the multiplier to a 3 instead of a 2.

(3*stdvhrsbb)/sqrthrsplayed

Quote

12-23-2015 , 05:15 PM

#12249

bip!

Slow Pony

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 14,204

Quote:

Originally Posted by mpethybridge

His Std Dev is suspicious. Without strong contrary evidence, I would assume it is incorrect.

There are a few in the thread who have also posted 50~60 bb / hr stdev.. (GG and Garick). It is realistic for nitty play.

Quote

12-23-2015 , 05:19 PM

#12250

HappyLuckBox

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 1,491

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dizzyqtp

ie recalculating yours for 99% gave me a range of +- 9.588bbs or +-$19.16 an hour.

so your 99% confidence range is $12.05 to $50.37

Likely to the lower end of that

Quote

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