Lol HH1 wtf @ V's c/c on river????

Its T/T, 100bb in a straddled pot, good players aren't going to fold AKo in that spot vs other good players

Limp re-raise from UTG is nearly always AA/KK. In general this is a fold even if he has been 3betting a lot. 65ss is a fold too. If you aren't rolled for this game (I don't think you are) you should probably only be continuing with the goods or draws to the goods otherwise you end up in some very marginal spots that are going to be high variance. The QQ hand was only 53bbs deep (straddled to $20 and you opened to $100)

What kind of logic is this?

So don't fold AK if you are playing against a good player, else you are not a good player?

Yep sounds about right

Past the 2,500 hour mark at live 1/3 NL last night.

Overall, the picture looks fine: 8.17 bb/hr

But, on closer inspection, the writing might be on the wall (???)...

The first 1,774 hours (admittedly stopping right before my worst downswing): 10.12 bb/hr

The last 732 hours (admittedly including my two poor downswings): 3.45 bb/hr

Ouch!

GnotcompletelysureIknowhowtobeatmygameforareasonab lerateanymoreG

[QUOTE=johnnyBuz;48574554]QQ is the absolute bottom of my shove range there. How exactly is AKo a standard call in that spot? He was in for $250 and has to call $750 more to win $1310 or 1.75:1 odds on his call vs. a range consisting of 6 combos of QQ, 3 combos of KK, 3 combos of AA and maybe 2 combos of AKs.


You're playing with 48bb's because of the straddle. It costs your opponent $710 to win a pot of $1980(960+960+10+10+20+20). He needs 35.85% equity to break even on a call. His AKo has 38.8% equity vs a range of QQ+,AKs,AKo. His call is totally standard.

Ok! 2.95% overlay.

How nasty can the variance be to our bankroll in a situation like this?
Reason I ask: Chan, on his way to win his 2nd WSOP in a row, won 12 coin flips in a row when it was down to 2 tables.

He did this when either he or his opponent was all-in, one of them had a PP & the other AK. Those 12 coin flips he won helped build his huge chip lead he had going into the final table.

Does anyone know how to do the math to compute the required bankroll to chase these 3% overlays? What if we make a mistake once every 9 occurrences & our opponent would only do this with AKs?

You can prove most things with stats, but you're decision to split 1774/732 for the purposes of this post is presumably based on that being the start of a major downswing.

Why not compare 1250v1250?

The thing is you can't calculate bankroll requirements on what you're suggesting.

We're not only flipping coins when playing poker. This is just a very very small part of the variance involved when playing a solid aggressive game.

That being said 3% is a pretty nice equity edge. Def don't pass these up in cash games when properly rolled.

Casino corporations build empires on much less of an edge.

And to your last statement it comes down to understanding your opponents range. Is he competent? Aggressive? A regular? At 5/10 or 10/10 if these things are true he never has only Aks or AA.

FWIW, your equity calculation is including 7 combos of AKo that I wouldn't be shoving with (only the 2 remaining AKs)

Idk ... if I am putting my stack in the middle with AK, I would like to be the one MAKING the all-in bet, not simply calling and hoping I'm not completely ****ed

If you're not willing to call off your 100bbs Pre with AK in a 5/10 or bigger game at times then you're probably not properly rolled for the game. Strong players will eat you alive.

Ya, I was more posting these just to show the different runs you can go on. The split point was absolutely purposely chosen to illustrate this (right before my worst downswing), so admittedly not a fair arbitrary split point. Still, I do believe the game I'm playing in is headed in a worse direction as these results suggest.

Basically, I've posted a lot of poker-is-easy winrates in this thread, so I thought it was my duty to also post the poker-ain't-necessarily-easy ones as well to be fair.

GcluelesswinratesnoobG

Key phrase being "at times."

I don't think calling a 5! from a guy that has VPIP three times in 75 minutes would qualify as one of those times though.

You're right, I am not rolled for 10/10. However, I'm glad to see that once I get there I can still expect to see the loose sloppy play that occurs at 1/2 and 2/5.

Why would one pass it up if they are properly rolled?

They have a decent bankroll, no?

I understand this. Who, other than rich recreational players, play 5/10 NLHE without that understanding?

I gather from your answer, that you don't know what size bankroll you need to withstand the variance? Chan has already proven that you can lose 12 coin flips in a row * 100BBs is 1200 BBs * $10.00 = $12,000.00

Now add that to the variance of being on a downswing........ and we come 360 degrees back to my question:

How large of a bankroll do you need to be chasing these small edges that is nothing but a guesstimate?

You talk about how they'll eat you alive if you're not properly rolled, but can you tell me what a proper roll is?

Apparently he was correct no? Did u or did you not 5! All in with QQ? If you're only stacking off KK+ and AKs or something you're leaving money on the table 100bbs deep. That's why the guy snapped called you. It's the most standard spot in the whole wide world. What's insane is that you were surprised he snap called u with AK.

Good luck sitting around in a $10 blind game and nut peddling your way to a nice winrate.

It's different for everybody. And the universal answer is it depends...

There are questions that need to be answered. Such as is the player playing for a living as his sole income? Is he able to replenish his bankroll? Some players are def more aggressive with their bankrolls than others. How are the games he's playing in and how often does said player play... The list goes on.

I'd say for the average serious rec player who has other games he can drop down to if disciplined can start taking shots at 5/10 around $20-$25k bankroll.

For the pro who is playing for a living he probably needs anywhere from 50-100k to play this game for a living day In and day out.

I'm a bankroll nit so I like the higher side of this number as I've been on a $30k downswing playing live 5/10. Not to mention the stronger players with proper bankrolls aren't buying in for 100bbs. Usually 300 or more.

I stand corrected some 10/25 added to those losses at that time. But very few hours...

Also play around with a variance calculator here...

http://pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

Gives you a better idea of how brutal it can be instead of talking about one guys smoking hot run in the ME decades ago.

Not sure why you are getting so worked up over this. I made it pretty clear I was taking a one-time shot at T/T due to no other games being available and was just expressing my thoughts on how the game played.

I'm not sure why you are asking me rhetorical questions about my HH. Yes - of course I 5! QQ, and you said he was correct to call with AKo because I had 9 combos of AK and I merely corrected you and said I only have 2 combos of AKs. AKo I probably just flat call and shove all flops. So if you adjust your calculation for only two AKs I'm guessing it will spit out he did not have the equity needed.

But enough of a thread derail...

I mean.. they did just see you shipping and showing down 77 on 9 high

You were saying you are glad to see the same sloppy play at 10/10 for later when the guys call was completely and utterly correct and standard. If anything your play with 65ss was sloppy tbh.

So I'm not following you? You're saying you're only jamming there with 2 combos of AKs and calling every combo of AKo and jamming flop instead? That is your strategy with AK? What about the other 2 combos of suited AK? I just want to learn more about how you're saying you're constructing you range in this spot.

And where did this "9" combos come from? I'm not getting worked up. Just trying to understand how you're thinking about this spot. You were obviously looking for feed back and discussion when posting the hands ITT. I'm just trying to oblige.

You know there are 16 combos of AK total right?

AK is blocked from villain's perspective...