$2kish is a low monthly nut? Sheesh, ya'll be ballin'.

That's not M. It's really a meaningless number without your stacksize.

They can. The difference is that the crusher running 5bb bellow expectation is breakeven in the short term, while the marginal winner is losing.

It does and is one of the reasons I avoid satellites like the plague.

Picturing angry little Asian man in lifted truck

Damn it. I really liked this post then I saw the author. *wink*

For real tho

Here is my BRM advice:

Make sure you have enough money set aside so that you can live for six months WITHOUT WINNING A DOLLAR.

If anyone thinks they're going through a downswing and you don't have 2k hours yet I promise you that you haven't experienced a true downswing yet. I pray that you never have to.

Not that uncommon to run way above or below ev even at 3.3k live hours (~100k hands at ~30 hands/hr)

That's scary to think about

I've got almost 4k hours and that's ****ing terrifying.

I believe it though. I'm down overall for the year so far, to the tune of 1.1 bb/hr over about 550 hours. When I look back at my sessions for a month it's the 2-3 coolers that keep going the wrong way biting me in the ass. (On top of all my other leaks.)

Yea when going through a real downswing I think about "what if this just never turns?" cuz it conceivably could just go on forever until I run out of money.

DGAF had one of the best posts I've ever read on 2p2 referring to the abyss. It's not pretty.

4k hour sample. One 1k hour break even stretch. 2 400 hour break even stretches. Biggest draw down is 60 buy ins. Game sample ranges from 2 5 hold em to my current 10-20 plo. Observed wr is 7 bb per hour. My standard deviation is 18-20x my win rate.

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I remember when I was playing 2/5 on stake and I don't think I had a losing week for like eleven straight weeks. I had so many leaks it was insane but it just didn't matter.

Now I'm 100 times the player I was when I was winning 11 straight weeks, I've plugged probably 95% of the leaks I used to have, but it still doesn't matter when you flop the nuts, get it in, and the chips don't get pushed your way time after time again.

You never know you're running good until it's gone. When you're winning you start reading your own press and think you're gods gift to poker.

Very interesting

Your standard deviation higher I'm assuming because of plo

Curious if u could filter for hold em only because plo is such a different animal

Thanks again

Yeah but that's why it's here. It's a containment thread. Keeps the riff raff off the streets. The op is actually pretty good.

Yep I'm going through something similar after a huge sample of relatively stress free crushing

Amazing how detrimental these kind of runs are to your confidence

Just gotta keep showing up and making good decisions

I'll post my next 1000 hrs when I get there in 2018, games will have probably changed by then so still meaningless

There is an interview with Bobby Hoff in Bart's archived on Deuces Cracked. Hoff mentioned Caro's thing about most guys still playing ran good early on. Then he says people think variance is things evening out in the long run. but really there is some guy somewhere running super hot for a long time and somewhere else is some poor bastard running like a$$ for a long time and that's how things even out... That was sort of depressing.

id go even further and say that any sample size produced by playing live is going to be insufficient to actually yield meaningful WR results.

2000 hours is only ~60k hands. that is nothing. by the time a live player could get to a meaningful # of hours, the beginning chunk of the data is going to be completely useless

Another interesting take would be to look at games played. For instance, any given week I'm jumping between nlhe, plo, and stud. If my hourly figures to be 8ish bb/hr at 2/5 then it's roughly equal to 1BB at 20/40 (limit). That's where having even a faint idea of WR will allow you to make good game selection decisions (esp if you play non peak hrs like me).

even then, it's still not going to be super relevant because if you're bouncing between games, you should literally be sitting in the best game available to play, whether that's NLH, LH, PLO, stud, etc. your WR at those games means nothing because you should be sitting in an ideal situation. knowing that you can beat game X for Ybb/hr means little if you're sitting at tables with way above +EV situations

but i guess it would be helpful if you just say, "i want to play PLO/NLH/LH today..."

Agree.

The "long term" in any meaningful sense is likely not attainable in live play.

In response to someone asking about LA 5/10 NL win rates, limon said the following:

His point was that yearly profit is a much more important goal/measure to plan out finances.

In this thread, most of the posters would be better served by posting their yearly profit/volume numbers and then describing themselves as full time pros, semi-pros, or recs. Then people could look at those results and realize how much grinding would be necessary to achieve their financial goals.

No one should care how sick someone's graph is over the last 400 hours.

What we should care about is how much a full time 2/5 NL pro made in 2013-2014, or how much a 2/5 NL semi-pro made in 2014, or how much a serious rec made at 1/3 NL in 2014. And then compare their volume to see what could be achieved by working harder/being more efficient with time management.

Nice, congrats! Hours?

G8.38bb/hrover2,455hours@1/3NLG

i wouldnt worry about it and just keep doing what you're doing; you'll be well ahead of the average bear if you keep that up