Why would we take your suspicions over the multiple people who have posted results to the contrary?

Also, I don't know what 30k jobs you guys are talking about but the hourly for them isn't $25.

I don't understand this line of logic at all. Why would it be better for one to believe they have to play 5/T+, when the 2/5 games are potentially more profitable?

Maybe cost of living is a lot higher where you are at, but none of the players I know making $100k/yr playing 2/5 have trouble paying the rent.

It should also be taken into account that there is a psychological incentive for some people to believe nothing above 5bb/hr is attainable. If no one can do it, they didn't fail, their goal was just impossible. That's a lot easier for them to accept than that they weren't good enough or didn't work hard enough.

His contention is that it is impossible or at least incredibly difficult to make above 5bb/hr at 2/5.

Imagine there is a forum discussing how bad you are at your day job...

I thought the same thing circa 2011 when I started playing full time. I was absolutely crushing it making $27/hr! Then I made adjustments to my game and came to realize how terrible $27/hr was in the soft games I was playing in. Good players can fling poo at a typical 2/5 table and make more than $25/hr (obviously region/casino dependent).

I'm a recfish though, so I'm unbiased.

Sick maths brah

Facebook?

huhuhuh, he said,

I'm changing my waitlist name to "House"

I don't necessarily disagree with your premise... but the numbers are pretty bleak.

A quick Google search indicates there are about 1700 casinos in N.America.

Let's assume on average that only half of those casinos ever spread games like 5/TNL (or higher), and further assume that on average, only 1 of these types of table is spread per casino . So that's 850 tables, for an extremely rough estimate of 10,000 players in the pool.

Assuming that 10% of that player pool is "winning", and further that 5% is "crushing", that means there are only 500 poker players in N.America that are crushing the mid-stakes games.

There are approximately 525M people in N.America.

The odds that you are in the pool of mid-stakes live poker crushers in N.America is 1,000,000:1 or so.

I bet more than 10% of the player pool in 5/10 is winning, due to smaller rake. The time charge shall set you free.

When you include benefits (and reduced risk of ruin), a $30k/year job is easily $50k+ in comparison, and therefore $25/hr equivalent.


Then there are other intangibles... e.g. making $25/hr as a poker player means you'll probably have a very difficult time qualifying for a mortgage, without a few years of consistent tax returns.

IDK... there are so many stories of the so-called poker pro, who is confirmed busto, regardless of poker skillz.

(Back to the DGAF concept of "good at poker, bad at life/business", IMO.)

I had a conversation with a tight reg that plays in my local game the other day. He claimed that he didn't work any other jobs and just played poker. I see him there all the time, as I drop by after work several times a week for a quick session. But he's always drinking heavily, and often hanging out at the bar instead of playing.

Here's the kicker though. His claim was $5-6k/mo, out of room with exclusively $1/2. I don't see how that's possible.

The room is only open from about 4pm to 2 am, so there are only 10 hours *max* every day available to play, so 300 hours --> $20/hr or 10 bb/hr. But there's no way he's putting in that much table time, it's probably half that while mostly drunk.

I can't wait for the inevitable crash when his results adjust away from the heater.

The number of people that can make it as a pro and the number of people that can beat the game for an hourly that could theoretically support being a pro are two very different things.

Doesn't really impact the win rate discussion though.

yes, having a 30k/year job does not = $25 hour in your pocket but you're also forgetting things like medical insurance that having a full time job pays for, or a good % of, that poker players have to pay out of pocket as well as possible other 401k matching/pensions.

^ t_roy gets it

You're assuming that you'd get a great medical insurance package with the job. And what, would I be putting $20,000 per year in the 401k? Give me a break.

I think anyone's best shot at making 10bb\hr is to play rake free.

Or play deep. Play short. Be the best at the table. Find the softest games you can (find those fish!)

But if you're like Richard and don't know how to stack fish (lol) or don't know how to play really deep and short handed,

then I think it's a pretty good guess that you're wr would be lower than if you played in for ex your regular 9 handed reggy 100bb games.

Can we really call it a 15K roll if 2K per month has to come out for bills?

A) work for the government. Great pension+great health insurance for very cheap. At my current job (non gov) I pay ~300/month med, gov is def cheaper. When I looked last year at the ACA it was ~900/month. Say gov is 200/month, that's 700/month difference, 8.4k right there.

B) let's also not forget about the additional taxes self employed pay that non self employed portions are covered by their companies

C) lastly, an most importantly, my comment was based on the discussion that 25/hr was "impossible", so that was considered the upper, basically unachievable, salary my comment was based on

2015, 1/2 with some 2/5 (under 25 hours) and some 1/3, 1200 hours total

nah dog, cant put $20k/yr into a 401(k). The gubment won't have it.