21%? I'll take the under. :-)

(I faithfully balance mine, and I have three checking accounts.)

Break even??? I'm crushing Bovada for about 70cents / hr.

I assume you meant 2k hours.

And the reason I'm so sure it's possible is my lifetime stats aren't too far removed from that and I am nowhere near a world class player. Or even a great one for that matter. I'll claim "good" but that's it.

I do think I've run pretty well overall but we're never getting to the long run live. The question is can you win 10bb/hr over only 2000 hours and I am certain you can.

So not true. I, a simple rec player, am sitting at 40.6BB/100 over 6K live hands, all tracked.

Not a barg, just happened to notice that what you said impossible I've done three times. I'm nowhere near the best player in this forum, and as I noted above I never made money at OL cash games, though I did beat SNGs OL pre Black Friday.

accurate

Deleted... I suck

You know I meant 2k hrs -_-

you seemed to complete misunderstand what i was saying.

what i said was that the skill gap of an average table of 2/5 vs a crusher is > than the skill gap of an average 200nl table vs a 500z crusher.

in reality, that table of 200nl is probably made up of 1 crusher, 3-4 grinders who are probably fairly good, and 1-2 fish

while the 2/5 table is comprised of 1 crusher, 2-3 ok to solid players, and 5-7 terrible players

i was never compairing 2/5 players to 50 nl players, i just meerly said most 2/5 players probably couldnt beat 50nl and many probably would have trouble winning at 20nl.

600BB is nothing. That´s one bad session of $1/2 for me. Last night a whale was blind shoving. I called in the BB for 300BB with K6s. Lost and reloaded. About 20minutes later, called him closing the action with A4s and lost.

Anybody here who plays in wild deep games lost 5000BB over ~150hrs?

K6s 300bb deep?!?! Do you even have 60% equity? I think that's a little thin.

A4s is a little better given it's a better hand and you're - presumably - less than 300bb deep. I'd have to have 40+ BI deep to even think about calling A4s

Doubt it.

1 crusher = 10bb/hr

2-3 OK player = 8bb/hr combined?

Rake/jackpot = 30bb/hr

Tip = 5bb/hr

10 + 8 + 30 + 5 = 53bb/hr

53bb divide by 5 - 6 players = 10bb/hr?

So questions are:

1. Are there consistently 5 to 6 players losing at 10bb/hr at the table?

2. Is there really one crusher at the table raking in 10bb/hr?

3. Are there 2-3 guys not counting toward the table loss rate?

IMO, I can't see rooms with a lot of players losing 10bb/hr, so the average loss rate must be lower. If average loss rate is lower, then there is less money to be won.

So are there really many players who are crushing it on regular basis, or even just breaking even on regular basis? I think not.

If 600bb is literally nothing, your stdev is ridiculously big.

And if your stdev is that big, how do you know that you are actually a winner in the game?

I wouldn't spend a dime of BR if I were you.

EV=(1200x1.0664)-1200=$79.68. Never passing that up, personally. But, yeah, my roll is more than 40 max BI's.

Equity Win Tie
MP2 56.64% 54.80% 1.84% { K6s }
MP3 43.36% 41.52% 1.84% { random }

Equity Win Tie
MP2 59.03% 57.14% 1.90% { A4s }
MP3 40.97% 39.07% 1.90% { random }

Edit: Also, calling is very good for my image against the regs. I'm tempted to say I would call with 51% equity (enough to cover the drop). ''You have to give action to receive action''

LOL @ calling 300bb with K6s and have 40 max BI.

You no know variance.

Always an easy game when you win.

I'm always snapping there, 40bb in EV is just too good an edge to pass up. Hard to make it as a poker player if you're turning down free money. If you're not prepared to gamble, don't play poker.

The only time we should not consider it is if we are a actual professional and losing our roll means not only no more poker but that our survival is in peril. In which case we've made a terrible mistake getting to this point and not being rolled to call.

You don't know what his max BI is. Maybe its 300bb.

You are double-counting the rake/jackpot drop. When poker players calculate their winrates or their lossrates, they are calculating rake-adjusted winrates or rake-adjusted lossrates. For example, the "crushers" who are boasting 10bb/hour winrates are boasting 10bb/hour winrates that are already rake-adjusted.

In other words, you have to throw out the rake/jackpot number, or you are double-counting.

Tips may or may need to be counted depending on whether poker players are counting tips as part of their winrates/lossrates. For example, I don't bother calculating tips separately from my winrate because I am lazy. I am pretty sure that most recreational players don't really separate tips from their lossrates.

I have no idea what people's sustainable hourly winrates are, and I really don't care. I just think that winrate calculation is a bunch of useless navel gazing for the most part. For some reason, people spend 5x more time/effort on winrate calculation/debating potential max winrates than they do on getting better at poker. I have no idea why.

No actually, I didn't know that, nor did I have any way to do so. In any case, I don't have 2K of tracked hours, but I have had a 1500BB downswing and a 541 hour break even stretch, so I'm pretty sure my giraffe is not indicative of running ridiculously hot.

I'm too lazy to check, but I'm pretty sure there are multiple players ITT who have posted results of 10BB/hr over 2K+ hours.

True. Good call on double counting.

Perhaps there are more winners in this game than I thought.

because one is easy and takes little to no effort and you can have dick wagging contests with your friends.

the other takes determination and dedication as well a level of introspection at ones self on what we're doing incorrectly, all of which is relatively hard in comparison.

You are making an apples to oranges comparison. The rules of these games may be the same but they are not the same game. They play completely different.

You think wrong.

Then why don't they? Why are they so happy to play for pennies online when they can make six figures live? Just because you crush online doesn't necessarily mean you will crush live. This experiment already ran it's course after black friday. I was one of the online guys that transitioned to live poker at that time. Most of the online guys disappeared (and now, 4 years later I am disappearing as well because I can not handle the torturous live grind)


No, that's a terrible comparison. Zoom is even less similiar to a live game than a typical online table. How many Zoom players do you know that play close to 100% of their hands from any position?

You basically ignored few other factors why calling there isn't in the best interest of winning players.

We had this discussion before, but for it to make sense to call, you are playing too low with your BR.

What if kookiemonster decided to have a friend buy part of his action on the K6s or A4s call?

I don't see the point of passing up massively +EV spots just because we are worried about going broke.

For example, there were a couple live pros who passed on playing with Andy Beal and his Texas businessmen buddies who showed up to the Wynn to play 5/10 NL. I know that they passed on sitting with Andy Beal at Wynn 5/10 NL because they were worried about their rolls. So they passed on the free money party where Andy Beal lost 100k+ in 1 session of 5/10 NL.

They could have just sold action to buddies and then sat in the free money party. But they didn't think of that at the time.

poast deleted.

I wasn't referring to you Johnny