Nah, you missed the point.

Lol I get the point. Variance is going to happen. Not everyone is going to go on the type of run he just described live though and it's foolish to compare that kind of bad run to a foregone conclusion.

Silver lining is that this downswing is happening to you at 1/2/3 NL instead of a 2/3/5 deep stack game.

I don't mean to be rude but you really did miss the point.

I can't explain nearly as eloquently as Tommy Angelo so I just suggest reading EoP. It's essential for all players, imo.

It's like, variance is variance. We know it's there, it's what makes poker go. So saying "wait that's too much variance, I only wanted a little" is silly.

Im UP at 2/3/5 this year!!

I also work full time so the money is whatever. But it would be nice to have AA hold sometimes.

So a player with a 1% risk of ruin should react to losing his entire bankroll due in full part to negative variance in the same way someone who knew there was a 100% chance of rain should? Variance is variance, but saying there is a 100% chance that any given amount of variance will occur is wrong. I don't care how eloquently Tommy Angelo put it.

Yeah, this. Tommy Angelo writes counterproductive nonsense. The idea that your reaction to being out drawn should be "w00t! I got it in good!" is delusional. It can apply to one bad beat, or even two, but no one ever ran like UCD has run and said that to all 15 buy ins evaporating. It's not possible, and telling people to try just sets them up for failure. Now they're thinking "why can't I handle this swing like Angelo says to? There must be something wrong with me," when, in truth, it simply isn't possible to be indifferent to negative variance.

I do agree that reminding yourself that you got it in good is a useful way to manage the emotion of losing to a huge suckout, though. But not having the emotions is an impossible ideal.

Tbh my biggest leak is keeping track if I'm up/down in a session.

I think it makes me a fish if it affects me emotionally or affects my play.

Don't really understand why one would track more often than once a month.

You obviously haven't read the COTM article currently at the top of the page.

The major way you run good or bad is all in EV. Tracking your all in EV is child's play. I kept a written record of it (and lots of other stats) for the first two years I was out here. After doing it in writing for two years, I can now do it easily enough in my head, and I just keep a running tally each month, and focus on tracking other stuff.

"I play live, so I can't accumulate data" is a fallacy. "I play live, so I can't EASILY accumulate data is closer to the truth." But if you don't accumulate data, it is a choice not to do so.

I don't understand why you wouldn't.

There's no best answer. Just do whatever keeps you calmest.

Because the swings could adversely affect your play is why I would recommend not constantly tracking.

How can you be so oblivious to your results that you don't know you're downswinging? That doesn't strike me as possible, tbh.

But I DO NOT mean to criticize. This is the sort of stuff people think about when they think they have their game under control--looking for another tiny edge. I think that's fine, but I think the edge comes from doing what makes you comfortable, not what someone else recommends.

Also: I don't see how it is possible to track the information you need to track for the IRS and not have current knowledge of whether you are up or down.

So I just don't really think ignorance is plausible.

If you track your results you may chase numbers. We saw Johnny do this a couple weeks back in this very thread. Chasing losses is neither logical nor productive.

Calculating a live WR over 2k hours is so lol. It's only 60k hands. Even trying to calculate a reliable WR over 10k hours is absurd.

I can think of plenty of live guys who aren't great but somehow always seem to stack the fish, run good in their biggest pots, and more importantly never really run bad for a significant amount of hands.

Obv there's also lots of great players that have had the opposite experience.

--

All that matters is identifying mistakes in the current game you're playing, then estimating your EV you can extract from each mistake by implementing the most optimal strategy.

After that the results are entirely based on variance.

It's not a comforting thought but that that just the world poker operates in.

15 buy ins is nothing.

IRS does not have any daily tracking requirements to my knowledge but I am no accountant.

Sure. But chasing losses is not because you track results, it's because you are a degen. Treat the underlying disease, not the symptom, imo.

(Not you, "you" in general).

But, that's my last, because I honestly think the right answer varies from person to person.

I'm not an accountant either but I'm pretty sure you actually do need to track it and they need to be hand written (ie the irs will not accept an excel spreadsheet). Well, you only need to track it if you're ever audited...

I'm not an accountant either. But I looked it up a few years ago, and ISTR that daily records will be required to withstand an audit, just as they would be for, say, deductible mileage.

So, they don't say, "you have to keep daily records of results," but they do say "to be entitled to a deduction, you need to have a contemporaneously made writing that recorded the event" or words to that effect. Which makes it crazy NOT to keep a daily record.

I don't have any idea what the rule is for amateurs, so someone else may not have the same concerns, and IANALA, and I am not a CPA, so consult a tax professional conversant in gaming law, yada yada.

First 100 hours, 70/hr. Next 70 hours, 0/hr. Final 30 hours, 100/hr.
(Super noob play, everything went well) (Arrogant Play) (Starting to feel it)

I know, Lol absurd 200 hrs, not significant. But Feeling pretty good.

Last 30 hours, not a single significant pot in which I was sucked out. Wahooooo

I think Angelo would agree it's an impossible ideal. I think his claim is that trying to come as close as you can to that ideal makes you a better player. That's what I got from his stuff at least and I agree with that.

There's no "should" or "deserve" in poker, is the point. "Woe is me" doesn't help you. If you are truly the unluckiest bastard in poker and get dumped on at every opportunity, complaining about it won't change your results, and being pitied won't make you richer. That's the purely logical view.

I'm not saying I don't whine about beats or that people should be expected not to. It's totally natural.

only time I've considered/used it is there is an uncapped 2/5 NLO game the town over. There are giant fish in the game reloading for $20k and shoving pf with AAxx. You're going to eventually get stacked if you stay in.

UCD, I think you are making the point that I was making. It sounds like you are running fine at the 2/3/5 game, so be thankful that your horrible negative variance occurred at the 1/2/3 game.

FWIW, I would be much happier at having negative variance crush me at 2/5 NL instead of having the negative variance crush me at 25/50 NL.

That's the kind of justification i make to myself as well, lol. Kind of like thinking of it as a silver lining.

It's either "I could've ran bad at higher", or "they could've had more money back"

It's pretty funny how your winrate is affected SO much by these random factors. Eg. Getting 2 outted by a tiny stack vs. being super deep, or running super hot at 1/2 vs. that one time shot taking T/25.