I'm beginning to think it might take lifetimes to gain confidence in our winrate.

I'm currently sitting at 8.3 bb/hr at 2,398 hours of 1/3 NL. My last 354 hours (i.e. 2015), I'm winning at an OMC rate of a measly 2 bb/hr.

GIhavezeroconfidenceinmywinrateG

Maybe the game is just passing you by GG

Better start recording HH's

You just so jealous of the 2 bb/hr.

GI'mawinner!G

Lol.

M's post actually got me to thinking about exactly how much of our winrate does revolve around AA/KK. I wonder what a only-play-AA/KK rock-it-up winrate looks like?

Gbetterthanmycurrentone?G

The problem is by the time you hit 1500 hours your winrate has changed (Hopefully because you've gotten better, but maybe you've picked up some big leaks or the games have gotten worse)

You'll never know!

this

it's pretty much impossible to ever have an accurate wr for live play. you just can't play enough hands fast enough.

The problem with this is that although llsnl players don't adjust they WILL adjust to extremes. Like playing 1 hand a day or every hand.

but will they really adjust? or will they have sat with you long enough to realize what your doing?

on average we'll get AA/KK once every ~4.5 hours if we're playing 25 hands/hr. i guess after a little while of doing this, you'd probably become known as an uber nit if you play in the same room.


it sounds boring as **** though.

One may argue that KK+ becomes -RIO in a room with mostly regs.

so I am crossing the 400 hour mark at 1/2/3 and am currently in the middle of a 15 buyin downswing.

While I am not worried about this (have played 2 million hands lifetime, I've definitely seen sicker) I am beginning to have my desire to play come into question. I have lost pretty much all AA to KK this year, and the last 3 times I flopped straights I lost by showdown.

How do you guys keep coming in when this is happening?

That's interesting. When I run into bad streaks, I usually can't wait to get back onto the table because I know that I'll be able to turn it around.

just got through updating my AA/KK spreadsheet that I'm keeping for the purposes of the COTM article we did:

Actual WR month to date with AA and KK: 13.25bb/hand.

Equity adjusted WR: 21.67bb/hand.

Variance: Got AA in v KK pre and held; KK < AJo aipf; 4/11 hands were folded to my PFR.

Math: you get AA and KK once each every 8 hours, or one every 4 hours. So 25% of your AA/KK WR is equal to your hourly expectation with AA and KK.

At my current EV adjusted WR, that would be 21.67 * .25 = 5.42bb/hr = $10.80 per hour.

(if you only ever played AA and KK, with that win rate), but you'd lose $10/hr to the blinds per hour [assuming 30 hands per hour at a nine handed table, so your actual WR would be $0.80/hour)

Back to my spreadsheet:

AA and KK have been really swingy so far (true of my whole month, unfortunately), so no firm conclusions to draw. ATM, AA and KK are 82% of my profit month to date; equity adjusted they would be 88% of my profits month to date, lol. But I KNOW small sample variance is affecting that number, I have run almost impossibly bad in three sessions this month and almost impossibly good in one, with only one of my 5 sessions being sort of normal.

It looks like my 50% of your winnings are AA and KK guesstimate in the COTM OP is probably going to be pretty close, even in the small sample I'll have for this month.

I find downswings due to obvious bad luck pretty easy to get over. Eh, got 2 outed, bye 3k pot, what can ya do, lol. But then again thankfully I've never been on one of those of soul-crushing length.

The ones that eat at me are when the decisions are debatable ("if V never has xx this should be a fold... is that in his range or was stacking off spew?", "well that was his 3rd 3bet, he happened to have AA here but could he really have been light?" etc) or I just seem to be spewing without showdown and can never win a pot.

@mpethy -- I remember one of the uNLFR COTWs saying your winrate with AA = your overall winrate. As in you break even with every other hand put together. ofc that's for online and that was back in the day (well, not THE day, the other day) Gonna be neat to see the end results for live.

I can probably tell you most if not all of the stacks I've lost in the current downswing.

AA < KK for 200bb
AA < KK for 200bb
AA < AK for 130bb
66 < JJ on 643r for 300bb
AQ < KJ on AQ4r board (I c/r and called off his shove) for 200bb
64o (bb) vs 23hh vs AA on 578hh. Drawing dead on turn 300bb
KK < A8 on AK8 for 300bb

and finally the sickest one

AA < KK for 400bb.

so yeah, this has been torturous to say the least.

I would consider cashing out with a stop win if it is affecting your psyche, and it certainly seem that way.

Nitpicky, but does this account for AA/KK getting when in the blinds?

Nice catch, lol, I realized it does not after I submitted. Decided to let it go because "surely no one would be that nit picky..."

Ya stop wins, as well as stop losses are pretty crucial sometimes. Especially if game gets really deep and you can get stacked. Im usually not having more than 10-15 percent of my roll on table. Ill push to 20 percent in soft games where I cover since it mitigates some risk.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using 2+2 Forums

Fold pre. You're spewing obviously.

damn you get dealt AA alot, what a tease when it never holds

the sickest beat i saw was AA vs QQ all in pre for something ridiculous like 500bbs deep each, they ran it 3 times, QQ won all 3 times lol. Queen first board, straight second board, queen third board.

variance is such a bish. I also lose motivation when running bad, tho I'm blessed by the poker gods and have yet to experience and substantial downswing, did you consider taking a small 1 week break?

Having this info makes it easy to return since you know the downswing isn't due to your play. You can return with total confidence in your game. It's just variance.

Tommy Angelo writes in "The Elements of Poker" that a player getting upset over downswings due to variance is kinda' like a person getting upset when he goes out at night & it rains when the weather called for a 100% chance of rain. You know there is going to be variance in poker, so why get upset when it happens.

I've never had a 4.5k downswing, but if I did, it would really be helpful to have the info you have to keep my confidence. Since I play live, I won't have it available if it happens.

I do remember hands like when I flopped a set of 7s vs. my V's flopped set of A's & I turned quads & was free-rolling going into the river with a chance of winning 65k for my share of the bad beat.

been a pro poker player for 6 years and the idea of a stop win has never once crossed my mind (degen??)
I mean you have those emotional moments where you think it would be nice to win x amount but then you just think ah yes but what about x+1

I guess pro by definition is anyone who plays poker and has no job.

Wouldn't it be like if there was a 20% chance of rain and it rained on you 7 times in a row when you tried to go out?