being a consistent winner is not easy to start

little changes like a hit and run mentality or even the addition of a bad beat jackpot (more rake, less gambley fest action) can break a slight winner easily.. if the standard is to buy in for 50bbs in the game above and people hit n run, you should just go work at mcdonalds instead of grinding it

Me too!

OP skill level, rake, how deep the game plays generally, lol variance, etc. Not to mention there was nothing said about a sample size.

A huge part of these "is x attainable in y game" questions that rarely gets addressed is how long players who are up on the session and stuck on the session stick around.

If the average fish in the game brings 2 buyins but also leaves when he's up 1 buyin, that's wayyy different and way less profitable than if the average fish will play until he loses the 2 buyins in his pocket or until the game breaks. Not just because raw $ but also when players are at the table longer, it allows better players to exploit meta as it develops. Also obviously if alcohol is involved.

Part of the reason home games/social games can be significantly more profitable (assuming rake equal) is the above but players may be more likely to go deep into pocket on credit/other players at table covering, as opposed to casinos where the fishiest of fish may come and dump 60bb and leave.

It's normal for players at my game to be in the game for 5 buyins, which rarely happens at the casino, and is part of the reason I think ~15bb/hour is sustainable there (1/3).

I guess this is just a detailed way of saying you should know how deep the game might play regardless of max buyin, and if you get this info should help you better understand potential wr (and potential swings, as you will want to go deep along with fish if you have to).

If you happen to find this type of game at a casino, don't leave.

Staying incredibly disciplined at the table is huge in poker. One or two non disciplined hands a session can eat into a winrate like mad. For this reason alone it's hard to beat any game for 5bb/hr

I think the 2% number is confusing because are we talking about 2% of winning players or 2% of the player pool. 85% of the player pool isn't winning at all.

We'd have to start by defining "player pool". Maybe that's a known settled upon definition, but it isn't obvious to me.

Very rough guess, at MDL, 10000 player hours of 2-5 in a given week. (can somebody improve upon that guess?) Equivalent of 250 40-hour a week regs and pros. Of course, lots of regulars play way more or way less than that. Some probably do an every Saturday thing. Talked to one guy awhile back that lives and works in Wilmington NC, makes the 6 hour drive, gets a hotel for the weekend, and had been doing it for many weekends in a row. Then you got the one a month people, the three times a year people, and the once in a life people.

What is the size of that player pool? How many MDL 2-5 players are beating the game for 5bb+? (I'd guess less than 10, not counting the ones who could but mostly play 5-10+)

PS: my "less than 10" is a Wild A$$ Guess, I don't play there enough to have a really good feel for that.

I think people are gonna be mad at me for too much strat in this thread but I think this is only part of the picture.

for example if you flat wide CO open 70bb deep with 85s that is probably a losing play, but it's not really THAT losing, sometimes you stack him, most of the time you lose a few or win a few big blinds but it's your bias that makes you feel like the times you get stacked are HUGE mistakes and the times you win big are fine when often the situation isn't all that different just the hands that happen to be in their range are different.


the point is high winrate players rarely make HUGE actual mistakes, they just lose big pots sometimes but normally the idea behind their line is sound. so if I were you I wouldn't look at it as big mistakes eating their way into my winrate I would look at the errors in my game that are winning AND losing me pots that cause me to blow up.

Mistakes like above are reasons why so few will hit even 5bb/hr.

1bb here, 1bb there, 1/2bb there...

LOL, what is bb now?

you are right. honestly most live players don't realize their winrate probably gets eaten up in this order

1) big hands they win but play poorly
2) small pots that feed the rate that they win and lose at about the same frequency
3) pots they lose and play poorly.

everyone always thinks their blow ups are from hands they lose that they **** up. it really usually isn't that at all. basically everyone melts down at the same frequency so thats kinda a wash

I feel like I could teach a class about what ruins winrate before you even look at your cards

Everyone melts down at the same frequency? Respectfully disagree.

Only posting this for newer folks looking to get both sides of the coin.

Winning players and pros will melt down with a much much lower frequency then recreational gambly players out for a fun time. Also, just looking at pros and winning players, my opinion is the seasoned vet pro who has been paying the bills for years with poker will blow up significantly less than the new hotshot pro. Same goes for the guy who eeks out 3bb/hr and plays once a week on Friday night.

In short, avoiding blowups is huge. Some people blow up often. Others hardly ever. We all want to be the hardly ever guy, that's hard to do.

I am pretty emotionally numbed at the table, but I would add that sometime it is better to put up a show.

Fish wants a show and it's better to feed their emotional needs than to be a emotionless robot.

That's +EV right there, son.

There's a difference between spazzing out due to a bad beat and being a anti-social douche with headphones and shades.

You don't have to be Phil Laak but striking up decent convos with the whales goes a long way. No need for a show, but be a sport.

If the table is straddling, don't be the guy who doesn't because it's -EV. If the whale wants to play the seven-deuce game, fire it up. Limon said it best: winning players are their own casino, make sure your customers are having a good time and are made to feel welcome.

And FWIW you should never fly off the handle if you take a beat Obv.

I think we may be dealing with two different approaches to this winrate question.

1. My approach was, "Can x winrare be achieved by y skill level."

2. Others approach was, "How difficult is it to attain y skill level so that x win rate is attainable."

Those throwing out minuscule numbers are asserting that it's hard to gain that skill level. This is absolutely true.

Those throwing out the easily attainable numbers are working under the premise that the player is already there. That's also absolutely true as long as the premise holds. It's a spectrum obviously, but I sense that maybe we all agree, but really suck at semantics and emphasis.

Edit: I find that it's rare that a temper tantrum aids the table dynamic. It usually just sets people on edge. =less fun, less gambling, less money.

You guys are thinking of extremes when I was referring to something in line of basically acting human.

$15 hr at 1/3, is super simple.

95% of player pool can't pull it off though.
Live poker is far from dead.

the game is raked @7 bux

according to u 95% of player pool can not do it

Therefore it is NOT super simple

Pro tip #144 from skwid

*edit when I say "you" I am not directing this at any one in particular...I just mean general you

just cuz u r on 2p2 and know sum jargon does not mean you are a great player by any stretch of the imagination. As mentioned earlier people have tons of leaks and have zero clue that they have em and will continue to have em. Beating rake and toke aint ez. Beating ridic rake (7$ in a 1/3 game) is even tougher.

Is $7 that crazy? Seems relatively standard.

4bux is standard imho

$5 here with jackpot drop.

fyp

I would say that before rake, 55-60% are losers. I am not sure how many people become losers because of the rake maybe another 15-20%? But even among the winners, the people who manage to sustain themselves through poker is tiny. At most 5% of the total population , most likely 1-2%.

The only reason $7 seems close to normal is because every room in Detroit over-rakes the game like crazy.

$4+1 is pretty common elsewhere.

In Jacksonville, at 2-5, if you steal the blinds preflop, they rake $2 and you get $5.