Ripped from wikipedia...

roll a dice a bunch of times, sum the rolls, repeat... and here is the distribution of outcomes:

Please tell me that those bars are colored randomly and that they don't indicate some other data. That's an ugly plot with some interesting data.

I shared this long ago, but more examples of poker result distribution:


This is much higher variance (this is PLO, deep buy in structure, etc).

X axis is bb.

I already understand CLT better than to need that visual...what I'm trying to understand is why we think it's OK to use normal distributions for hours of poker played. I already understand that using it for sessions is way better than using it for hours (because a session is a sum of hours AND because different sessions are more likely to be independent than multiple hours in the same session).

Damnit, now I know what I'm going to do this weekend ... dump my session database (3500 hrs live) and play with some figures.

bip's own chart:

Good times . Please share ITT after you crunch the numbers.

IMO - The finest grain is an orbit (... hand does not work). Everything above that is just orbits summed/compounded.

The data and stats are not collected per hour... just normalized per hour. Everything is collected as a session. When your tracking software says "stdev/hr" - it is just reducing your session stdev by sqrt(hr).

I am with you on the bolded.

Now THAT would be a fun experiment--tracking profit by orbit (instead of collecting data over a large time and dividing out by time). Maybe I will start doing that just for fun, because no one else ever would.

Mine is not a 1/2 game, it's 2/3 but the structure is horrible with a 10% rake and capped at $20!!! Don't have much of a choice though as this is the only casino within 1 hour. The biggest game that gets up is 5/5 100bb cap with same structure 10% capped at $20. I'm playing more of that game when it is good.

Anyways I've posted at the end of last year but going again to add some fuel to the already raging win rate discussion.




Cheers Mac

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^^^^

Keep in mind he's from Australia, so as far as I understand things, we have to turn the graph upside down.

ETA: Sonofabitch, graph is just as impressive upside down.

GnicejobMac!G

$50/hour with that rake structure is pretty sick. Those players must be awful.

Can you put a y-axis on there, DK? Each bin on the x-axis is a 25BB interval. Can we see the frequency going vertically?

Haha, down under, swing it around 180 degrees you reckon?

GidontknowaboutthatG

Cheers Mac



They're horrid, no other way to put it. Of the player pool in there can count on one hand those that put time into study etc. Additionally the transient style city, heavy in tourism makes for many visiting chumps (globally might I add, some of the biggest fish come from Asia).

Cheers Mac

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Each line on the y-axis is about 2.5%

I probably play shorter average sessions than the average player and there are maybe a couple of dozen <1 hour sessions in there (playing 1/2 while waiting for a 2/5 seat) but eh. The really short sessions don't seem that much different than the long ones and session length is just another form of variance anyway, you can't say "if my sessions were all twice as long I'd have won twice as much" if you're cutting your sessions short for good reason.

Making the full time commitment to live cash in the next few months. Plenty of table selection for 2/5nl and even 5/10nl on occasion but bankroll limits moving up ATM. This is poker in Tampa FL broken up between mostly 2 rooms. Not many other options given my location. And I'm really not a huge numbers freak but I feel pretty good about my play over the last 6 months. I realize its not a huge sample but any thoughts as to whether these numbers are sustainable or anything that stands out good or bad?

Completely off topic but as a frequent member in this thread just letting you guys know that tonight I'm having my first ever amateur boxing match.

Some big nerves now, he's much bigger but I'm much faster which should make for a good fight. Let you all know how I go!



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gl, kick some ass!

Let us know your win rate.

Awesome - GL!

GL with the poker venture!

Question for you full time grinders out there. I have just over 300 hours at 1/2 and am winning about 16/hr(small sample I know). Right now I only have the chance to play poker about 2 sessions a week. Should I be taking more shots at 2/5 with a 9k bankroll?

The only thing holding me back is that I am very critical about my game and I still have some major leeks. My play has come miles since starting to track my results but I feel like I should be crushing 1/2 before attempting to move up.

It's on the low side but it might not be the worst if you game select really well on Friday/Saturday night or during a large opening event of a tournament series.

Though if you're worried about being good enough to beat 2/5 to begin with, you might want to polish up your fundamentals and get rid of major leaks before you start playing higher stakes where there's a larger chance someone will be able to exploit them.

When I was shot taking 2/5, I would buy in/top up my stack to 500, even if the game was a 1k max. It wasn't too far from the $300 comfort zone of playing 1/2, and at 100bb you have most of your options available to you. Interested in thoughts on that.

The 9k is plenty, but you need to be confident. For some - the only way to build that confidence is to play. Whatever is right for you - GL

How do you keep track of tips?

I'm currently reading "with winning in mind" by lanny bassham. It's a great book that really connects with poker. Lanny is a gold olympic medalist and world record champion who wrote how he mentally overcame everybody in his field and a great writter/teacher on top. A++ book I recommend for anybody taking shots. My last shot taking went terribly but I mentally wasn't ready, next shot I will do much better.