Most online 2+2ers seem to have negative redlines. There are a few that flip the script with an aggro monkey super system style, but since live players call too much this style will probably lose live.

Confirmed.

Hey Duke,

$600 doesn't mean much to me. I just really want to be one of those guys who turns their first session into a permanent roll. I did manage to run a $60 buyin up to $1700 over 90ish hours, now sitting on about $600 plus about another $300 on Bovada/ACR/merge. I've run up a few online rolls recently at 2-25NL and 5PLO along with some tournys and SnGs mixed in feel that I am more comfortable online because I am not playing scared money. I don't care about losing if I make reasonable plays since I will have a minimum of 20 full buyins online. Recently, I've passed up a few +EV implied odds spots simply because I did not have the money to be throwing around even if the pot odds and implied odds were great. I always play with a stop loss of $300(I usually buy in for $200) and when I get down I definitely start folding in spots I shouldn't for fear of busting.

I've run into some recent bad variance the last 5 sessions, set over sets, flipping preflop for stacks with gamblers, etc. I did have an 8 session win streak prior to this poor run so I had never really experienced negative variance live, some of which is due to poor play and some just being unlucky.

I am a sophomore in college and just turned 21 this year. I do not have a job but do get a lot of money from my parents, which I don't like spending on poker, even though they are fine with it.

It's not an issue of being able to afford it, rather I would like to prove to myself that I have what it takes to be a winning player at low stakes live poker with the least amount of investment possible. 'Freerolling' with earnings seems like the best way to do it but it may not be practical, especially if I am buying in full each session with a bankroll of roughly 2-3 buyins.

I am willing to go back to short stacking but it is painful seeing those spots where you know you'd have stacked someone if you were deeper. Then again, you can't lose as much short stacked.

Unfortunately, running up a small bankroll relies heavily on factors that are out of your control

What's the largest number of hours that you run bad in a typical year? What the longest stretch of hours where you show no profit or are in the red? 40 hours? 100 hours? 200 hours? I'm just wondering what normal hourly variance is.

(note to mods - I tried posting this question in BBV and couldn't get a serious answer. Please do not move)

I'm guessing this more belongs in the winrates thread.

Gcurrentlyina~150hourbreakevenstretchG

it depends on what level a player you are. Are you playing +EV winning poker? I have heard good players who had bad runs over 1,000 hours but if you are just below break even, it could be indefinite.

I am currently 500bb down over 50 hours after 100 hour 1500bb heater. This game is brutal. Find some online players downswings and when you convert hands to hours it can be really depressing.

hunnneds obv.

More than I'd like to believe is possible.

I've gone on a 100 hour downswing, and spent over a year basically treading water, 500 hours maybe. This is playing mostly weekends and evenings as a semi-rec player. (Longer sessions on weekends, short 2-3 hours sessions some evenings).

Life pro tip: get a job bar tending during college and don't play cards all the time

I had a losing session once.

Well played.

Just had my first win session after my longest run bad downswing in a year and a half of ....7 sessions of 100+hours for about 2 large

It's not just that people are call stations.

The primary reason why your redline will basically always be negative if you're a winning player, and should be negative, is that the majority of your non-showdown losses are little more than you folding the blinds.

For instance, I'm a pretty aggro player, and I play in an environment that is somewhat tight for micros. Despite this, I still have a similar redline to yours, -13bb/100. This is my 5NL graph for the month of October:



However, if you filter out hands that I folded preflop, my non-showdown results look more like this:



A lot of that is from getting folds with value hands. A fair bit of it is from bluffs. Regardless, the point is that in hands where I didn't just fold the BB, I've basically broken even. It's just that as a winning player you are going to give up your blind a lot, and that counts against your redline.

Yeah yeah I know I've been running good. I also ran pretty bad at 10NL and 2NL, so it evens out.

Good point. I'd also expect that at LLSNL, you're going to see more flops than in an online game (but as someone who's not an online player I'm just guessing about the frequency of limping or cold-calling a raise online), so limping and then folding the flop would also drive down your redline.

What is a better game to play ( assuming player skill level is static)

A 1/2 game with a 100bb avg stack with a 5+1 10% max rake

OR a 1/3 game with 100bb avg stack and a 6+1 10% max rake?

1/3.

One game maxes out at 3 bb / per hand.
The other maxes out at 2.33 bb / hand.

I suppose it also depends on raise sizes a bit too.
If raise sizes at the 1/3 game are the same as raise sizes at a 1/2 game it might make less of a difference. But then it would just play like a deeper 1/2 game.
Regardless, if skill level really is the same then the 1/3 game is almost certainly going to be better imo.

Definitely 1/3.

http://www.pokerlistings.com/poker-p...e-real-winners

Can anyone put this into perspective for me? Why is there such a large discrepancy between this guy's 1/2 200+ max expected win rate and a lot of other things I've heard?

Brick and mortar question of course.

He quoted WRs for the limit games in his stakes-categories. 1~2 Big Bets/ hour is commonly accepted as a good limit WR much like 10 bb / hr in NL.

FWIW - his assessment about % winning player distributions is pretty spot on IMO

It honestly could be that his experience in 1/2 is limited because a 1-2BB/hr winner in that stake is doing something very wrong. I know of a lot of posters on this form with a ~10bb/hr over a substantial sample size. I personally have only put in about 600 hours at 1/2 and 1/3 but am a ~8.5bb/hr player with still a decent amount of leaks.

Sent from my DROID RAZR HD using 2+2 Forums

You're right. Long day. I was very, very confused

Ugh, me too. Leaks... Keep that presence of mind as sharp as you can. I find I leak much more after going on auto pilot having played for 6+ hours in a day. Played for much more today. -_- totally making excuses for understanding it should have pertained to limit without doubt