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Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
View Poll Results: What is your Win Rate in terms of BB per Housr
Less than 0 (losing)
5 6.41%
0-2.5
0 0%
2.5-5
6 7.69%
5-7.5
8 10.26%
7.5-10
15 19.23%
10+
26 33.33%
Not enough sample size/I don't know
18 23.08%

04-17-2014 , 06:47 PM
What's the worst downswing you guys have ever experienced? In terms of both sessions lost (not just consecutive sessions, but like worst losing percentage over a certain time period) and total BB's lost. If you're a winning player, what's the worst downswing you would endure before you began to seriously question whether you were a winning player at all?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
04-17-2014 , 07:00 PM
-15 or 20 buy ins.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
04-17-2014 , 07:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Black_Swan
What's the worst downswing you guys have ever experienced? In terms of both sessions lost (not just consecutive sessions, but like worst losing percentage over a certain time period) and total BB's lost. If you're a winning player, what's the worst downswing you would endure before you began to seriously question whether you were a winning player at all?
About $6k over 240ish hours. Playing mostly $1/2NL, varying caps ($200 or $300 depending on the room), with a little bit of $1/2 PLO in there.

Then another 200 hours or so that was just about break even after that.

It was enough to get me to reassess my game and if I was a winning player. Looking back on it, I shouldn't have played PLO in there, and some of it was various forms of tilt (not always calling too much, sometimes folding too much). But there were some really gnarly coolers in there too. 2 outed on the river for $1000 pot, etc.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
04-17-2014 , 07:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Black_Swan
What's the worst downswing you guys have ever experienced? In terms of both sessions lost (not just consecutive sessions, but like worst losing percentage over a certain time period) and total BB's lost. If you're a winning player, what's the worst downswing you would endure before you began to seriously question whether you were a winning player at all?
~$9k in 400 hours at 2/5 and 5/5. Knew I was a winning player but certainly felt like crap.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
04-17-2014 , 08:15 PM
OK, gonna try this picture posting thing. OMC alert.

1/3 2014
http://i1278.photobucket.com/albums/...ps67449a5c.png

all 2014 (including 1/3, plus 2 sessions at 3/5 and 2/5)
http://i1278.photobucket.com/albums/...ps2ff8ac03.png
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
04-18-2014 , 03:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Black_Swan
What's the worst downswing you guys have ever experienced? In terms of both sessions lost (not just consecutive sessions, but like worst losing percentage over a certain time period) and total BB's lost. If you're a winning player, what's the worst downswing you would endure before you began to seriously question whether you were a winning player at all?



Two separate 500 hour break even stretches.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
04-18-2014 , 03:51 AM
i got smashed today ... this little azn girl raped me.. and not the good kind of rape either. the bad kind, the money kind. -3 buyins , so 10k month is lookin prettttty, prettttty, prettty far away now.

my graph looks like




/ \
\
/ \
/ \
/
/
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
04-18-2014 , 03:51 AM
ok that didntgd work like i wanted it to
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
04-19-2014 , 02:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ashes to ashes
i got smashed today ... this little azn girl raped me.. and not the good kind of rape either. the bad kind, the money kind. -3 buyins , so 10k month is lookin prettttty, prettttty, prettty far away now.

my graph looks like




/ \
\
/ \
/ \
/
/
Damn. She raped you so hard that your graph turned into the countdown numbers from Predator.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
04-20-2014 , 08:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by acescracked84
~$9k in 400 hours at 2/5 and 5/5. Knew I was a winning player but certainly felt like crap.
You lost 9 k during this time span? If so, that's quite scary
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
04-20-2014 , 08:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Black_Swan
What's the worst downswing you guys have ever experienced? In terms of both sessions lost (not just consecutive sessions, but like worst losing percentage over a certain time period) and total BB's lost. If you're a winning player, what's the worst downswing you would endure before you began to seriously question whether you were a winning player at all?
200 hours and counting right now. 8 straight losing sessions and 6.2 k downswing at 2/5 and 5/5. I'm in the midst of it now. I've made back half of that 6.2k but it's the toughest stretch I've had
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
04-20-2014 , 08:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pay4Myschool
200 hours and counting right now. 8 straight losing sessions and 6.2 k downswing at 2/5 and 5/5. I'm in the midst of it now. I've made back half of that 6.2k but it's the toughest stretch I've had

Wow, pretty sick. I havent experienced close to that hard of a swing. Think 3 straight losing sessions is my "record".

8 losing sessions in a row sounds horrible. I believe you learn much about yourself and a player during such a downswing?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
04-20-2014 , 09:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilmour
Wow, pretty sick. I havent experienced close to that hard of a swing. Think 3 straight losing sessions is my "record".

8 losing sessions in a row sounds horrible. I believe you learn much about yourself and a player during such a downswing?
Yeah it's humbling , that's for sure 10bi downswings are going to happen occasionally for any pro that plays high variance, but it's a reminder to not take upswings for granted and to play the best you can always

I actually got my stats mixed up, 8 straight winning sessions is my record this year, 6 losing sessions is my max, still a healthy number though
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
04-20-2014 , 09:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pay4Myschool
Yeah it's humbling , that's for sure 10bi downswings are going to happen occasionally for any pro that plays high variance, but it's a reminder to not take upswings for granted and to play the best you can always

I actually got my stats mixed up, 8 straight winning sessions is my record this year, 6 losing sessions is my max, still a healthy number though

Yes for sure. Any losing session is hard, but i think you defintely can come out on the other end as both a better person and a better poker player.

Think my winning streak record is 12 or 13 sessions in a row, wich i am quite proud of actually
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
04-20-2014 , 11:51 AM
Losing sessions in 9 out of last 10. How did I deal with it? By taking a break, should be back in action in a week.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
04-21-2014 , 02:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch
tl;dr
With some basic assumptions, it's beatable with the rake back, esp if you can play nitty. But there's a lot of details that I'd want to ask him before I agreed to play.





So I think that there is a few things to consider here:

How much are the perks worth to you? Do you expect to get value from this 'transportation rebate', do you expect to be eating a lot of the food? Do the drinks help people to play worse?

Also, is he offering you rake back so that you will be a consistent player in the game? So that you will bring other people? Does he have any expectation on how much you will play? Does he expect you to be laggy? If not, this deal is likely pretty good for you as you can play pretty nitty and still make a nice profit on the side.

Also, will he be paying you that day, or will he be holding your money until some later date? Are you worried about the legality of this deal? Is home poker legal in your state? (I doubt it.)

I know these are a lot of questions, but I just want to give you the tools to help you analyse your situation and the possible outcomes.

Having said all of that: The average casino deals 32 hands / hour. (Including chops, hands that are raised pre flop, and no one calls, and everything else.) So, we will assume that your home game will only deal 25 hands / hour.
If we assume average pot sizes of 100bb (which seems a bit large, but whatever) that means that we are seeing ~$2,500 in hour being wagered. Host takes 5% (since it's pretty unlikely that a pot will grow over $1,000) so $250 / hour in rake. If the game runs 10 hours a day (6pm - 4 am), he's taking in $2,500 in rake for the day.

Dealer is getting $20/hour if he's not getting tipped, $200. Drinks are going to cost $200 or so. Food will cost $200 or so. This transportation cost whatever it is will likely cost $200 or so. So, now we are down to $1,700 in net rake. Your 7% take? $119. That's $11.9 / hour in rake back. Not a bad deal.

So, if you are a winning player a normal casino making 5bb/hour which is a true win rate of 10bb/hour (5bb/hour * $2 + $10/hour in rake) you are making $20/hour from your skill in the game. In this game, you are still making $20/hour - $25/hour in rake + $11.9/hour in rake back = $6.9/hour or ~3.5bb/hour. Seems like it's beatable, but will give you a worse winrate overall.

This was really good analysis. So even if we are playing pretty tight, 7% is still unlikely to cover all of our contributed rake? I'm estimating at 10 handed my VPIP is 15% at most.

The host of this game is trying to establish a new game, and he wants me to be a reg at the game, the exact figures haven't been discussed yet but basically i'll have to play twice a week there.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
04-21-2014 , 08:41 PM
i start and end a session on my phone ... i add rebuys ... but i don't hit pause every time i step away from the table. should i not worry about this if it's 5-10 minutes? only worry about a break when i am eating or taking at least 30 minutes?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
04-21-2014 , 09:10 PM
Meh, I'm not doing this for a living obv, but I turn it Session Logger on when I sit, add rebuys when needed, and cash out when I finish. There's so much win rate variance, and you're probably doing the same thing for the most part (i.e., taking a 30 minute meal break once a session), it's PROBABLY not going to make that much difference?

I would think it's way more useful to keep track of mental state and playing level during a session if possible. That would be way more productive/useful I think.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
04-21-2014 , 10:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by IbelieveinChipKelly
i start and end a session on my phone ... i add rebuys ... but i don't hit pause every time i step away from the table. should i not worry about this if it's 5-10 minutes? only worry about a break when i am eating or taking at least 30 minutes?
Who cares really?.. I usually take 30mins every 4 hours (on average). So if I want to calc my actual table hourly then I can, but the number doesn't mean anything to me since I cannot play without taking breaks. I also round up my playing hours to closest 30min to take into account travel time to/from casino.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
04-22-2014 , 05:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pay4Myschool
You lost 9 k during this time span? If so, that's quite scary
Yeah. I got into a lot of high variance spots and all ins during this time span and was losing almost all of them. I still run bad in general in all ins now, but I avoid them like the plague and am on a big heater the last two months.

If anyone thinks this stuff is impossible you are Asian, still running good or haven't played a lot of poker. It's very possible to run bad or hot for three years in live poker even. It's just so few hands compared to online.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
04-22-2014 , 10:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by IbelieveinChipKelly
i start and end a session on my phone ... i add rebuys ... but i don't hit pause every time i step away from the table. should i not worry about this if it's 5-10 minutes? only worry about a break when i am eating or taking at least 30 minutes?
My feeling is, if I'm at the casino, I'm working. You wouldn't take five minute chat and bathroom breaks into account for a regular job and the hourly wage. Imagine telling someone you actually earn 11.17 an hour instead of 10.00 because you calculated how much time off you take during the work day.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
04-22-2014 , 11:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by IbelieveinChipKelly
i start and end a session on my phone ... i add rebuys ... but i don't hit pause every time i step away from the table. should i not worry about this if it's 5-10 minutes? only worry about a break when i am eating or taking at least 30 minutes?
I just include those 5/10 minute breaks as part of my poker playing time, as these mental breaks are typically needed and just part of the game.

I just record my start time and my end time and then round the total time to the nearest 5 minutes for Poker Journal purposes. Course, I don't miss very many hands during my session, with my longest breaks only being bathroom breaks (5 minutes or so); I also eat any meals at the table.

GcluelessNLnoobG
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04-22-2014 , 11:19 AM
As the above posters have said its really about whether you want to treat is as a calculation of an hourly in terms of a job or just to keep track of your progress as a poker player.

Personally I hit the pause button when I'm having meals but leave it running when I'm on break which is typically 7mins, or the time it takes for me to get from the HJ to UTG/BB.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
04-22-2014 , 11:51 AM
Probably splitting hairs regardless of method ...
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04-22-2014 , 01:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Phatty
Probably splitting hairs regardless of method ...
This.

It's all just mental masturbation.

Are you trying to figure out how many hours you need to physically sit at the table a month to likely earn $500 a month? Then make sure that you keep track of your 5 minute, 10 minute, and 30 minute breaks.
But then remember, that even if you are at the table for say 20 hours a month, you are spending an average of 1 hour / month at the casino but not at the table. So, you are still spending 21 man hours to get that amount of money.

Are you are trying to determine your true win rate? Don't. Get a pretty good idea after 500 hours. Play your best poker you can the entire time, profit. It's almost impossible to ever know a true win rate for a live player.

Are you trying to determine if event A is more profitable than event b in terms of $s? Then judge it however you want, just make sure that it's consistent. If you are paid at a 'real' job from the time that you walk in until the time that you walk out, then record the time that you walk into the casino until the time that you walk out of the casino.

You can make your numbers say whatever you want for the most part. You can adjust them up or down, add in time, subtract time, add in promotions, keep track of the value of your comps, and a whole host of other things. But in the end, it's really going to just be a small part of your overall win rate. And depending which thing you include or don't include (and I'm sure you could justify each one in any direction you want) you can make you win rate say almost anything that you want.
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