What I meant was, feel free to attack my logic.

That's a neat idea. Thnx.

I have never used poker to pay bills, but other than that, I used poker for the same kinds of things (vacations and treating people who were close to me) when I lived in Canada.

So let me tell you, from years of personal experience before and after: I was only able to regularly afford things like that AFTER I moved up to 2/5, not before.

RP - your stop loss figures are way too conservative.

While I think the methodology of using stdev to come up with a stop loss seems like good math - I don't know if it makes any practical sense. Why would outlier results indicate it is time to go? By the same logic, the person should stop win when they heat too fast...

Poker results are not very normally distributed in short duration samples... so stdev may not even be a very representative way to model/identify a freak short term result.

As always, I think stop losses are great - but people just need to be self aware of what they are preventing with the stop loss function... i.e. - what leads to non max EV play? Money pressure from big loss? Last buy in on table? Bad beat? ... design your stop loss or stop mechanism based on what makes you play non-optimal. Use logic that skips right around any stdev math based function IMO.

OK since we are talking about standard deviation. Can someone please explain this to me? Over 2k hour sample I have around 320 sessions or so logged. Half Omaha and half Hold em. Now my poker app says my standard deviation per hour is 340.(dollars) My observed wr is 62/hour. (Dollars) when I plug this into a calculator it says I only need like a 12k roll but I have been on multiple 10-15k downswings and I've had a 500 hour break even stretch? Either I'm ******ed or this can't be right???

You would have to break out the sessions by game type and stakes... mixing them together is going to screw up the WR / variance ratio.

I normalize everything to BBs and separate PLO from NLHE

+1.

+1

fwiw my stop loss is right around 2x my SD / session so it could be a decent guideline.. But I agree it should't really need to be calculated as it depends mainly on other factors. i.e. how big your roll actually is, how well you play when stuck etc..

I'm a university student who doesn't have the roll to move up too 500NL and 1000NL yet. I have played poker seriously for less than two months I'm posting this the medium high stakes because I feel like 1000NL players are most qualified to answer this question.

I know a win-rate of 30bb/100 is very high. But I also know that the 1-2 live games are softer than my dick on a saturday night. I have played about 100 hours at 1-2 live and won just over 3.2k

If i do all of the following:
- Play 1-2 live mostly on friday and saturday between 8pm and 4am
- Play afternoons on sundays
- Constantly am hunting for the best table
- Seat change whenever it is optimal
- Never tilt
- Always watch hands of other players
- Send strong false tells
- Am a very good hand reader
- Don't play donk poker

Is it possible to maintain a winrate of 30bb/100, or even increase this winrate? Is this standard for sharks who play 1-2? Is this win-rate from an upswing or is it not that uncommon? I'm asking this on the 1000NL forums because I don't want a bunch of micro stakes players to talk about how 1-2 live is unbeatable. If you guys played 1-2 on a friday night, would you easily be able to walk away with an average of $180 profit every 3 hours? Seems so easy when i put it like that. I wan't to know if i can expect to maintain this if i play good poker my next 100 hours

Rake is 10% to $5 and no BBJ, rakeback is nothing like $5 every 10 hours or something. Buy in is 300NL 1-2. Avrge pot size ranges from $60-$130.

I don't want to brag, but where i play i feel like im probably the best reg who plays 300NL at my casino (kind of like being the highest bencher out of a group of armless children). I just want to know if this winrate is sustainable

You should read the thread...Heck, just read THIS PAGE...before you ask a question that has been discussed already (and is pretty much the raison d'etre of this whole thread).

Sorry if this sounds harsh, but....

Not at all, thanks for redirecting me

Pretty good March, started off bad with a $1500 downswing the first few days, but ended the month on a pretty good run. Probably more 2/5 at the strip this month. These results are all from 1/2 and 1/3:

only Murican in this here thread

i feel like making a graph of my march results.

it was a seriously sick (good) month.

same here but whenever I post graphs I get doomswitched. put in some decent hours too which worked out well..

wj94,

what is your secret to booking big winning sessions?

i must be doing something wrong. i win about 75% of my sessions (2/3), my avg. loss is about the same as yours but my avg win is only half of yours.

No secret...find the deepest tables, punish the limpers, play most of your big pots in position, flop a set here and there, apply max pressure with combo draws.

My March totals:

18 days played
17 straight winning days to end the month after losing first session

Approx. 73 hours

+$5,233

this + obv be able to hand read and barrel good scare cards - ez game

Nice start Chippy!

Hourly not high enough, waste of time.

1/2? I would kill to have that win-rate even over only 73 hours.

Okay, maybe not kill.

For 1/2 300max with Poker Pro tables(50-60 hands / hr) what would you expect a 1/2 hourly to be?

I'm at 40/hr over 300~ hours, I table select, and seat change quite alot as well to maximize +EVVVV

Am I crazy to think I can do higher?