I don't have many poker options where I live, and I am pretty sure the place I play at is tougher than the average poker room. I've come to this conclusion after talking w/ other players who play there and after trying other rooms, including in Vegas.

I definitely have improved over that time. No, I've always been a winning player, started online.

Your rolled easy for most 2/5. Since your a rec player with good job. Dam $1300 nut would be nice.

But $13 hr is a poor winrate. Missing some leaks. Unless the rake is killer.

Bad advice itt.

criticisms are absurd. Youre telling him what his winrate should be in a game thats you know nothing about -- rake, toughness, how deep it plays, etc.

Even if you are correct, and his winrate "should be" higher than it is, the fact is irrelevant. The only relevant facts to whether it is correct to move up are the effect on his hourly and if the increase in stakes would put past an acceptable threshold of RoR.

It is not a matter of focus. There is no reason that he would be less likely to become a better player if he moves up. (One might argue, in fact, that it is more likely).

Since he is only playing part time, it is quite unlikely that he could make a significant change to his winrate in under a year. The idea of a winning player staying at 1-2 for a year plus when he has sufficient bankroll to move up is pretty ridiculous.

I didn't say not to play 2/5, I said if it were me I'd work on improving my w/r at 1/2 first. A solid player should be able to win at least $18-20/hr in any 1/2 game with at least $200 cap and less than $6 rake.

I stand by my advice.
- low nut
-good job
-10k in bank
-10k roll
-1000hrs of play

If you think your ready for 2/5 then take a stab.

Also stand by fact that $13 winrate is not crushing 1/2. Unless there is super high rake. Obviously variance can play a huge roll to.

Have fun
Hope it works out for you.

300/100 is insane. I don't think even HU games are that high-variance unless you play a ridiculous lagtard style.

60-80/100 is closer to the mark I think.

Lol, up 3k over 164 hours. I'd kill to be up half that. Try going on a $10k in 500 hours downswing and then get back to me. Believe me, it's possible to lose every big pot.

Your advice is ridiculous imo, he'd be better off taking his excess bankroll and taking a vacation

Except that 100bb/hr is a fairly normal/low standard deviation for live low-stakes no limit. You get about 25 hands/hr in a casino, so it takes about 4 hours to get 100 hands in. Not saying I know it would scale like that from 100bb/hr to 300bb/4 hours (it probably doesn't), but it was a conservative estimate.

That the standard deviation would be lower over a 4-hour period than a 1-hour period (live) seems questionable to me.

It doesnt work that way.

In the example above, you square it, multiply by four then take the square root of the product.

root[(100^2)x4]

I was making a gut-estimation, as I stated. Thanks for point out the math though - I was just being lazy in the moment.

Yes live EV pretty simple to calculate. Just where your stack should end up based on equites after the hand vs where your stack does end up. Not many ppl know this calculation but its straight from Will Tiptons book.

Much easier to calculate this way. Ive seen every persons hand in an all in this year. Mostly because I have lost.

I see what you are saying, and even tried to do some research of online people running this bad. $9k (22.5 buy ins) under EV in like 2000-3000 hands, even that was hard to find.


I do not see how it could get worse than this. So you think 50 buy ins below EV will happen. I highly doubt that and I even checked via the variance calculator and from what I remember that is next to impossible in live, considering a certain win rate.

I don't think squid was saying specifically that your AIEV was not that bad.

However, in llnl AIEV simply is not that important of a stat. You are clearly running OK enough otherwise so that you are still in the black.

+1

Ben,

You never have to play either 1/2 or 2/5. You can always just show up and look at the games and decide to sit in the better one.

I would certainly not wait any longer to test the waters of the 2/5 pool. Play 10% of your sessions at 2/5 until you see how well you do.

Saying that you need to bet 1/2 for X win rate before you can (occasionally) play in bigger games is not helpful.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

If your living expenses are $1300/mo, and you have $10k in a savings account (that you never, ever, ever, touch), you have just a bare minimum in emergency funds, IMO. 6 months of emergency funds was considered a good buffer for monsoon season, however, the world seems to be working against you now so I would encourage you to save another $5k as soon as possible. Try to get like 12-15 months of expenses saved up and safe.

the only advice that i gave is that he should play the game that figures to make him the most money without crossing a threshold of acceptable RoR. This seems like good advice to me. Certainly better than selecting the game he plays based on the opinions of a bunch of people on the internet that his winrate in a game they have never played in and know nothing about except the amount of the blinds does not make him worthy to move up in stakes.

He certainly could use his "excess bankroll" to take a vacation. He could use it as a down payment on gender re-assignment surgery. Or to buy about 2.25 ounces of cocaine. Or he could use it to play 2/5. What he would be "better off" doing seems like it would be a function of what is more important to him. Based on his post, i assumed that was moving up and seeing if he could beat 2/5.

If he had posted. "Man, i really need a vaction, do you guys think I can spend couple of grand out of my bankroll to take one." or "Wow. I sure wish I had a vagina and ample breasts rather than this penis" or "The DT's are starting to kick in, i could sure use some nose candy" i probably would have posted that he should pursue these interests.

That said, its unlikely that a 6bb/hr winner at 1/2 would figure to have a negative expectation at 2/5. So hes only "spending" this money by moving up in the sense that it would continue to be tied up in his bankroll.

Total Won: $8,035
Hours: 175
Edit: graph doesn't show the -$800 over the last 10.5HRS

That's from 1/22-2/23 mostly playing $2/$3 $1-$300 buy in (130hrs +7.3k), and 27hrs was at $1/$2 $40-$100 buy in (-$71). I dislike the $1/$2 and only played it while waiting for the $2/$3 or if the $2/3 game looked really bad. I will probably stay away from it & just wait from now on..
I plan to grind this game for a while (200-800 more hrs) to build up my bankroll and get a decent idea of what my true win rate is in the game.
After that I want to try out the $3-$500 buy in games in LA (bicycle/commerce) and take some shots at live Mtts.

How big does that $2/$3 game play? It's only 100bb max buy-in, so I'm guessing you're either on a big heater, or people are rebuying like mad and letting stacks get really deep (or some combination). Congrats on a sick win-rate so far.

Also, what is the blind structure for the $300-$500 buyin games in LA? $2/$5? I remember hearing something about them, and the fact that they are referred to by the buyin range, but I don't remember what that limit would be.

Thanks.
It could be a heater &/or a combo of things. The place I play is small so i have tons of history with all the players and they never seem to change much.

The $2/3 game plays pretty big. Raises pre flop are $20+ & some players will open much bigger. You are also right about the rebuying & stacks getting deep.
I believe the blinds are 5/5 for the $3/$500 games.

How much does 2.25 ounces of cocaine go for in today's market? Bout tree fiddy?

I dont really indulge that much, but i understand it goes for about 90 a gram here in vegas, which is how i came up with 5K for 2.25 ounces.

Before you ask, i have no idea how much the sex surgery goes for.

I can get you the hookup on a good female to male sex-reassignment surgeon and it will only cost you like $60k. Well worth it.

PM sent

U payin way 2 much 4 yer blow sir