Risk of ruin/going busto.

this.

when youre figuring out your required bankroll, you get to decide how much of a chance of busto you are willing to tolerate

Moving down stakes also helps ROR ...

SD and WR are both per hour and not session correct?

How do I decide on my ROR?

if you're using the formula to find your ideal bankroll, the % for ROR will be dependent upon your own personal risk aversion (do i want a 5% chance of going broke? 1%?). if you're trying to find your own ROR for your br/games, do some algebra and solve for ROR

The periods and the units have to be the same, but it doesnt matter what they are. That is to say, if your SD is X bbs/hr your wr has to be Y bbs/hr. If your SD is Xbbs/session, the winrate also has to be X bbs/session and your bankroll has to be in bbs.


thats a personal question.... what percentage chance of going broke are you willing to tolerate. A big part of that is what happens to you if you go broke. If the answer to this question is "I am forced into a life of roadside prostitution" or "Teddy KGB tells gramma to shoot me in the face" then the number is probaly quite low. If the answer is "I wait for my net paycheck and start the grind all over again, it can be quite high.

e ^(-2WR*BR / SD^2)

E is 2.7... its a constant i dont know where it comes from.

is that percent of ruin any given session?!

I might be missing something.

I have an income so br management is mehh... but for the sake of this I plugged in a 25% chance of ruin... with a 25% chance of ruin... and my SD and WR and Avg buy-in... it says I need 25 buy-ins... no way.

Ror is not per session. It is the chance of intersecting zero while playing indefinitely.

Buyin never comes into it... give me your SD WR and ill show you how to do it

422.71
50.04

this is at 2/5 100 spread... and done by short stacking

(422.71*422.71)/(2*50.04)*(1/.25)=bankroll

(178683.7441/100.08)4=7090.62


Im not sure if thats in BBs or $(edit -- given the numbers im assuming dollars), but that means you need a total bankroll of 7090 to be able to play the game youre playing and have a 25% of going busto at some point if you keep playing forever.

this might seem like a lowish BR requirement, but most people would say that your acceptable RoR is pretty high.

per hour and $

....

and as i said earlier. w/ 284$ average buyin 7090.62/284 = ~25 buy in's lol

Hey guys, since we are on the topic of ROR and standard deviation and stuff, I'm wondering if anyone can help me? I have a droid so I don't have poker journal, I use poker manager and it doesnt give me the useful standard deviation statistic. I'm hoping that someone can look at the numbers below and calculate it for me. I would like to know this so I can calculate my risk of ruin. I would like to know my risk of ruin for bankroll requirement purposes.



Bought in cash out profit hours hourly Sessions
$339,261 $405,712 $66,451.00 1640.5 $40.51 280


Is it possible to calculate my standard deviation and ROR with the given data or is more required?

The data is from mostly house games. 75% hold em and 25% PLO.


Thanks!

^ to calculate stdev, you need the actual data set of each individual session

ya, you best exporting to excel and then going from there if you can.

youd also need your bankroll

Assuming there isn't a huge difference in the length of the sessions, he can just do it by session. IMO hourly is too short a period anyway. Of course if he does this, he has so few data points as to make the results meaningless regardless.

Thanks for the response, turyia. Lets assume a bankroll of like 80k. The sample consists of 280 sessions and average session length is 6 hours. The longest session is 17 hours, shortest is like 2 or 3. As far as each individual session...yikes! My average profit per session is $238.18. Is it possible to get a rough idea of my deviation without having every single data point?

Don't think I have that information readily at hand. However my best three sessions are $8400. $5585. $5285. my worst three are $5500. $5000. and $4500. Not sure if this helps at all?

The whole point of determining your standard deviation is to determine how much your data fluctuates from the mean if I remember correctly.

Lets look at two simple samples:

-300, -200, -100, 0, 100, 200, 300
Average profit: $0
Std dev: $216

-100,-100,-100,0,100,100,100
Average profit: $0
Std dev: $100

So, that's why you actually need the individual sessions to get accurate results.

That makes a lotta sense. I just exported all my sessions from my app to excel! Gotta go to a game now but I'll work more on this when I return, thanks again

Depends on how rough is good enough.

You don't have enough data to calculate your standard deviation... Based on others reports of observed SD, an overwhelming majority of winning poker players fall between 100 and 250 bbs per hour. which would be 245 -613 bbs/session (assuming 6 hour sessions). Since your winrate is in dollars, you will have to convert those numbers to dollars as well.

Generally, more aggressive players tend to fall at the top of this range, and more conservative players at the bottom... so make a spitball estimate at where you fall or just do the math with 245 and 613 and come up with a range.... not optimal and probably not very precise, but given the data its the best you can do and probably better than nothing.

math is incorrect in both examples... 200 and 92.6

Shrug. I put =stdev(numbers) into excel. I trusted its results.

Never trust excel stats.

Start to 2014...sustainable

This does not include my $1.25/hr in comps

Use stdevp()...