Great post. I need to take this into consideration when I start taking shots at 2/5.

my 2/5 shots have pretty much consisted of taking a 1 bullet (500) attempt at 2/5 when I'm already up ~300 from 1/2, so I feel like I'm pretty much just risking a 1/2 bi and am pretty much free rollin, which definitely helps psychologically. not sure if this is the most efficient way to shot take, def also see the merit of building up a 2 bi shot and just going for it.

also only do this when the br is over 8k. if its under, then I wont even consider sitting at 2/5

I bought poker journal and love it fwiw

With what amount of certainty can a win rate be after only 260 hours of tracking? My SD/hr is a little more than 8 times my win rate according to poker journal. But my SD/session is only about 3.5 times my win rate. I'm fairly certain that this means my playing style that of low variance. Which in turn makes me think that my win rate is more likely sustainable. Furthermore, I'd love comments from players and pros about the fluctuations they've seen in there win rate over hundreds of hours.

Google "confidence intervals". Shows your expected mean of a population using a sample and standard deviation. So like "I am 80% confident I am earning between -1bb and +15bb an hour"

Also fwiw plenty of solid llsnl grinders have 100 hour b/e stretches.

Personally I think llsnl villains have such major leaks that it is obvious a decent w/r can be maintained over time.

I couldn't pass up that great opportunity/seat at the 2/5. That's why I bought in for so much. Going to wait till later on this week when my bankroll is over 10K again to choose another juicy spot. Sucks when you get it in being a 3/1 favorite for a $2000 pot and lose, but I'll take those odds every day when my bankroll is 10K+

11 hours yesterday at 1/2 200 capped for 885 profit. Makes up for the burn from 2/5 last week and the b/e from Tuesday and Friday night. Bankroll is back to 9300.

Is it weird that I average 19bb's an hour playing 1/2 200 CAPPED, and only make 14bb's an hour in 1/2 un-capped and 6bb's an hour 2/5? I mean, 6 bb's an hour for 2/5, no one is really going to complain about that, but 19 bb's an hour on a 1/2 200 capped game is ridiculous. Is anyone else's WR like this and in the same boat as I am in terms of bankroll? I guess it's just because 90%+ of 1/2 200 capped opponents are ridonkulous fish, and 2/5 opponents are more solid, even though every 2/5 game I've played in this year has been like a shootout with 3b's and massive pots and there seems to be soooo much more profit to be made if you play premiums the right way.

I know a whole bunch 'o pros here in vegas - and every one whose game I respect that I have had detailed discussions with about w/r etc. has had 100hr break even stretches (these are dudes with top shelf win rates and a decent sample size)

There is a reason y we have bankrolls...and its not just for show. At some point in time we will all run worse than we thought was possible. Lack of bankroll, overestimation of skill level, and inability to handle serious runbad are the reasons that most who set out to do this professionally fail.

I'm not sure why you think the bolded is significant. Unless youre playing especially long sessions (12 hours plus), the sd/session is higher in relation to the SD/hr than it ought to be.

If the relationship between these two numbers signifies anything, it should lead to the opposite conculsion from the one you draw... but i dont it signifies much of anything.

SD/hr data is averaged from my poker journal app. It is not actual.

Given the sample size of live, SD means very little.

My STD over a 1000 hour sample of 1/2 NL is 213

I'm certain this has been covered before, so my apologies in advance but, how do we calculate alternate winnings into session results? Alternate winnings being jackpots, high hands, bad beat, etc.

I enter them as separate entries, listed as a custom game type "jackpot".
This way when I look at my overall graph they show up in my month by month, year-to-year totals, but when I look to $1/2 NLHE stats it doesn't skew my results.

I enter them as part of the session. You are paying money to the jackpot constantly out of your stack, which subtly appears on your result tracking from session to session. So winnings might as well count too.

I would keep records with and w/o the jackpots. They're so infrequent that they could distort how you're running, but you are paying for them so they should count in some way.

Use this: http://www.castrovalva.com/~la/win.htm

Anyone know of a bankroll / session tracker app, such as poker journal, that works in icloud?

+1

Just hit 1,000 hours @ 2/5 so I thought I'd post the results here...

^^ Nice work!

Rough stretch starting around session 50.

Hrs 50-90 must have been hell!

Nice work.

^Those are sessions.

Yea if I'm not mistaken looks like you had a -10k downswing from about 78-93. Care to discuss this. How did it affect you mentally? Playing bad, running bad or a combo? What did you do to clear your head, stay focused and break it? Take a break/ step back to reevaluate your game?

I'm in the midst of some terrible run bad mixed with some play bad, definitely the worst of my short career. Always looking for tips on keeping my head and getting through the situation. I know 1 day I might encounter another one that's worse.

It looks like 52-90 to me which is almost 40 sessions of breakeven/downswing(10k).

Holy crap.