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Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
View Poll Results: What is your Win Rate in terms of BB per Housr
Less than 0 (losing)
5 6.41%
0-2.5
0 0%
2.5-5
6 7.69%
5-7.5
8 10.26%
7.5-10
15 19.23%
10+
26 33.33%
Not enough sample size/I don't know
18 23.08%

05-28-2013 , 01:57 PM
yeah that is exactly what I'm getting at.

people in this forum think good = great, which is not the case.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-28-2013 , 02:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker
You're setting yourself up for disappointment after just one month, especially one that looks as hot as yours
I don't think $46/hour at $5/$5 is a very hot month.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-28-2013 , 02:07 PM
Of course you don't, hence you think long term at 46+ is possible.
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05-28-2013 , 02:11 PM
Is it that hard to believe your results over 140 hours aren't going to be the same as your results over 1400 hours?
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05-28-2013 , 02:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Rumor
Is it that hard to believe your results over 140 hours aren't going to be the same as your results over 1400 hours?
Not at all. I didn't believe I said anything that suggested it would be. I just don't think <$10BB/hour is some kind of heater month.

By the way, this was my first month of record keeping. Not my first month playing. I have been winning at this level long before this month.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-28-2013 , 02:16 PM
And I didn't say that it was a super hot month, just a hot one.

Any month that's within 1-2bb of 10bb is a hot month.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-28-2013 , 02:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker
And I didn't say that it was a super hot month, just a hot one.

Any month that's within 1-2bb of 10bb is a hot month.
We shall see. Pros I respect have beaten this game for over $50/hour long-term, so that is what I aspire to.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-28-2013 , 02:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker
I dropped 30% in one bad month at 600+ hours.

So ya...quit spewing truth, 11t.
In my last ~30% of sessions I made the same amount as I did in my first ~70% of sessions. This game is swongy, imo.

GhurrayforpositiveswongsG
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05-28-2013 , 02:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
In my last ~30% of sessions I made the same amount as I did in my first ~70% of sessions. This game is swongy, imo.

GhurrayforpositiveswongsG
I am not fortunate enough to have stable games, and my WR varies quite a bit depends on availability of the game or even just certain players.
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05-28-2013 , 03:18 PM
I sometimes wonder if these numbers being so low is purely because the games are that much tougher in the US, and if so, why is everyone going to vegas to play over series?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-28-2013 , 03:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sol Reader
I sometimes wonder if these numbers being so low is purely because the games are that much tougher in the US, and if so, why is everyone going to vegas to play over series?
The games are generally much tougher in the US. There are tons of reasons to go to the World Series. Its the best time to schedule meetups with other 2+2ers. Also you can find some great games. On the whole tournament pros are pretty bad at cash. Then you have the wannabe tournament pros who are even worse.

Going to Vegas during the World Series just comes down to game selection. Some games you have 6-7 grinders who came from all over to grind 2/5-5/10 cash and at another table you have 6-7 clueless droolers and 2-3 grinders.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-28-2013 , 03:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sol Reader
I sometimes wonder if these numbers being so low is purely because the games are that much tougher in the US, and if so, why is everyone going to vegas to play over series?
There's probably a lot of reasons that vary by person and location.

The latter is a very good question. Ike has talked before about the games being better in Chicago over the Series since some of the good players go to LV for a week or something ridiculous but not that many of the fish go.
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05-28-2013 , 03:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 11t
yeah that is exactly what I'm getting at.

people in this forum think good = great, which is not the case.
I don't disagree with you. But we go through this at the end of every month with people poo-pooing everyone's hourly as unrealistic.

I think Vegas is a bit of an anomaly except during WSOP time. I have no way of knowing outside of June/July but I suspect that weekends are considerably more profitable than a weekday reg line-up.

All i will say is if pros are winning at $25-30/hr at 2/5 they need to relocate because there are most certainly casinos where a MUCH higher winrate is possible (I am assuming these are solid winning pros and not LOL live pros).
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-28-2013 , 03:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bwslim69
I don't disagree with you. But we go through this at the end of every month with people poo-pooing everyone's hourly as unrealistic.

I think Vegas is a bit of an anomaly except during WSOP time. I have no way of knowing outside of June/July but I suspect that weekends are considerably more profitable than a weekday reg line-up.

All i will say is if pros are winning at $25-30/hr at 2/5 they need to relocate because there are most certainly casinos where a MUCH higher winrate is possible (I am assuming these are solid winning pros and not LOL live pros).
I think this is basically impossible, though, unless your 2/5 game is terrible or has some terrible rules. If you can really only make $25/hr in it, you are a very, very good player but you aren't so skilled that you are likely to magically make $40-50/hr by moving.

Certainly you can probably make more in better markets (Florida comes to mind) but you won't magically transform into the biggest winner in the game. If you're making $50/hr at 2/5 you're probably about the best player in your room unless the games are incredible.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-28-2013 , 03:42 PM
I could theoretically make more by relocating, but relocating results in horrible -EV.

Ps. 10bb at 2/5 is very rare - let's just accept that and move on.

Last edited by Richard Parker; 05-28-2013 at 03:47 PM.
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05-28-2013 , 03:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Rumor
I think this is basically impossible, though, unless your 2/5 game is terrible or has some terrible rules. If you can really only make $25/hr in it, you are a very, very good player but you aren't so skilled that you are likely to magically make $40-50/hr by moving.

Certainly you can probably make more in better markets (Florida comes to mind) but you won't magically transform into the biggest winner in the game. If you're making $50/hr at 2/5 you're probably about the best player in your room unless the games are incredible.
I said this tongue in cheek but I think a $25/hr "pro" is probably not "very, very good"...but rather ok-ish IMO. Maybe I'm wrong. My two casinos are relatively new player pools so perhaps my results are skewed. IDK but there seem to be more than a few players in one room in particular that are clearly earning more than 45-50/hr.

I could be wrong tho.
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05-28-2013 , 04:13 PM
I think it's quite possible a handful could make $50/hr on the weekend.

But not playing 40 hours a week, no, it's hard to imagine you have that many fish and that the average reg can be that bad, unless you have a high volume of games

I would think in a town where ten 2/5 games run on the weekend and 2-3 run mid-week, there are going to be a few people who can sustain a $40-50/hour win rate.

If there are only three 2/5+ games on the weekend and one or two on weeknights, it's possible almost no one can do so unless the games are deep and there's a fish or two they are built around.
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05-28-2013 , 04:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Rumor
I think it's quite possible a handful could make $50/hr on the weekend.

But not playing 40 hours a week, no, it's hard to imagine you have that many fish and that the average reg can be that bad.
Yes sir.
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05-28-2013 , 04:30 PM
You guys make the games in US sound awful, why would you even play there. Also isn't poker meant to be far more popular in the states why aren't there more non pros playing there?
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05-28-2013 , 04:36 PM
good lord there are some Debbie downers here. I don't think you people understand what I mean by soft games. they stack off for 150BBs with AK on a KQ9 board, I bet 780 into 240 on a 4 flush board and get called. I make thousands each month in spots where I should only make a little with value bets. of coarse ill get sucked out on and coolered, but getting paid off huge with monsters makes up for it.

like I said, im considered by many to be the best 2/5 player in my room, and its a large room, all better players stick to 5/10 plo. when I talk to my friends who are good I don't think im better than them, just better at adjusting to bad players
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05-28-2013 , 04:39 PM
Without online poker paying for TV ads the % of new players coming to the games isn't high. Honestly I think the # of games running at any time is down year over year in my city based on my feel for Bravo.

Plus the % of games which are "high stakes" is limited to very few locales. We're left to deal with the games that are available to us. A large % of the posters here are rec players/part-timers who have other jobs/families/obligations that make moving to LV, Cali, Florida, AC, etc. impossible.

And where else are US players supposed to play? Online is worthless, we don't have Stars or something reputable. Live is all most of us can play. And it's still quite beatable. If you think about it, making even $25/hr is pretty darn good for a hobby.

Poker is still just a niche thing in the US, the % of people in my town who probably have ever played poker in the casino is still extraordinarily low relative to the number of people who have played slots or blackjack. Realistically there are probably something like 2,000 people who comprise 98% of the player pool for our rooms. Of that group, probably 200-250 of them are responsible for something like 50% of the hands played in the market.

This isn't Vegas.
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05-28-2013 , 04:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wheeldog00
when I talk to my friends who are good I don't think im better than them, just better at adjusting to bad players
What do you think being better means then, if that is not "better".
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05-28-2013 , 04:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Rumor
If you think about it, making even $25/hr is pretty darn good for a hobby.
+1

GeveryotherhobbyIhavelosesmemoneyG
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05-28-2013 , 04:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sol Reader
What do you think being better means then, if that is not "better".
I think their style and way of playing will get them further in poker than mine will. they will be able to probably beat 50/100 games and ill be stuck beating up on the 2/5 idiots. im sure ill be playing 5/10, I just don't think my style will make me great at the nosebleeds and their style has that potential
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
05-28-2013 , 04:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sol Reader
You guys make the games in US sound awful, why would you even play there. Also isn't poker meant to be far more popular in the states why aren't there more non pros playing there?
I dunno,

everywhere I play 2/5nl at seems pretty damn soft and beatable.

I've played in CA, NM, AZ, and Vegas

You obviously got your good players and winning players and semi-pros... but there are more than enough fish, droolers and bad regs.

I think the term "solid" is one of the most overused terms in the casino in regards to so-called decent players. No. Most regs and even most winning regs have big holes and leaks in their games. They've custom built a style of poker that doesn't necessarily revolve around extracting max value, but rather around "not losing". Every single time I play, my table will be infested with so-called "solid" players all jawing on and on about "don't wanna be greedy... that's what you get for slowplaying... I hate getting my aces cracked that's why I raised so much... How could you call with that when I raised $35 pre (nevermind that we are 300bb deep) etc etc"

Imo, yes, fish and droolers and mouth breathers are great sources of profits. But to me, an equally big source of my profits come from prison raping so-called decent players. They often have no clue how to play deep and their custom built "not losing" strategy sets them up to make all kinds of mistakes, the biggest one being betting in such a way that the only had that calls them is a hand that beats them. That is based on their pathological fear of "not losing".

Anyways, just my random two cents.
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