Quote:
Originally Posted by NickTheNit
Couple questions for live players At the end of 2012 I was winning quite often at my 1-2 100bbcap game that I bought the app pokerjournal to start 2013, since then I have played 58 hours over 9 sessions for an hourly rate of 31.15$ net, say I had won about 600$ over 50 hours in 2012, is it possible to develop a confidence interval or with what certainty can I assume I am a winning player?
No. 58 hours isn't enough to determine with any confidence you are a winning player. Imo, the absolute minimum time required to say, "yes I'm a winning player" is about 500 hours...
The test of whether you are a winning player isn't when you are a winning... Any rec-fish or donk can win.
No.
The test of whether or not you are a winning player is how you handle your downswing.
How does your game/play change when you've had 3 consecutive sessions of grinding for 8 hrs and working your $200 buy-in up to $900+ and then you flop trip Aces on a rainbow dry board against the biggest drooler on the table that has you covered. You get all the money in on the turn and the drooler hits his gut shot on the river and you lose everything.
And so, in 3 sessions you undergo a $3.5k negative swing losing two buy-ins per session PLUS the $900+ stack you built up.
It is how you play the 4th session that will determine if you are a winning player. Will you sit down at the table and immediately launch into your bad beat stories? Will you start over raising with AA because you don't want to get cracked anymore? Will you start seeing Monsters Under the Bed and stop value betting? Will you start tilting and overshoving weak draws feeling that since everyone else hits bs against you its your turn to get lucky????
Imo, you can't know for certain if you are a bonafide winning player until you face down a horrendous downswing. And it is coming, it will happen, it is inevitable.
Thus, you need more data. Within 500 hrs you will have that downswing and it is how you handle that downswing and your resulting game after the runbad that will determine your true winrate and if you are a winning player...