Quote:
Originally Posted by squid face
for long stretches of time everything goes as it should. Then boooooom crazy crazy stuff just seems to happen out of nowhere. It has been said time and time again. You will run worse than you think possible - and then you will run worse...
Stick around long enough, and you will see some of the damnedest things happen, both good and bad.
*) Roulette (a game I seldom play) at the Hilton: Buy in for $35, and bet $5.00. Betting on black when three reds hit. Change over, and hit 14 reds in a row. The last two or three are table max $1000 bets. That makes seventeen running reds total. (34925.5 : 1 against)
*) Pai Gow Poker at the Sahara: Buy in for $20, and play for the $5.00 minimum. Hit a run that escallates the betting to the $1000 table max. Hit that final win. The next day, the Sahara drops the table max to $500.
*) 15/30 Seven Stud at Caesar's Palace: Get dealt rolled up deuces twice in a row from two different decks (so inadequate shuffling doesn't explain this) and lose big pots both times. Once, deuces full to tens full, and once quad deuces to running queens on 6th and the river. $500 buy cut down to $9.00, and have $7.00 left after the ante, and get dealt split nines with an ace + two flush. Raise AI for $2.00 on top, and get one caller. Four cards don't improve the hand, but the nines are good. This was the beginning of a $900 turn around.
*) 1/3 Seven Stud at El Cortez: Start with $50 buy, and lose nearly every hand until down to last $1.50. Raise AI with kings. Cash out $257 profit. Another big turn-around.
*) 1/4 Seven Stud at the Tropicana: Seen from rail: player running extremely good. Hits four sets of quads within a half-hour. Shown trips, he shows a straight. Shown a straight, he shows a flush. Shown a flush, he has a full. Shown a full, he has quads. He cashes with six racks of whites + change. Never seen a case of rungood like that before or since.
Anything can happen, and if you hang around long enough, you'll see it happen. I've had extended periods of rungood where it seemed I could do no wrong, and periods of runbad where I could do no right. This past year and a half have been pretty lousy. Ridiculous beats like getting it all-in with paired aces, get called by pocket kings and have the board run out with running diamonds and his king high flush wins. Top set over second set, and he nails his one out on the turn during a massive donk-a-thon that should have been worth over a grand, but that one cost me $21. (And I didn't hit my caser to take down a bad beat jackpot that was over $100,000 at the time.) Two $600 losses during insane donk-a-thons where thousands exchanged hands earlier this year.
If the donks "think" it's worth it to call your AI to draw to two outs, and they get there, nothing you can do about it. I've had players beat me with deuces full made on the river because the player
always takes pocket deuces to the river no matter how much he needs to call. Or your opponent rivers tens full because he called a raise UTG with a T
because he always calls and takes any hand with a T
to the river because it's his "lucky" card. And, yes, I know both these mega-fish, and they are telling the truth about this. Of course, they always remember the big wins, and forget all about how much this insanity costs them over the long haul.
That donk who pulled over $600 out of a game where you can bet no more than $4.00 at a time? You can bet the mortgage money that he still recalls that massive win to this day even though it happened 25 years ago like it was yesterday. How about all the losses that come to much more since then? He's forgotten all about that. The fish will reemeber that "big night" when they defied the odds and spat in the faces of the Gods of Probability and will come back and back, chasing that dream, for years to come. That's why they are fish.