Change the cap a bit and 800bb is quite easy.

W cap: on my old 12+hr sessions:
I've been into a 1 3 nl, 100bb cap game for 1700 and left a winner...
I had back to back losing sessions of 400bb (was playing bad during those two for about 2/3 of that)... And this is during a life period when I had significant volume size for lollivepoker, and was a longterm winner.

At 2 5, 200bb, I had a week w wsop in town where I went up a g, went down that+3.5k more, then in 3 sessions made it all back + 4k (had I run like dog****, I wouldve just lost more... Somne of that was aa,kk,qq holding up against worse pps ai preflop for 300-400bb pots).... Vol can be extreme in this game.

The Carolina Panthers lost 12 coin flips in a row this season before winning one.

Get a large enough sample of anything and you are bound to see statistical improbabilities.

If you are going on 4k down swings at 2/5 you are not a very good hand reader.

Llsnl is too passive to ever go on 800bbs. Unless you play like sabr or mask its no way you should hit those swings.

Live players are too easy to read if you really play poker. I almost never see the polarizing spots people see here. Why? Because I range extremely well.

Lol icld

and unfortunately now I know I'm wrong once ilcd agrees with me.

The point I will continue to stand by is that I think it's more likely that people who go on a downswing this big have made a few big mistakes they wouldn't normally make. Although it certainly possible to lose 8BI by no fault of your own.

My use of the word "impossible" is obviously incorrect and I still think 1k hours of live poker is a good, yet, obviously not variance-free sample size.

the issue isn't that you need to lose 8 coinflips in a row, you just need to be running at like 40% over a significant sample size and you'll be down huge.

800 bbs is nothing..................

11t, I know, but I think the 8 coin-flips in a row is an easy way to understand the concept of 'running bad.'

I'm sure that anyone would grant that losing 8 coin-flips in a row is quite plausible.

Do you guys find yourself in a lot of 50/50 situations?

When I am playing I am looking to identify the fish and I am finding myself mostly 66%-100% situations against them and getting my money in.

I can't remember the last time I voluntarily took a coin flip.

I always feel I am the best player at a 1/2 game and one of the best at a 2/5 game and I'll be damned if I am going to give a fish or a hit n runner/double up guy a 50/50 chance at my chips.

Coin flips happen when I was trying to gain FE and failed (big draws vs. someone hitting the TOP of their range).

I find myself coinflipping 30BB stacks a decent amount once I've gotten deep; good for image, and really invokes spew when a monkey gets 90-200 in pre w/ 68s after a failed 3bet bluff and felts AK or QQ or something...
Since I have a hard enough time winning 60/40 spots in my favor, I find that I either want to be betting to generate FE or betting when I'm 75%+ ahead.

Yeah, most the flips I am getting myself into are when I play a flush/combo draw hard or OESFD hard against top of opponents range.

I have never had an eight buy in losing streak (knocks on wood), but I guess it's possible depending on the type of style you play.

My run bads are usually full of running into top of donks range over and over again.

I am definitely way ahead of their range, but way behind their actual hands when I run bad.

+1

All my significant downswuings have been at least 50% bad play that's resulted from run bad.

This statement is ridiculous. Either you play in a very small $2/5 game, or you've only logged a few hundred hours and just haven't run bad yet. I've played live poker for a living for over 3 years now. More then 2 of those years playing exclusively $2/5, and I've experience two 10k downswings within that time frame. The game I play in is an uncapped game which plays big, but an 800bb swing will happen with 100% certainty if you play long enough.

My winrate, through 2k hours, in the game I play in is $52/hour and I have a standard deviation of $626/hour.

I am a big bankroll nit so I keep 40 buy-ins in casino big denomination chips with at least 12 months living expenses in a savings account at all times.

Has there been any discussion of Session "exit strategy"? Given the ups and downs of intrasession variance, it would seem a boost to win rate could be gained by ending a session at the right time within a predetermined window.

Um, that doesn't make sense. Your chance of winning the next hand should be independent of whether you've been winning or losing, only on your edge/dynamic at that moment.

10k downswings are ridiculous. I'm talking about good players. Someone who uses, math, ranges for different gears, psychology, midstream adjusting and able to control tilt.

10k is lolaughable.

Also I have over 3500 hours at 2/5. Never played uncapped games. So your analysis was very off base for this topic.

No it's not.

Those who have big swings and still have 50+ hourlies are good enough to have a big edge and get paid when running good to balance for bad runs.

Those who have no big swings and still have 50+ hourlies are running hot and haven't had a genuine bad run yet.

coin flips with dead money in the pot = hugely +EV.

I like. my sample size is small but I have lost 6 buyins over 2 sessions at 25 and my win rate is over 50

it also totally depends on the game flow we are playing, in an aggro game we will be taking much larger swings

I've had 3 downswings of at least $4K this year. Two of them were close to $6K.

Obv it means I suck at hand-reading.

lol sabr i thought you'd love the part where people aren't polarized because he hand reads so well. Not like figuring out when people are polarized is all about hand reading.

I like to play 5 hour sessions.

As long as I am up $250.00+ after 5 hours I will usually leave.

(I figure $50.00+ a hour win rate is good.)

If I am down after 5 hours, I'll go into "overtime" so to say and try to claw back to even. I'll put up to an additional 4 hours in. If at any time after 5 hours, I get myself back to a $50 a hour win rate...like I have now been there for 7 hours and up $350, I pick up right there.

I don't play for a living and I buy in for $300 at $2/5, if I get felted twice I leave.

My mind is "exploded" if I've been felted twice.

I keep 6k hidden in my closet and since I got back from Vegas last year that bankroll has never dipped below the $4,000 mark.

It has also never went over the 6k mark as I use all the $$$ I win from poker for enjoyment purposes as I have no aspirations to play bigger.

I don't take a PENNY from the roll unless I earn it and the roll is at 6k...

I may go to Vegas this Feb and play some 5/10, but it will be just for "fun" purposes and I don't think I can beat that game.

After coming back from Vegas last year and putting in A LOT of time reading the forums here and listening to Hanson's podcasts I finally feel I have 2/5 mastered at a strategy that's comfortable for me.

iLCD is a master of packing as many contradictory statements into one sentence as possible.