Oooooh, what's your average rebuy count?

.55 or $65.70.
Don't think that stat really means anything though would it, since technically I'm rebuying a lot with the extra 100 in my pocket.

strong stats for teh 1/2 pokerz pony!!

Yeah not too bad. I was at 26/hr for a while but have been running pretty damn well last two months to bump me back up to 29

Very nice. Hope that 2013 treats you well.

Hey all...given my situation, is it too risk IYO to play live 1/2?

Here's my situation. Job searching, pretty certain I'm very close to landing a job that pays at least $14/hour. I have $1400 to my name but about $6800 worth of assets. My monthly expenses are only gas money (~$30/month). Literally no other expenses. I have to start paying back student loans in about 2 months.

I have played online poker for about 1.5 years, and that was mostly sitngoes or tournaments. Steady winner (but did go through a break even period of a few months).

I have played live poker for about 4 years. I have recorded 645.5 hours of live 1/2 no limit cash game play during those four years. I have been a steady winner for those 645.5 hours at $9.89/hour. For maybe the last 300 hours of that sample, I went through what I believe is a breakthrough. I spent more time reviewing sessions, studying math, and discussing hands. My win rate for the second half of that sample is much higher than the first. I consider myself extremely unlucky. I basically remember literally every single hand I have ever played, even from years ago, and I only have sucked out maybe 3 times for all-in pots. I have been sucked out on, for all-in pots, several more times than that. I have lost probably 75% of my all in preflop coin flips.

I consider myself a fairly conservative player (but, surprisingly, 2+2ers often advocate folding when I think calling/raising is right). A large, stone bluff for an entire stack is a very rare play that I'll make. I've done it maybe three times. I can't recall ever making a huge, triple barrel stone bluff with deep stacks.

Is it too risky for me to play live 1/2 at the moment, buying in for like $160 or so?

Too risky for what?
Obv there is ROR and you have to be okay with that. Losing 1400 is possible.
Also You make it sound like you're getting in coinflips pre a lot (I can think of maybe 5 times that's happened to me) - shouldn't be happening very much.

Saying your conservative may be flawed. Most decisions are read based and if you're just playing "TAG" then you could be thinking "Oh I have TPTK lets raise". Not saying this is the case just giving example.

An acceptable ROR of losing $1400 to me is 5% or less.

Would you say my ROR is that high? And no, I'm not getting in pre with coin flips a lot. It's happened to me maybe 6 times or so.

And I most of my losing sessions are because I get it in with TPTK or an overpair and end up being against trips/two pair/higher pair. I've learned to usually commit with an SPR of like 3-4. I've found 5-6 is a bit too high against an unknown.

I think your ror would be higher than 5%. (there is obviously no set answer)
I've had 1400+ downswings like 3 times in the last 500 hours.

Committing with TPTK is usually going to be bad unless you're against a drooler and have certain reads.

Any guesstimate as to what it might be? And my largest downswing was $1026. And committing with TPTK is something I'll do if the pot is like $30, 3-way and I have $100 behind. It's also something I'll do if pot is like $45, 4-way and I have $170 behind.

I have trouble deciding if pot is like $30, 3-way and I have $150 behind. I used to get it in, but after seeing so many flopped two pair/sets from the villains, I've started to lay it down in these situations. Btw, the vast majority of my profit has been from getting it all in with TPTK/TPGK, or an overpair.

This thinking is more of a problem that you lack of a bankroll. Quit thinking like that. If you are going to throw out numbers like this, at least record the hands and have actual data to back it up. Focus on making the correct play. People tend to remember all the times they got a bad beat and forget when they give them. Human nature.

As to your question, $10/hr at 1/2 with less than $1400 bankroll, your ROR is much higher than 5%, imo.

Oh yeah, and since Christmas is coming up, my BR will probably be like $1700 or so (assuming I don't play until then).

I don't record the hands, but still have a near photographic memory of every hand I played. And I'm a strong believer in "never sacrificing EV in order to reduce variance". An exception is if the EV of a move is like -$1 to +$1, which I basically consider neutral EV.

I should also note that I have no fear...I'm not scared money. I'm not sure why, maybe I should be scared. I've played a couple times in the past two weeks. Last four sessions were:

284
-160
32
152

Lost $160 getting it in pre with AA vs KK (he turned a set).

@BenT Why not just plug your numbers into ev++ and find out your ROR?

Stats since late June. Product rising!!

Excellent idea. THe only problem is its hard to find a ROR calculator/formula for live cash games. Most of them are for online games. I found this though:

http://www.rustybrooks.com/poker/rorsim.html

And it gave about 1% chance of going bust. Does that site look accurate?

My stats are: % win = 61.29
%lose = 38.71
avg. win = $235.44
avg. loss = $195.39

This site: http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tools/risk_of_ruin/

Gave me a 2.03% ROR. Sound about right?

Let me make sure I am converting my live stats correctly into bbs/100 hands and standard deviation. Please look over this work and let me know if there's errors.

Safe to say there's 30 hands per hour in live games, right? To convert $/hour to bbs/100 hands...

($/hour)(hour/30hands) = ($/30hands)

($/30hands)(bb/$2) = (bb/30hands)

(bb/30hands)(3.33/3.33) = (bb/100hands) = winrate

To find standard deviation of the winrate, I converted each session's win/loss to bb/100hands. Then I found the mean for all my sessions. Then I found the sum of the squared difference between each session's bb/100hands and the mean for all sessions. Then I took the square root of this value divided by the number of sessions minus 1.

I got an SD of 76.9587 bbs/100hands. Just curious, what's you guys' standard deviation?

I'd buy in for at least 100bb. Preferably 110-120 but understandable if that's too much or room doesn't allow it. Shortstacking = higher variance.

Absolutely risky but as long as you have a steady income and no expenses to worry about there's no harm in it. Just don't play with money you can't afford to lose.

I would have guessed my risk of ruin would be like around 20% or so...but according to TWO different calculators, my risk of ruin is less than 5%. Is there any errors in my math?

Probably. Is this part throwing you off perhaps?

Your Bankroll (in 100's of bb's):

So $1700 would be 8.5 and give you an RoR of 23.8

This was my thinking/advice.

Using 8.5 and my stats (16bb/100 hands and ~76bb/100hands SD), my ROR was 1%.

Where u can buy in max for 200bb deep?!

Would like to get some advice.

Search.

kind of a silly question. I'm sure this thread will be locked.

All that matters is how much you're willing to lose. Are you willing to lose 5 buy ins / $2,000?

If you're a decent player, you shouldn't have a downswing much larger than that.

For now, you're most likely a -EV player, as a winning player probably wouldn't ask such a question. So just ask yourself, 'How much am I willing to lose, in order to potentially become a winning player?'

Bout tree fiddy