2/5 only

I would quit poker if I was putting in any sort of decent volume and broke even for 6months.

It depends on how much you play, and the games you play?

Also I think a lot of good players will play across takes.

I think 6 month break even stretches seem very tough to have... but well I've played <2k hours so whatever.

If you played 7 days a week 8 hours a day for 6 months and got 30 hands/hour ... you're only talking 43,200 hands. All are guesses, but that's a reasonable starting point. I'm sure you could easily find some online player's graph that showed a breakeven stretch of 50k hands.

Yeah but online player don't have 20-30bb/100 winrates, do they? As your winrate goes up, the chance of you losing money over a period of time decreases substantially as well.

I've had a 10k+ month, but it wasn't all 2/5. It would definitely be possible for me to do fairly regularly, I'd just have to put in volume. My overall win rate is $59/hr over 600 hours at 2/5, and $80/hr over 364 hours since I really started focusing on poker again after my MCAT.

How much you win in a month is a function of your win rate and how much you play.

Well, this is true in a sense. If you play long enough something like this will eventually happen. The chances of it happening, again, are related to your win rate and how often you play. If you play less and not very often the chances of a 6 month losing streak being pure variance are higher. Opposite obviously applies.

Anything is possible in poker, but the chances of a 6 month breakeven stretch for a true 30+/hr winner who plays 5 days a week being pure variance is awfully low.

Repost from MSNLFR thread.

Stumbled on this thread. Yeah hard to tell true winrate; best judge is your own analysis. It's still useful to think about for reference and for making life/poker decisions with regards to going pro, moving, moving up/down, changing games, going to play online vs live, etc though.

Anyway might as well post brags. Here are my recorded results since Black Friday:

Overall: $132/hour over 733 hours.

NL/PL only:

372 hours and $71/hour at $700 buyin or lower.

183 hours and $190/hour at 700-2k~ buyin

124 hours and $370/hour at 2k+ buyin.

Some other stats at FL mixed games I played, like 50 hours, not too significant.

These games are taken in the UK, mostly London, Macau, Hong Kong home games, and recently in Australia. Sample not huge, and I ran good throughout, so this is the high end, but from observation, I estimate a bit over half of this is achievable over long run.

It's actually a bit funny that my winrate is basically my average buyin amount divided by 10.

Simply put, you're misapplying what limon says. When limon says it will happen to everyone no matter what he's using a long time frame. A 6 month BE stretch is guaranteed in the long run. However, for less experienced players it's more likely you just aren't very good than you're running epically bad.

People who've never had a 6 month BE in live poker simply haven't played forever. Online, I've had multiple large BE and losing streaks that had varying combinations of bad play and negative variance spanning well over the equivalent of 6 months of live play. The fact that something is reasonable possible ensures that it will happen over a super long time, but not that it will happen next week.

6 months is a very long time in the average 2+2er's life, especially since anyone above age of 28 is basically considered ancient.

I believe someone in the mid stakes forum posted a graph of over 1 million hands with a 200,000 hand BE stretch. Overall they were up significantly.

Yeah but again, what's his overall winrate? Probably < 20bb/100.

It was. I don't rem the actual number but it was def less than 20bb.

Yeah of course it was online, but like probably <10bb/100 as well. I just mean that when your winrate is higher, it becomes much harder to run bad over long periods.

lies, in the past week I have gotten KK vs AA 3x and set over set 2x

I did also have AA vs KK but he flopped quads

My 1/3 NL stats this year to date.

First 138.8 hours: +$300 = $2.16/hr = 0.72 BB/hr

Second 226.4 hours: +$9,963 = $44.01/hr = 14.67 BB/hr

All in the same room (other than perhaps a few sessions), versus the same player pool, with the same game selection ($300 = 100 BB max buy-in, etc.), playing my exact same style that I always do.

Wtf?

GrunninglikegodG

BB = big bet? because bb = big blinds BB = 2x big blind

please get it right

Lol, is this the Limit forum? ;-)

(just so I'm not missing something obvious, a Big Bet in NL is = the Big Blind, right?)

GconfusedG

no BB = ptbb = 2x the blind

bb = big blind

Huh, did not know that. Ya, I just mean bb's then.

yeah just think of it as the QWERTY keyboard of poker winrate tracking

variance, obviously.

Yeah, this, obviously.

At 1/2 online, my WR was ~$5/100 hands=2.5bb/100=1.25ptbb/100. But that consisted mainly of about 100k hands of running like God and almost 200k hands of break even. Low win rate = huge swongs.

In live 1/2, I have run way worse than I ever ran online, but have maintained a positive win rate. So even experiencing the worst run bad I've ever had, I've still managed to pull a profit. So my bigger edge has reduced the variance.

my live winrate is 10x bigger than online in terms of bb/100

if you BE playing 2/5 over 6 months with decent volume you are not a winner in the game