I'm looking for some feedback on my earnings over the last 10 months and advice on what my expectations should be for them over the remainder of this year and into next year.
Up until August 2011, I was a serious recreational player (meaning I was a bit of a fish at some tables, due to a lack of experience, knowledge of strategy and some tilt issues). After experiencing a nasty downswing in June and July of 15BIs in 2011, which brought me to a little under break-even for the year, I decided to seriously assess my financial viability as a player .
It became clear that if I wanted to be a long-term winner, I needed to improve my game in respect of some fundamentals, specifically the areas of strategy and execution. I also realized that I needed a proper bankroll for someone of my relative inexperience, who had a few tilt issues.
So, I got a decent roll together, 60 BI for 2/5, and set to work. Since then I have played 1335 hours (80% at 2/5, the remaining 20% mostly at 2/3, a little shot-taking at 5/10).
Some key statistics:
- Win rate $21.98 per hour
- Average/Session $80.83
- Standard Deviation: $788.58/Session
- Winning Sessions: 50.08%
I should add that I buy-in for maximum ($500 at 2/5, $300 at 2/3, $1500 at 5/10) and chip-up when my stack drops below 10% of maximum.
Where I play we also have a high-rake structure that includes a $10 time charge at 2/5, plus rake of 10% on every pot, which is capped at $10. So, on average, I'm giving between 3-4 bb per hour to the Casino. Fortunately, there are no tips allowed to dealers and players don't have to pay tax to the government on their winnings.
This 10 month period has also included a major downswing.
In the month of January I lost 66.7% of sessions and nearly 20 BIs! This was my first losing month since I started playing semi-professionally in July 2011. May 2012 has been my second worst month with an hourly $10.83 (a key reason for this post). So, 8 out of 10 months I have had an hourly of between $30 and $40.
I should also mention that I still work a part-time job and am only dependent on poker for 30% of my income.
My questions are:
- What can I expect my optimum hourly rate to be? Is it between $30 and $40 (6-8bb) or is $20-$30 closer to the mark (4-6bb)?
- How should I treat my two major downswings, of 15BI and 20BI, respectively, since it is unusual for a winning player to experience downswings of this magnitude, six months apart?
- Do these downswings indicate that I have tilt issues which I can never completely overcome, especially as I have researched tilt a decent amount (by reading Tommy Angelo, Jared Tendler, Alan Schoonmaker as well as Taylor and Hilger)?
- How damaging is the rake/time-charge structure where I play, especially as there is not a regular 5/10 game (which I'm not even certain I can beat at the moment)?
Thanks for taking the time to read this long post.