[OFFICIAL] Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
View Poll Results: What is your Win Rate in terms of BB per Housr
Less than 0 (losing)
5
6.41%
0-2.5
0
0%
2.5-5
6
7.69%
5-7.5
8
10.26%
7.5-10
15
19.23%
10+
26
33.33%
Not enough sample size/I don't know
18
23.08%
02-03-2011
, 07:54 PM
02-03-2011
, 08:58 PM
02-03-2011
, 09:09 PM
02-03-2011
, 10:10 PM
02-03-2011
, 10:32 PM
02-03-2011
, 10:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bubonicplay
Anyone losing more than 5 buyins at 2-5 or 1-2 should quit, the edges are so high that even if you are constantly running bad you should still be making profit.
None of these three simulated winner players would agree with you.
02-03-2011
, 10:51 PM
they agree with me.. For any of these three players, a 5Bi starting roll would be sufficient, provided it was segregated. also, i think your bb/100 is way low. so at 1/2 youre simulating a $3/hr-$5/hr expectation winner.
02-03-2011
, 10:56 PM
Mr. Red goes through a 25 buy-in downswing, but still meets his winning expectation.
Anyway, here is another simulation with 10bb/100...
Anyone who is interested can verify all of this at: http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tool...nce_simulator/
I'm not gonna derail this anymore.
02-03-2011
, 11:01 PM
Quote:
Mr. Red goes through a 25 buy-in downswing, but still meets his winning expectation.
Anyway, here is another simulation with 10bb/100...
All four expect Green hit a -10 buy-in downswing.
Anyone who is interested can verify all of this a: http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tool...nce_simulator/
I'm not gonna derail this anymore.
Anyway, here is another simulation with 10bb/100...
All four expect Green hit a -10 buy-in downswing.
Anyone who is interested can verify all of this a: http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tool...nce_simulator/
I'm not gonna derail this anymore.
Id honestly like to see how many trials you would have to do to get a sample that passed through -10 BI (and thus would bust a 10BI bankroll)
also, i dont see how this is a derail -- if this isnt on the topic of the thread i dont see what is.
02-03-2011
, 11:11 PM
Quote:
there is a difference between having a 25 BI downswing and passing through -25BI.
Id honestly like to see how many trials you would have to do to get a sample that passed through -10 BI (and thus would bust a 10BI bankroll)
also, i dont see how this is a derail -- if this isnt on the topic of the thread i dont see what is.
Id honestly like to see how many trials you would have to do to get a sample that passed through -10 BI (and thus would bust a 10BI bankroll)
also, i dont see how this is a derail -- if this isnt on the topic of the thread i dont see what is.
A few players came very close to busting a 5-buy-in starting roll. It looks like 6 players, or about 12%.
So if 50 players started with the roll you selected (10 buy-ins), and all of them were winning players, all of them except about 1 would never go bust.
At 2% chance of failure.
To the other poster who suggested 5-buy-ins, about 12% of winning players will go bust with that.
02-03-2011
, 11:14 PM
As an example, i plotted 1000 graphs at 10bb/100 and 80/100 sd
i got this
the two absolute worst runs pass through about -2Kbbs or about 20 100bb BIs. That is to say, .2 percent of the sample.
Including those, it looks like about 5 or 6 reach -1000 BBs, or about half a percent.
i got this
the two absolute worst runs pass through about -2Kbbs or about 20 100bb BIs. That is to say, .2 percent of the sample.
Including those, it looks like about 5 or 6 reach -1000 BBs, or about half a percent.
02-03-2011
, 11:20 PM
Quote:
As an example, i plotted 1000 graphs at 10bb/100 and 80/100 sd
i got this
only two out of the thousand (mr red and mr teal) come even close to passing through the two absolute worst runs pass through about -2Kbbs or about 20 100bb BIs. That is to say, .2 percent of the sample.
Including those, it looks like about 5 or 6 reach -1000 BBs, or about half a percent.
i got this
only two out of the thousand (mr red and mr teal) come even close to passing through the two absolute worst runs pass through about -2Kbbs or about 20 100bb BIs. That is to say, .2 percent of the sample.
Including those, it looks like about 5 or 6 reach -1000 BBs, or about half a percent.
The graph is way to compressed to view the number of 10-buy-in bustos. I'd still estimate it to be about 2%.
02-03-2011
, 11:25 PM
02-03-2011
, 11:36 PM
as an example, look what happens when we put the winrate at 15bb/100
that said, even if we use those numbers and the idea that 2% will bust a 10bi roll, I think the statement
"You need a 10BI roll or more to play" is very different from the statement "If you have less than a 10BI roll, there is a 2% chance you will bust it even if you have a positive expectation"
Last edited by AEPpoker; 02-03-2011 at 11:41 PM.
02-03-2011
, 11:56 PM
02-04-2011
, 12:00 AM
02-04-2011
, 12:03 AM