It is. People open rundowns in ep in Omaha. They don't open small scs in hold'em when they are passive preflop. If someone overcalls I'm probably not putting another dollar in the pot if the overcaller bets on a later street, and if someone raises this bet I'm snap folding. I'm guessing UTG has AK, AA-QQ here and rarely a flush.

I'm calling and getting it in on non-board pairing turns. I'm jamming clubs if he checks to me but folding if he bets again.

Snap fold.

And BTW, this HH does not illustrate why playing OOP sucks.

Horrible. You'll get bent over by someone in back with JT

But that isn't the issue. DUCY?

^ yep, being freerolled by JcTx is horrible

Not putting another $ in this pot. 19 awful turn cards, still have 2 streets to go.

Don't care if we are ahead of old man.

The two smaller stacks get better than 2:1 if they shove with a flush draw (assuming Hero and V1 call too). The deeper stacks and V1 absolutely have opportunities to make a mistake.

You're 7way to flop without a club and you've only invested $10? I'm just mucking and not really thinking twice about it. Way too likely you're in a 0% equity situation here. And of the times you're ahead, you're never ahead by a huge margin. Sometimes you're just chopping and getting free rolled. Etc. Easy fold.

When we're 7way to flop, we can assume that people are calling a bit wide. Given the over bet, and the Broadway's on board, we know that the deck is short of a bunch of aces, Kings, queens... So how are people widening their range to go 7way to flop?? Most likely, in my experience by calling with hands like T6s. There is a high probability that somebody has a flush.

I'm always amazed how people find it so likely that if somebody calls a bet with multiway action on a two tone board and the flushing card comes out, that everybody seems to think that villain has a flush. But somehow when the flop is monotone, nobody seems to think it's possible to flop a flush.

Bip said he would show us how to do the math so lets's agree on some ranges and see what the math tells us. Agreed?

I already proposed some ranges. I guess I was missing AxTc and should remove some of the really junkyard suited cards as Ragequit suggested. Which ones specifically? How about the Tc9x,Tc8x combos? Are they always calling OTF even if we raise?

Obviously it's possible to flop a flush, and if someone raises behind us, that is his most likely holding. If several people call a flop bet in a multiway pot on a two-tone board, they have narrowed their ranges enough to make it likely that someone has a flush draw, but in a situation where no one besides UTG has narrowed their preflop range it is unlikely enough for someone to have flopped a flush that we can't fold yet.

This situation would be analogous to when the flop checks through in a multiway pot with the pfr on the button and a flushing card comes on the turn, UTG excepted.

Ok, well the other thing here is this is a risk vs reward situation. The more action we get, the more invested we become, the more likely we're behind. I'd have no problem calling off if we only had $100-$200 behind, but given stack depth we're just in for a world of hurt by continuing here. I mean call/folding is really bad as we're going to get into situations where our pot odds are too good to fold. Just shipping is really bad as we're getting close to 0% equity when somebody behind us calls, and we're really only expecting to be something like 65-35 vs the first bet as it is. We are handcuffed here and I have played a lot of deep stack poker and I can't possibly imagine that this is a profitable call.

I'm closing my eyes and jamming.

Cookie I appreciate the effort of doing the math here, but really is it even worth it? How often does this situation come up lol. 8 players to a raised flop as Utg+1 flopped "nut" straight on single suited board after UTG overpets pot. You'll never be able to calculate it at the table and it's never going to happen again lol.

After running some numbers, it looks like the single most important thing to consider in this hand is the ratio of suited hands to unsuited hands. Because of how many people are left to act, if each player folds 85% of the time it is profitable to continue, and if each player folds 80% of the time it is unprofitable to continue.

I think this is a good approximation of our ev is we shove:

(1-(1-49/x)^5)(.23*890-.77*410)+((1-49/x)^5)(.7*480-.3*410)=ev

where x=292+.9375y and y=(total preflop combos - 292) and,

we assume someone that every preflop caller calls with these hands preflop and always calls a shove with them:
JcJ,AJc,KJc,QJc, JT, Jc9x,AxTc,Jc8x,Tc9c-Tc8c,9c8c-9c7c,8c7c-8c6c,7c6c-7c5c,6c5c-6c4c,5c4c
(49 combos)

And that every player calls with a minimum of this range preflop:
JJ-22,AQ-AT,KQ-KT,QJ-QT,JT-J9,T9-T8,98,Ax9x-Ax2x,Kx9x,Qx9x,9x7x,8x7x-8x6x,7x6x-7x5x,6x5x-6x4x,5x4x
(292 combos)

And UTG has a range of:
AA-QQ, JcJx, AK

x=292+.9375y, because for every 16 combos we add to this preflop range for the purpose of seeing how often each V will fold, 1 of those combos will make a flush on this flop. It's actually important not to simplify this to 292+y because the overall ev equation is really sensitive to how often each villain will fold, so it's important to get it as close to correct as possible.

In the baseline scenario
ev = (1-(1-49/292)^5)(.23*890-.77*410)+(1-49/292)^5)(.7*480-.3*410) = ~$18

The wider each player is overcalling preflop, the more profitable shoving is here. If everyone is calling with 40% of hands preflop
ev = (1-(1-49/405)^5)(.23*890-.77*410)+((1-49/405)^5)(.7*480-.3*410)= ~$59

Against 35% of hands
ev = (1-(1-49/352)^5)(.23*890-.77*410)+((1-49/352)^5)(.7*480-.3*410) = ~$42

I think preflop ranges for overcalls should generally be weighted more towards suited junk than unsuited junk...

Yeah, I think it would be most accurate to make the y coefficient closer to .85, but I think people tend to overcall with hands like 76o, though, which is a lot of combos, so it for sure needs to be significantly higher than .75, which is the absolute lowest it could be.

+1x10^1000

This isn't a lesson about position, and it isn't a lesson about the chance of flopping a flush. This is all about reverse implied odds. After you've seen it enough times, you get it.

Most people think about RIO when considering a problem OTF. This HH just walks it back to PF. This is about the RIO of playing suited connectors PF.

It's a snap fold OTF.

For everyone who's claiming fold pre, this hand demonstrates exactly why this hand can be a profitable call.

Re: the old man/UTGs range: I think this is very rarely a flush(never royal) and almost always sets/top 2 because of sizing/lolliveplayer tendencies. Vs him our hand does fine to very good(AK).

Flatting seems best now. Shoving would be better at shallower stacks(obv). Going broke vs gambly, rec, and unknown. Future action by TAG can probably be folded to.

Poker is not about waiting for better spots, getting away when you "only have $10" in, or protecting your stack. Poker is about making the best possible decision always. Fear, bankroll, and the chance of being wrong or drawing dead tends to push us toward non-optimal play at every opportunity.

Beginning/weak players usually know the right moves long before they start making them. They know what the correct play is, but instead fold and wait for a better spot. They are afraid to lose medium to big pots some of the time, so instead lose small and medium pots all of the time. Before they know it, they are sticking their last 15bbs in the middle with 55 and wondering where it all went. Once you stop caring about money and stop fearing deep stacked play, you can start winning.

I like waiting for better spots though. Less stressful.

^ Coincidentally, flatting will seem best to the guy behind you holding JT Welcome to value town, population you.
^ Max Rofls. Hero has $10 in the pot.

V's bet of 180 definately looks like AK or AQ.

If we shove, we definately look like a baby flush, so hardly any value in that. the only benefit of shoving is that we might get a smaller flushes behind us to fold.

Nothing we can really do here but flat, and shove when a brick hits the turn.

and only ever folding if the turn is a or an A.

^Well, at least someone finally hit the nail on the head. All that hero is ever doing here, unless he mucks, is turning his hand into a bluff. If he calls, it's a call-bluff.

^After you stop turning made hands into bluffs, you can become a winning player.


"Sweet degeneracy; financial suicide's incredibly amusing.
Don't talk to me about strategy; it's not allowed because I find it so confusing."

I really don't think anyone will be folding a baby flush when you shove.

I wanna call, see what happens. Not folding the flop, and definitely not folding pre-flop.

Famous last words of a poker player

Calling isn't a bluff, hero can be fairly confident of beating V1 and likely crushing V1's two pair. The problem here is the 4 people after hero to act on flop. How many of them have a hand here?

A raise likely limits villains to flopped flushes, the few hands that are free rolling hero and possibly sets/big draws. A raise is a bluff against the people behind hero, but if hero folds he is throwing away a lot of equity in the cases where everybody behind folds.

Lol at folding JT pre when you know 6 people are seeing the flop and most 1/3 villians are only 3 betting QQ or better.

It's a heck of a lot easier to sit here and read this hand on 2plus2 and say 'Fold.' Yes, we have the OR beat probably.

But ... $10 is a very small open for a $1/$3 game. Is this standard at this table OP? Or is this more indicative of a hand like 89 sooted?

If $10 is small, then you are going to see a lot more suited connectors once the string of callers begins. Especially since stacks are relatively deep.

I think the right move is to fold because we could be drawing dead and because we are OOP and therefore lack enough info from the rest of the field to make an educated decision here.