Why does the solver have no bluffs here? - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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Why does the solver have no bluffs here?

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05-19-2024 , 01:44 PM

pokerman2718

stranger

Join Date: May 2024 Posts: 3

In this spot, the solver only raises when holding the nut straight. It has no bluffs to balance it's value.

The board is four-to-a-straight with a possible flush draw. Anyone with access to GTO Wizard can access a link to the full analysis: https://app.gtowizard.com/solutions?...actions=R10.15

I thought that you were supposed to have bluffs in every spot? Apparently not? Can anyone explain the solver's behavior here?

ps. This is my first post on 2+2. Please tell me if I need to include more information.

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05-19-2024 , 02:01 PM

TripleBerryJam

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2023 Posts: 537

Usually looking at villain's response will make it pretty clear why something happens in equilibrium

Here they're folding the nuts 60.7% of the time (and 100% of the time without a heart) vs a shove because they don't have enough equity to call versus a straight+flush draw

You see a similar dynamic on other 4-straight turn betting spots where you can go for >2x overbets to make straights/sets indifferent

It's actually a really nice exploit IP sometimes because people won't donk shove enough when the improve on the river

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05-19-2024 , 02:17 PM

CallMeVernon

COTM Crusher

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 4,111

I may be missing something but it seems to me like the reason you can’t have bluffs is because any bluff is -EV. The reason any bluff is -EV is because if you are bluffing you can run into the Qh enough for that bluff to never be 0EV and always less.

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05-19-2024 , 02:28 PM

pokerman2718

stranger

Join Date: May 2024 Posts: 3

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But if you don't have bluffs, how can you bet for value?

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Here they're folding the nuts 60.7% of the time (and 100% of the time without a heart) vs a shove because they don't have enough equity to call versus a straight+flush draw

Might is be reasonable to suggest that hero's offsuit queens are the "bluffs" here? These hands are at the bottom of hero's raising range and can even be behind some hands in villain's continuation range. As I understand it, thin value can serve the same purpose as a bluff. So, we might say that hero has no bluffs here, but only thin value?

Last edited by pokerman2718; 05-19-2024 at 02:29 PM. Reason: Formatting

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05-19-2024 , 05:18 PM

Tomark

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 2,957

Equity before the river isnt 0%, the non heart straights are basically “bluffs”. Youre betting 7x pot so Qhxh is value vs other Q, and the regular straights are semibluffs and are behind if V has Qhxh.

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05-19-2024 , 05:19 PM

illiterat

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 2,531

Quote:

Originally Posted by pokerman2718

In this spot, the solver only raises when holding the nut straight. It has no bluffs to balance it's value.

The solver does what it does, and is perfect with it's range because it tried everything else and it was worse ... it doesn't "think" or "try to create a balanced strategy" in the way you are thinking about it.

In this case though I'd guess that the "balance" is around V folding the shared nuts. So H shoves a bunch of nuts+redraw hands and some nuts + blocker to redraw hands ... then V is forced to fold the plain nuts some of the time. Shoving non-nut hands would then make it profitable for V to call all plain nuts, and H would lose value.

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05-19-2024 , 05:23 PM

OvertlySexual

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 2,128

Quote:

Originally Posted by pokerman2718

In this spot, the solver only raises when holding the nut straight. It has no bluffs to balance it's value.

If I am not mistaken, I see KK raised all in at a small percentage.

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