Villain (460) - fairly competent. Has called a few of my pfrs and generally folded to c-bets. May be getting a little frustrated with me since much of my stack I have won without showdown.

Hero (1400) - I have been selectively aggressive, c-betting 75% of flops for about 2/3 pot and fired some 2nd barrels. Have only showed down a few hands. Recently only questionable play was a thin river value bet with top pr A9o in a three way pot. (Loser called with A3).


Pre:- villain limps from MP. 2 other limpers. SB completes. Hero in BB raises to 35 with AKs. Villain asks: why did you bet so much? and calls. I respond "because I have a good hand" Rest fold

Flop (80) A98r. I lead 60 and pray villain has an ace. Villain calls.

Turn (200) 7 giving 2 clubs. Hero leads for 120. Villain shoves all in. Hero?

this is pretty gross, but im folding.

When villian calls the flop, and jams the turn like this his range is 2pair+ a huge % of the time imho.

Fold and feel really good about it. There are 16 combos of TJ that play it exactly like that. He could have A7ss,78ss,79ss. It's be really difficult to put AQ in his range here, and def not AJ. If he's probably got a pair+fd ect.

Yeah villain is weak with his speech. His l/c range consist of Axs and the horror hand J10. I'm not folding AK here, if villain had the straight I don't thing he would just shove. So it leans towards a weak ace with a club draw or 2pair.

I'm not folding.

EZ fold. He has aces up or suited connectors or semi connectors that either hit 2 pair or a str8. That 7 is a bad card and not a blank. This is exactly the type of hand he was hoping for when he asked you (and you told him) how strong your hand was.

if his range includes 56ss + and 68ss+ pre flop, and suited aces you are way behind now because you lose to alot of that range.

A call wouldnt be horrible because he could be on a club draw with Ac or if he has 2 pair you have a redraw for a better 2 pair, but I think fold is best play.

How can this be an easy fold by any means? He's calling on the flop with any piece if we have been cbetting at a 75% frequency, and the turn brings in the potential of about 5billion semi-bluffing hands. A10-AK, any pair with clubs.. and if he's getting frustrated, you can add in a bunch of pair+straight draw hands. Of course, he has a lot of better hands, but it's by no means a clear-cut fold. I'm undecided.

being oop in big pots isnt very good as you can see. you built the pot just so you could be in this position. now you are in trouble.

most times fold here.

AJ-AK will play this way. First of all he prob would not limp in the first place,
but he will never c/shove those on the turn. He might c/shove AT though
that be a very bad play imo.
There are not many pairs with clubs in his range, cause he will only call
pre with suited connectors, so on this board most of the suited
connectors will either have made two pair, or have an addiotonal straight
draw.
And you must consider that he were arent much ahead of a pair +fd,
but we are drawing dead, to JT, all sets, and are in pretty bad
shape vs two pairs.
So turn is a clear fold.

I think this is not a snap-fold by far, and merits thought, but i think i find a fold here. Your reasoning is pretty ******ed. His l/c range has alot more SC's than A-x (with ace of clubs) and shoving with JT is by no means a strange line, as villain can expect to get value from AK etc.

I this its a tough fold, but one you have to make considering you do quite poorly vs villains whole range here (including both value range, which crushes us, and his semi-bluff range, which is in fair shape).

I called thinking I have to be good 1/3 times. It really felt to me like he had a dominated ace or something like AT or A6 with a straight draw. He said "If you call you're good. River bricked and I shipped the pot.

Sick

Call
Your play so far is all god. I don't advise for a fold with your monster TPTK. Most of the times you will win this confrontation. Some of the times you may lose but still over the long run and over the not so long run, in deed, like during one session you will show profit. I suspect Villain 's turn bet represents a protection bet against a possible club flush draw. Go ahead and call and expect to win. If you give up top-pair-nut-kicker in this spot what hands are you gonna be playing? By the showdown AK will develop a TPTK 45.7% and two pair 22.4%. You have to call $250 to win about $1,000. You cannot fold those odds plus the fact you've got a big hand. Don't fold. Go ahead and call.

Che,

He had the club draw, just like I suspected. He wanted to gamble.

I like the play, its hard to fold giving board texture. Nice call, good thing you dodged the cards he needed.

How is this different from how the fish think, when we berate them for not being able to fold something as "weak" as TPTK, relatively deep?

We put him on a hand we can beat. Ignoring the fact that most villains play very straightforward on the turn. I doubt a weaker Ace is doing this; they always put you on AK and just call down with a weaker Ace, or maybe throw out a minraise on the flop. A turn shove is not usually a 'protection' raise.

Also, sometimes his question means nothing more than, "Why did you bet so much?"

Finally, unless my math is failing, you have to call 250 to win about 750, which is a pretty significant difference, IMO.

This is not a super-duper easy snap fold, given OP's reads, but I think I look for a better spot.

Because we our great analyzers of the game, we our not fish.

if the player has plenty of speed to his play on this street you call here and hope for the best. if he doesnt it is a clear fold, which is most of the time against the field.

Does everyone always like betting the turn here?

with the villians chip count i would only bet all in on the turn here or check. too many draws to let him get me and either bluff me or make me pay it off.

As played EZ call. Given the math and his probable range calling is profitable, even if you are behind a lot of the time.

I also think Ray Zee gave some good points. Try to not put yourself in these spots.

Usually no. Against this particular opponent it isn't that bad. He is frustrated and has a good stack size to shove over top, trying to force results with a mediocre hand. But if you're going to bet into the rhino you need the balls to call. Otherwise check. This decision should be planned before you act.