Thanks everyone for your feedback. I'll post my reply in the following format:
A) what I actually did
B) my rationale for my decision, then what actually ensued from that hand
C) my analysis of my decision in hindsight
---------------
A) I pushed all-in on the flop.
B) Out of five players (including myself), I was fairly confident that I had the best hand at this point (or rephrased, I believed that in the long run, my hand would win the largest percentage of the time). If someone is on a flush draw, especially if they had K
or Q
, then even a pot-sized bet gives them the correct odds to call (they need 1.9:1, if my understanding is correct). Given that these tables are very often on the loose side, I felt an overbet would make the cost "wrong" for my opponents. I didn't see the point in overbetting without ALSO being prepared to go broke. So all-in was my decision.
Villain (one seat to my left) thought for about 90 seconds, then decided to go all-in. Everyone else folded. He flipped over K
K
Turn = 5
River = 8
He outdraws me on the turn with nut flush vs my set. Sigh.
C) I could have made an "info" bet on the flop of, say, 1/2 to 2/3 pot (says for example, $60). If Villain calls, then it's a $220 pot going into the turn. The 5
would "scare" me, then if Villain showed strength, I'd be hard pressed to call any significant bet (unless his turn bet gives me correct odds to call and see the river, I'd need ~5:1 odds, including implied odds to even consider that). If he pushes all-in against my $60 bet, then I have to weight my pot odds to call plus whether or not he has a flush, two pair or bigger set (most likely a made flush). But at least had I decided to fold, then I'm down $80 instead of the $360 I lost. Still disappointing because, in hindsight, my read of the situation was correct, I was simply outdrawn.
Again, I welcome positive, constructive feedback. Thanks very much for your time.