SB with two black aces in a typical 1/2 NL limpfest.

Four or five limpers, I make it $25 to go.

BB in the process of tossing in cards flips up Ace of hearts.

Two callers, resulting in a pot heading into the flop of around $80-$85.

Flop Q47, all diamonds. Obviously, I don't like this, as my aces are black, the Ah is in the muck, and the Ad is still out there somewhere.

First to act, I overbet the pot to $100. First enemy instacalls, second instafolds.

I now think I have a good idea where the Ad is. I doubt that he calls that flop bet with anything less than a draw to the nuts. I think he would have raised with a flopped flush that's not the nuts. I think he could be calling with a set or two pairs, though my gut tells me he's holding the Ad -- either with another diamond or some offsuit card that might have paired the flop.

And I'm pretty sure my pair of aces ain't improving.

So, pot of around $280, villain has around $300 left behind, I have him covered with around $400. Turn is an offsuit rag.

What's my line from here?

I really think 2 pair on that board is unlikely Q7, 47 or Q4.

With you over betting the pot and villain snapping my guess is that he has the Ad.

I'm not sure I like the flop over bet tbh. Why not bet 55 for value? As played you are bloating the pot and it is possible you could be up against a set. If a D comes on the turn you can get away relatively cheaply knowing your beat.

I think a set or a flopped flush would raise your flop bet, because there is a villain to act after him. I think a villain would have raised preflop with AdQx in position.

When villain insta calls I think this is the NFD often.

So on the turn the pot would be 85+55+55=195 leaving the effective stack against villain 345.

I'd have to fire again when the offsuit rag appears. 160 on the turn would make the pot 355 giving odds of 2.2 to 1. Villain needs 4 to 1 with just the Ad to make this call correct.

Should villain call, I'd check call any non diamond river bet/shove as a bluff catcher with only 185 of the effective stack remaining.

The other way that this hand could be played would be to check the flop and if its checked around bet turn hard and b/f a non diamond on the river.

Just my thoughts.

If you're so sure he has the Ad you should shove the turn.

bet turn not close, I am not sure what the exact stack sizes are your post is a little confusing, if you have around pot sized bet left just push the turn.

+1. The insta call is usually A and I'd expect a flopped flush to do a little more hollywooding. Though it's possible he outflopped you, the more likely case is you're ahead so bet your damn hand.

villain has about a PSB left just a little more actually and the snap call on the flop with another player to act behind is probably just the A of diamonds. Put him to the test and put him in. He paid big on the flop see if he is willing to continue on. He could of AdQx and snap call.

if you are sure he holds Ad, you have to shove turn. why overbet flop and then check turn unless you think you're beat?

if you check turn you actually make his call on the flop correct instead of a mistake, here's why:

he is calling $100 to win a pot of $185, so he gets 1.85:1 on his money. if he gets to see 2 cards, then he is a 1.9:1 dog to make his flush by the river. if he has any implied odds at all on the river, he actually turns a profit. if not, he barely loses any money in the long run.

if you shove turn, he gets roughly 2:1 to call your bet, but he is a 4:1 dog to hit his flush. his call would be horrible and you either win the pot right there or you get him to put in a ton of money drawing very thin. it's win/win for you.

I'm guessing all of this is assuming we "know" villain is on an A high flush draw.

So basically, everyone here is going broke for 212 BB with an overpair?

What I mean is that I agree that if we let villain see river for a fairly good price with a flush draw then he's making at worse a minor mistake (or perhaps even a minor winning play) in the long run. But if villain has outflopped us (a set or flush which ain't going anywhere) then we are making a massive error in the long run. Isn't some sorta intermediate line necessary here?

GAAona3toaflushboardain'tabighand,sowhyarewemaking amassivepotG

I'm not sure I like the overbet on the flop. Obviously, you want them to go away, a 1/2 or 2/3 the pot will suffice just as much as overbetting the pot on a board like this. Its good for deception purposes in later hands when you flop a frush and still want action too..

as played, push the turn..

Ok, first of all don´t make your range AA or KK on the flop by betting $100. Your bet makes it sure that you are never getting played back at with worse, if villian is a super fish he will call you with QXd but I doubt it. A bet of 40 gives you a lot more options on the flop.

2nd your raise of $25 pre puts you in a spot where you are getting called by pocket pairs and possibly AK or AQs.

Check the turn and hope it gets checked down other than a monotone board its a dry flop he either has you or he doesn´t. Your post is in regard of fear to one card in the deck, one card that would also have to pay $25 preflop and $100 on the flop to get to this point.

You have to adjust the "holy S--T!" factor downward because we made it $25 to go preflop, whereas normally when you make it $12 you'd be reluctant to stick in a total of 212bb's.
In a more standard raised pot, you should be sometimes willing to go to the felt with one awesome pair for 100bbs.
Hero's read of how trappy, how loose, how deep-thinking villain is can and should influence his move on the turn.

We might argue about the flop overbet, but must agree that it sets up a natural turn shove. If your plan is to overbet then shut down when someone actually calls, you're doing it wrong.
Making a smaller bet (say $50) grabs more value from weaker hands, but makes it a three-street game where inducing bluffs on blanks and check/folding 4th flush cards on the river are part of the strategy.

Very little history with villain. Had never played with him before, he was at my table long enough to win a couple of good sized pots by limp/call/chasing/hitting a couple of flushes and Q8-type two pairs. As far as I could recall, he never raised preflop nor played back at an aggressor. Typical loose-passive bingo-playing fish.

The overbet on the flop was designed to chase away any and all draws. I admit the instant flat-call stopped me in my tracks, I expected folds all around with the slight chance that a flopped flush would show itself with a raise.

My thought process on the turn included the certainty that he wasn't going to be pushed off a nut-flush draw with a bulldozer. So I just decided it was best to go into wait-and-see mode.

you are basically just losing out on value big time here just to reduce variance with your line here. you have built such a huge pot with your bet sizing (which is good in this case I believe) you need to continue on the turn here. The only time your line would be correct is if you feel villain is always going to spew off on the river whenever he misses but even then you are just giving a free card too often most likely.

i really think you spazzed out in this hand and i hate the way you played it. but as played gotta ship turn with 1psb back he is never folding Adqx

Big hand = big pot; Small hand = small pot
We do NOT have a big hand or a draw to one

If villain is a passive fish how do we know that he hasn't already hit a flush? Hero bet big. Villain could be sitting there with 68 and either thinking that hero will do the betting for him or maybe he is afraid hero has AK. Passive fish don't think in terms like betting to charge a draw when you have a made hand, so we can't project our logic to narrow their hand ranges based on how we might play it.

I agree with the response about betting smaller on the flop or even checking the flop. You could be drawing to runners with an out already mucked. There will be much better spots to build a big pot and you only have $25 invested at this point in a multi-way pot.

This. This hand is very specific to your read at the table, which is something we on a forum can't help you much with. You make a decision as to whether he has a lone flush draw, or a made flush, and shove or check accordingly. If your read was that he has the Ad, then shove.

this advice is a little misguided in that on the turn the SPR is in the 1-2 range so we are pretty much committed once OP gets to the turn with the original line. While his hand his not a big hand in a larger sense when you take into account all the factors in the hand then he does have a big hand for the situation.

I am curious why you would assign such a strong range for villain when his line is passive and consistent with his general style of play and though he could be just calling with a better hand on the flop his range IS skewed towards Qx with a diamond and AdX hands. Even passive players put in a raise on the flop when the pot is already huge and they have a set/small flush.

looks like you are trying to lose the minimum here and not extract the most value.

If he won't be pushed of the NFD, and you're sure he has the NFD, why not make him overpay the NFD?

"I won't bet, he won't fold anyway"="I want to give villain a free card to beat me." If he really won't fold the NFD, you're not getting anything out of him OTR if it doesn't come, so turn is your chance to get his money and allow him to make another big mistake.

Mind you, this is predicated on your read, but AdQx is quite possible here. In that case, you're even widening his chance of drawing out on you and wanting to give him a free card to do so.

IMO, the snap call on the flop is the A. We have a PSB left, so this is an easy shove, especially if we feel the villain won't fold the NFD. Gobbledygeek, if we were a lot deeper, then this is a good example of a 'small hand/small pot' situation. We've gone past the point of commitment - folding after putting in 1/3 our stack is a mistake. So, we get the money in and live with the consequences.

HOWEVER, as a person who has felt the cruel hand of variance slap him upside the head so often recently that tournaments are starting to look more appealing, overall bankroll issues must be addressed. If you are on a fun time, looking to gamboool it up, and the money doesn't matter it's an easy shove. But if you are a BR nit, are on a short roll, or are variance-phobic, I can see a check behind. This is especially true if you feel the villain won't jam the turn if you check. If a non-diamond falls on the river, you can bet or c/c as you see fit. The tighter the player, the more I like a river bet versus a check. The looser the player, a c/c is a better line. Sure, you may get a check behind on the river and lose EV, but for the BR nit, the alternative could prove much more costly. If the river is a diamond, we can confidently c/f.

At the end of the day, +EV decisions make the money. So, unless you are destitute and/or cannot stand a 200bb swing, move ARRRRRRRRRR EEEEEEEEN on the turn.

OP asked what's my move from here. As played if the $100 flop bet wasn't a probe bet I think it's a clear shove.

There are a couple of factors to consider IMO.
A. Did the villain see the ace flip over?
B. What is hero's image? We know you started the hand 250 plus bbs deep so what does villain think of your image. Can he put you on a bare nut draw and have red KK?

I think he shows up with KQ here maybe the nut ace with a queen enough to get it in but the player read and how he sees me would weigh heavy in my decision.

Also playing this deep I raise 78s the same as aces. 3 times the bb plus one bb per limper. I would be looking at a 55-60 pot on the flop and would have made it 40-45 on the flop.

Pot control is not just a post flop term IMO, especially this deep oop. I'm not trying to derail the thread and If I'm off base on these comments I welcome suggestions.

Best of Luck