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what are your priors here? what are your priors here?

11-26-2023 , 09:45 AM
before betting I sometimes ask myself what I will do if my bet gets raised. If the answer is 'fold' then usually I check instead of betting out.
what are your priors here? Quote
11-26-2023 , 12:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NittyOldMan1
1/3 effective stack 800

older guy who is playing loose and passive raises EP to $20, one caller, i make it $80 with KK CO, he calls, caller folds. ive never seen this guy raise a flop in 4 hours.

flop JJ2 two spades, i have a spade.

he checks. i bet $40 (a very stupid bet imo i should have checked).

he c'rs to $170.



what do you do?
Since it's extremely unlikely you have JJ, 22, or J2, I think I'd just check-back on this flop, and look to play this hand a little more defensively. As played, it's probably correct to fold.

The thing about players who play loose and passive, especially older players, is that they expect more aggro opponents to do their betting for them. Don't. Instead, force them to bet their hand by checking to them or checking back. Sometimes they'll size up and put us to a tough decision, but more often, they'll size down, desperate to get value after folding so many hands, and we can continue.

Because you have KK, it's more likely V has AA, and it makes sense he'd x/r in this spot, on a two-tone board. This type of opponent seems to live in perpetual fear of having AA cracked by obvious draws. They love to x/r these types of boards when a more aggro opponent c-bets. A big x/r is almost certainly thick value.

When the flop checks through, and V bets turn small on a brick, we can call. If V checks again on turn, we can make a delayed c-bet, often very wide, and on almost any card that isn't likely to improve V's hand.

It sucks to have to play a big hand defensively, but we have to have the discipline to not pay off the nits and fish.
what are your priors here? Quote
11-26-2023 , 12:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jcorb
before betting I sometimes ask myself what I will do if my bet gets raised. If the answer is 'fold' then usually I check instead of betting out.
So you never, like, block-bet the river to eke out thin value with TPWK?

Sometimes, having a plan to fold without hesitation when one gets raised is enough to give one the confidence to bet more often, and thus win more.
what are your priors here? Quote
11-26-2023 , 12:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NittyOldMan1
results were that I folded and he showed TT because he thought i had AK. later he raised my flop cbet on an ace high board with A5.

so my read about him being entirely passive was off. he is entirely passive with draws but overly aggressive with showdownable, WA/WB type hands. this seems like a strange strategy to me, but to each his own i guess. unfortunately i hadnt played enough hours with this guy to develop this sort of read.

i also later figured out that once he CR'd here, barring an ace or spade on the turn he was most likely betting huge on the turn with his TT, so im not sure i regret my fold that much in hindsight because there was no way i could call a huge turn bet. i suppose self-criticism due to inability to have telepathy is in itself a leak, because i made a tilty, stupid bluff vs. a different player a few hands later.
So...he's terrible.

His logic makes no sense. If he was convinced you were just bluffing with AK, why not flat call your bet, and let you continue barreling, rather than x/r and scare you away? What would he have done if you 3B over his x/r? Is he jamming TT?

Even if you knew how this guy played, I think I still like the fold on the flop. Logically, if he's passive with his draws, he's not x/r'ing flop with spades, and he's probably not raising with 2x. I wouldn't have thought he'd be raising EP with a lot of Jx combos, but if he is, then there's really not a lot KK can beat when he x/r's this flop.

We don't want to get into the habit of check-calling or check-folding every time this V raises. A guy that gets overly aggro with WA/WB hands is probably going to be just as aggro with his thick value hands. We need to be opportunistic with V's like this, and wait for the right opportunity to stack them. It's okay to over-fold while waiting for our spot.

It's unlikely we're going to be in a lot of spots like this - an EP open-3B-call from V, followed by a two-tone and paired flop. It's okay to take a more defensive, lower EV line or make the occasional bad fold when we can print against this V in most other spots.
what are your priors here? Quote
11-26-2023 , 01:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NittyOldMan1
1/3 effective stack 800

older guy who is playing loose and passive raises EP to $20, one caller, i make it $80 with KK CO, he calls, caller folds. ive never seen this guy raise a flop in 4 hours.

flop JJ2 two spades, i have a spade.

he checks. i bet $40 (a very stupid bet imo i should have checked).

he c'rs to $170.

what do you do?
I haven't seen the other answers, but by my math, the pot is 180 and your bet size is 22% of the pot. It's too small IMO and it may have induced a bluff or an overplay from villain. Call and reevaluate.

If your read is correct and villain is only betting aggressively with value, you can fold turn most times and a triple barrel river bet 100% of the time.
what are your priors here? Quote
11-26-2023 , 01:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
One of the reasons I'm uncomfortable playing deep is that it is difficult to 3bet to a sizing where we can comfortably stack off postflop (and yet we'll often be setting up SPRs where it will be difficult not too).

GcluelessNLnoobG
SPR is 4.4. What does Miller say you do with an SPR of 4? (not that it necessarily applies here, but SPR is your thing!)
what are your priors here? Quote
11-27-2023 , 12:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OvertlySexual
SPR is 4.4. What does Miller say you do with an SPR of 4? (not that it necessarily applies here, but SPR is your thing!)
I think this is a problematic spot in a 3bet pot because (a) we offered non-horrendous ~14:1 IO preflop (not great, but not terrible either), (b) possibly somewhat tabled our hand (admittedly depends on how much we've been 3betting) and (c) created an SPR of ~4 where it will be trivial for our opponent to force us to play for our stack postflop. Personally, I find these spots quite difficult and attempt to avoid them (mostly by playing shorter and/or possibly even tricky flatting preflop).

GcluelessdifficultspotnoobG
what are your priors here? Quote
11-28-2023 , 12:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kashabrown
I agree. I lurk and don't post much. I played your style of poker for a few years when I was regging at the borgata. I still am tight, but take out the "spr" and some of the math and exploit your opponents more.

My win rate has doubled since I've introduced more subtle aggression into my game. It's such a small change, my weekly private game, where we've been playing together for several years, nobody has adjusted whatsoever to the changes in my game. In the cardroom at $2/$5, crushing.

I like your posts. Just friendly advice from a long time winning player.
Can you explain what you mean by take out the spr and some of the math and exploit your opponents more? Or an example? Thanks
what are your priors here? Quote

      
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