1/2 NL ES: $215

I ran into a situation the other night, where I believed that I was in the perfect position to attempt to take down the pot [mult-way] on the flop because:

1. I had 15 outs if I got called.
2. 4 opponents paid $5 to see the flop
3. 3rd opponent bet $12 into a $22 pot [raked] on the flop & got 1 caller b4 me. I am on the Button.
4. I am a TAG player who has been running cold & not seeing many flops.
5. 20 minutes earlier I had bluffed the loosest player on the table off a hand on the flop with a c/r holding nothing but 44, after he made a 1/2 pot size bet. So I do get respect when I make a substantial bet.

I hold T8 & called PF

Flop: A97

After the $12 bet & 1 caller, there is $44 [raked] in the pot. Since there will be $56 in the pot after I called, I raised to $55 in an attempt to take it down with a 15 out backup draw if someone calls.

Everyone folds to the last player who goes all in for $198 total. Now there's $297 in the pot & I have to call $143, giving me 2.07:1 pot odds. I snap call, without doing the math, guessing it's close. It is. He flopped a set of 7s.

So, I have 14 outs & 40.1% equity & my $143 I called is 32.5% of the pot. An overlay?

Well, we have to remember I tried to buy the pot with a $55.00 bet vs. 4 opponents with nothing but a draw. What I thought before raising, was that if I just call the $12.00 flop bet, odds are I won't be able to afford to pay the turn bet if I miss my draw.

I don't have but an 8% overlay on my call, however, if he had not had a set & someone called with Ax or two pair, they may have checked to me on the turn if they didn't improve & I'd have been able to see the turn/river card for $55.00.

If I had only got 1 caller, my $55 would have been 37.2% of the pot, still giving me an overlay, if I got to see 2 streets for free.

My flop play was instinctive. I didn't want to spend a lot of time mulling over the bet out of concern that it would make me appear to be making a move. I knew the stack sizes & player's tendencies. 1 of the other 2 players who checked, would not have checked [being 1st to act] if he had flopped something good on that wet board, so I only had to have a concern about 1 player slow playing which I believed to be doubtful. I spent my normal 10-15 seconds.

Thoughts?

Seems pretty fine/standard. Sets were at the top of his range, and are never folding on this board. If he had A5 or A10, he probably mucks.

That said, some 15 outers are better than others. Couple things to consider:

-Are your flush outs likely to be dirty? If players at your table like to limp with Kx/Qx/Jx suited, then it's entirely possible you'll be drawing to 6 outs instead of 15. A hefty raise will get some players to fold those Qx and Jx draws. That's a big equity win.

-How does your opponent treat scare cards? Is he going to bet/call when the straight or flush card comes? If he's willing to fold top pair on a scary board, you should lean toward raising now. If he can't fold TPTK or two pair, you should lean toward calling.

-What's his normal betting line on the turn with vulnerable top pair-type hands? Is he going to charge the draws, or is he going to get timid?

-Are there other players at the table who are likely to overcall with middle pair/bottom pair/gutshot draws if you just call? If so, you should lean toward calling.

15-outers have plenty of pot equity (assuming all the outs are good). You can get aggressive with them early, for fold equity, or you can play them quiet on the flop, to set up a larger pot later. The choice mostly comes back to what kind of opponents you're dealing with.

1. I would just like to stress that you MAY have just pushed a weak player off of a weak hand. this one hand that you check raised is not going to define your image as only having the nuts. especially since it did not showdown.

2. Good job including their bets into the size of the pot, but did you include your call into the pot before you considered your raise? $44 pot + your $12 call is $56. If you raise to $55, $12 of that goes into the $56 pot and now it is $42 to your opponent. Forget that he has a set, if your goal is to take it down here think about giving your opponent worse odds to call if he does have a hand that he can get away from.

I would raise more. If you bet pot, if Im following correctly, it should be 12x3=36 + 12 lead = 48 + 20 in the middle = 68? That would be a pot bet in a pot limit game. Sometimes I use that as a base to work off of when sizing big raises. $70 seems like pretty good sizing to me and that might be enough to fold out an A, definitely folding out middle pairs and other hands that might have you beat. Edit: I am willing to GII on this flop so I barely care about my stack size that I am leaving myself UNLESS I think my opponent will make his decision based on what I leave myself behind. This is a bit too metagame for lowerlimits
As far as your outs, a set is pretty much the worse thing you can be up against with a combo draw like you have. Board texture is okay for the move you are making. When you are up against a set, though, the board will pair enough times that it reduces your odds of winning. I hope one of the mathematicians checks me on this one. Up against TPTK or something, your 14 or 15 outs will have the correct 48-56% chance of winning, but once you are up against a set you drop to 40 or below because of the times that he will boat up and lock it in.

When you go home and check your outs make sure to use an app like Poker Equity Calculator and use your opponents whole range. As played Im sure you should be winning this pot more often than not against the range that can bet $12 on that flop.

Couple of good responses already ...

Were you committed to this holding? If so, then you made the right move to raise it up here in insure that you 'get paid' for your draw. Not knowing how your opponents are going to react to the Turn if it is scary can 'force' you to get your implied odds going in the pot before the Turn card comes out. Of course you can also take the pot down (with T high), which really helps in the long run to make up for the times you miss.

You are worried about being able to call a Turn bet if you miss .. or should you be? Rule of 2 shows less than 30% (15 outs x 2) to hit the River if you miss the Turn. So you can call almost an 80% PSB on Turn and still be close on your EV ... and that's if you are HU, if still multi-way then you are right in calling even more often.

The biggest question when dealing with pots like this is 'Am I going to get paid off?' and if not how do I get money in the pot before I hit. With the stack sizes generally being played at 1-2 it's really not that hard to get stacks into the middle so raising this Flop is good way to make sure you gii sooner than later ... if you are committed to the pot and have the right opponents to give you a few folds in the mix.

You could be crushed right here, eh? Especially multi-way ... but this hand can go either way at this point and you really wont be 'wrong'.

It was a very good point to pay attention to your raise sizes. One thing I used to do to force myself into making a better raise size is to announce 'raise' and then put the call out there before cutting out the raise. IMO it creates more folds and puts you in a better spot for max value if your opponents choose to continue. GL

I'm glad you brought these points up. These are all excellent textbook points to be considered in situations like this & I believe I failed to follow all of them. Specifically, the dirty flush draw outs. Although I was certain V1 [who checked on flop] would not do so with a made hand, I had no way of knowing if he was holding a better flush draw. His style of play reminded me of Bob Ciaffone's style of play in limit hold em. Tight opening hand requirements, followed up with aggressive post flop play. So I didn't see him calling without the K high flush draw, if any draw at all.

I thought the player who bet the flop probably had a weak ace and the one who called [with the set] had a draw.

I felt that raising to $55, requiring those who already put in $12 to call another $43 [~3.6x $12] was sufficient to get weak hands to fold.

I tried to size my bet as if I had A9/A7 and was trying to price out the 2 who had paid $12 already [and may be on a draw] and assumed the other 2 who checked would fold. All these assumptions are based on 2+ hrs of play, which isn't enough to be spot on -another reason I doubted my decision in hindsight.

I'm thinking if the V with the set had K9 instead of 77, the pot would have been mine. However, if it were K7 I was probably getting called, leaving me with 6 outs & runner 2pair.

I did not play the hand on the flop as if I was competing for it against the nut flush draw.

Thanks for the input. I agree the bet should have been closer to your suggestion. I was down to 40% equity against the set. According to my software, I have 48.2% equity against 2 pair if V doesn't hold a diamond.
If he held AQo [no diamond] I have 56.8% equity.

As far as getting people at this table to fold - notice how the guy with the set didn't raise on this wet flop?! A lot of weak play was going on, other than the loose guy, who didn't take long to end up on life support & then lights out.

I wasn't as committed to my hand as I was to trying to win the pot on the flop. I shoulda' bet more.

I don't see how this math adds up. If there is $100 in the pot, V bets 80% [$80] my call is $80/$180 = 44.4% of what I can win with a 30% chance of drawing out. Also, if I have 30% equity & the total pot [after I call] is $260, 30% of that is $78.00. I would need some decent implied odds to warrant drawing.

Although I did take into consideration my $12 call with the raise [as stated previously, it's agreed it wasn't enough] I like that idea of cutting out the raise.

Trying to buy $44 pot with $55 bet with 15 outer is a bad idea. You try to buy pots when you have vulnerable made hands like overpair or nut draws with less outs like Kxdd here. If I bet 55 here, I bet with the intention of building the pot and GII when I get there. 5 way, someone having a set and coming over on top should be pretty standard too and nothing ordinary. Only sets or pair with nut flush draw will call your 55. If you want two pair and Axdd call your flop raise, raise smaller, like to 24-30..
Now, GII.

Be careful... I think it's so funny when other players say that at the table but I mean it here. Combo draws rely on fold equity to be profitable. Pot odds is just a break even number. If we are getting 3 to 1 with a 25% chance of winning then we are just breaking even after 100 hands. A hand with 50% to win is going to show a profit after 100 hands if we can get our opponent to fold any percentage of the time. Bring it down to 40% and we need something like 10% or more fold equity (for the sake of easy math).

Your percentage to win and not the strength of your draw should determine how much money is going into the pot. Since we win almost half the time with combo draws we don't care if our whole stack goes in because we will get it back half the time. If "You try to buy pots when you have vulnerable made hands like overpair or nut draws with less outs like Kxdd here" you are falling into a sticky trap of reverse implied odds. If you "bet 55 here, .... with the intention of building the pot and GII when I get there." you are going to be called by better flush draws and the other straight draws. If you wait till you get there to GII the weak Aces and maybe even the sets can find a fold while the other draws will pick you off. Putting all your money in the middle with a gutshot Straight Flush Draw (1 outer) or Quad draw (1 outer) because its a nut draw is the extreme example but illustrates why outs and fold equity determines our action.

If the bold part of your statement is true, then why is trying to buy the pot with ten high & a 15 out backup if called, a bad idea? It's not like I'm going to run into either a set or a pair with the nut flush draw 50% of the time, is it?

basically reverse everything in this post.

buy the pots that you can't win at showdown when unimproved and when you basically have nothing. build pots with the hands that are strong and can become stronger.

why on earth would you want bigger FDs to call for correct odds?

the point of bombing the flop is so that bigger FDs don't call. especially if it ends up MW past the flop. the last thing we want is a caller with a bigger FD and a caller with a made hand like 2P or a set. that kills our equity and makes our hand virtually impossible to win.

You're exactly right.

It is amazing the number of threads here where someone has a mid-strength hand and is desperate not to get value from worse hands.

Commonsense would seem to dictate having a polarized betting range; with hands that are either strong, draws to strong hands, or are just outright bluffs.

Your call goes into the pot.

If someone bets pot you need 33.3% equity to call.

If someone bets .8 pot you need .8 / 2.6 or 30.8% equity to call.

Even using your own example you're calling 80 and 30% of 260 is 78 so the call has an EV of minus two dollars. You don't need to get much on the next street if you hit.

Wonder if some posters over here are book/forum warriors or real llsnl players. Yes right, the winning llsnl players are too busy winning $$$ to be posting here. HA HA........
I get giggles when people are debating about between 5-10 % +/- equity as if they can do math that correctly/quickly on table or if they have bankroll/tilt control to be able to take these small edge spots. These small edge spots become necessary when you go medium to higher stakes where every one is a pretty good player. Analyzing the math is a good thing but it should give you general idea not the SOLVE IT ALL thing.

Don't tell me you tilted after the hand and blew anther 2 buyins

Gii nothing wrong here

Lot of these math based approaches taking small edges came from online poker world. For Someone multi-tabling 10-12 tables, with faster hands than live, it didn't take too long to play a thousand hand. As a result, the variances averaged out pretty quickly and true equities of hands were quickly realized. It would take quite some time to play thousand hands live. In slow live game, with far smaller bankroll, one should rather avoid getting stacks in as a small favorite when they have very little invested in the pot.
A simple example. If someone offered me as a 55/45 favorite to GII 400BB, theoretically I should take it. But will I take it ? No. I will have far more favorable spots than that at llsnl.

Well put
But still put put

Just wanted to point out that in our worst case scenario of a villain with nut flush draw and a pair, we have 6 straight outs and 6 pair outs for a total of 12, which is still 40%ish on the flop.

You played the hand fine. It's also worth noting that a player that calls in late position and then back-raises you will typically have a nutted hand, as is evidenced by our villain showing a set.

Three words: bank roll management.

If you can't get it in as 55/45 favorite, you shouldn't be playing the game.