1/2 NL ES: $215
I ran into a situation the other night, where I believed that I was in the perfect position to attempt to take down the pot [mult-way] on the flop because:
1. I had 15 outs if I got called.
2. 4 opponents paid $5 to see the flop
3. 3rd opponent bet $12 into a $22 pot [raked] on the flop & got 1 caller b4 me. I am on the Button.
4. I am a TAG player who has been running cold & not seeing many flops.
5. 20 minutes earlier I had bluffed the loosest player on the table off a hand on the flop with a c/r holding nothing but 44, after he made a 1/2 pot size bet. So I do get respect when I make a substantial bet.
I hold T
8
& called PF
Flop: A
9
7
After the $12 bet & 1 caller, there is $44 [raked] in the pot. Since there will be $56 in the pot after I called, I raised to $55 in an attempt to take it down with a 15 out backup draw if someone calls.
Everyone folds to the last player who goes all in for $198 total. Now there's $297 in the pot & I have to call $143, giving me 2.07:1 pot odds. I snap call, without doing the math, guessing it's close. It is. He flopped a set of 7s.
So, I have 14 outs & 40.1% equity & my $143 I called is 32.5% of the pot. An overlay?
Well, we have to remember I tried to buy the pot with a $55.00 bet vs. 4 opponents with nothing but a draw. What I thought before raising, was that if I just call the $12.00 flop bet, odds are I won't be able to afford to pay the turn bet if I miss my draw.
I don't have but an 8% overlay on my call, however, if he had not had a set & someone called with Ax or two pair, they may have checked to me on the turn if they didn't improve & I'd have been able to see the turn/river card for $55.00.
If I had only got 1 caller, my $55 would have been 37.2% of the pot, still giving me an overlay, if I got to see 2 streets for free.
My flop play was instinctive. I didn't want to spend a lot of time mulling over the bet out of concern that it would make me appear to be making a move. I knew the stack sizes & player's tendencies. 1 of the other 2 players who checked, would not have checked [being 1st to act] if he had flopped something good on that wet board, so I only had to have a concern about 1 player slow playing which I believed to be doubtful. I spent my normal 10-15 seconds.
Thoughts?