This hand comes from a 1/2 NL game. Villain is a very experienced older gentleman. When I arrived at the table about an hour earlier, Villain had already amassed over $600. From observation, he played a true TAG style. Villain generally opened pots for a raise regardless of position, and he often 3-bet limpers in position pre-flop. Post flop, he c-bet most flops against most opponents, and he raised more often post-flop than a typical 1/2 player when someone c-bet him.

There was only one confrontation of note involving Hero. Villain raised in the HJ, and I called out of the SB. I had played very few pots to this point (because largely card-dead), and I had not called any pre-flop raises yet. Villain c-bet the flop with air and checked the hand down to the river when I floated OOP with a flush draw. Villain showed AQ and said after the hand that, had I led the river, he would have called "reluctantly" with only A-high.

On the hand in question, I had about $220 behind, and there was a straddle. All folded to the Villain in the CO, and somewhat out of character, he limped in for $4. It folded to me, and I raised to $20 OTB with Q J. The straddler called, and so did the Villain.

Pot @ $60. Flop: 6 8 9

The straddler checked, and then Villain made a $60 donk bet to me.

What hand ranges do you think Villain has here? How much fold equity do you think I have if I push for $200 with two overcards, a flush draw, and a gutshot? Do you think my heart draw is live more often than not? How often are my overcards of any value?

I know that's a lot of questions, but those are the ones that I tried to evaluate in my head at the time against this kind of Villain. I'll withhold my own answers to those questions to see what other might think, but I would appreciate any comments.

I think your heart draw is almost always live. This player would likely c/r a NFD with overs. Also unlikely to l/c AhXh. I put his range pretty solidly in value with fear of the flop getting checked through and giving a FD a free card. 2p+, or PP with SD. Say 55-TT and TJ. You are somewhat ahead of this range and should have good FE, so I prob shove here.

Easiest shove ever. You have very good equity and also some FE as he might even fold alot of his TP type hands that don't have a 7 in them.

He's not folding if you shove if he's a true TAG. I would expect almost 100% to always see 89s or a set here. He's not doing this with the nut flush draw, no one does, so we can rule that out I don't think he's betting this much with any type of draw, this is a great board to check raise draws. Tough spot OP, if were up against a set, were going to win ~33% of the time and if its 89, about 42% you have a monster but if you look at it, it just comes down to a gut shot and a flush draw (11outs can't hit the 9 if he has 89 or set). Id really like to know what he had and what you did, can't fault you for shoving.

Grunch shove.
Vs this range we are 53%

Jts/o t9s/o 99-66 98s/o 97s/o 87s/o 86 76

Throw in a few (not a lot) nfd combos and we are slightly behind.

Either way easy ship. He isn't folding

Agreed, ship it.

As many have said before, this is likely a pair + OESD or gut shot, two pair, or a set.

I shove. I doubt he folds. I expect him to show up with a hand like 77, 67, 78, 79 often here.

BTW, your range looks like big pairs and big aces. Obviously you having over cards in hearts sucks for him. He might fall out of his chair when he sees you have the gutshot also.

His bet is solid against your likely range. If you have a big pair, it's a tough call for you and he has 10-13 outs if you manage it. If you have over cards that aren't hearts, you pretty much have to fold.

I don't think this is less than two pair. I think this stove range is a little wide for a donk bet. I think it's very, very close.

But when it is so close you can't decide, I recommend sitting back in your chair and slowly pushing all of your chips across the line with one finger, whistling the "hi-ho" tune made famous by the Seven Dwarves.

sounds like he is a thinking player.
that means a portion of his range consists of some air, or some marginal hand he is turning into a bluff (small pairs), as this flop is likely to have missed you, and he could be making a play, viewing you as tight/weak? (you don't sound real active).
even if he happens to be at the top of his range (sets, 2 pairs, flopped str8s), youre not hating life.
if he had the nut flush draw, and he's aggressive, he wouldnt donk out with it, when he could check raise.
can't see folding your hand, jam it.
who cares about FE? if your draws are live (not even counting overcards), you are getting a decent overlay from the $60 in the pot when he bets.

Hand range: two pair, sets, and possibly A8 or A9 with A and some random bluffs. On such a drawy board I like some times to bluff as people will almost always fold TP or worse.

FE: not much, I think his range is polarized like I said so if he has it he calls if he is bluffing he folds. on above range you have at best 40% equity so not a terrible shove but...not a fan of the shove here. I call and reevaluate on turn and river vs. assessed range. if a 9,8,6 hit I might fold to a strong action, if a heart falls I try to extract value. and it the 10 hits I think you have a good chance of stacking him

you also have the straddler to take action after you to think about

although i do agree this opponent is capable of bluffing, i do not think he would have sized his bets this way with air. seems like he's committed very wide after a pot sized bet and only 140ish more left for hero so FE isn't that good IMO... that being said i think poker stove shows this is a shove unless his donk range is very strong and narrow and he NEVER folds here.

With villain's range on sets, 2 pairs, straight draws+flush draws, top pair+flush draws, pair+straight draws, possible overpairs (you did say his open limp was really out of character) and open ended straight draw with overs, your hand has 52% equity
against that range. Even if that's not his range and it was something like only QQ+, sets and 2 pairs you still have 41% equity and you only need 43.5% equity to break even. Add the fact that he could possibly be bet/folding naked top pairs and this looks like a shove.

I think flatting is more flexible:

Shoving will push the BB out of the pot, calling will keep him in sometimes.
Shoving folds the villains air and doesn't give him the chance to 2-barrel bluff a "scary" turn card.


If the villain really has a hand all the money is going in anyway - flatting leaves you the extra option to keep the BB's money in the pot.


If the villain checks the T, and it's a brick for you, you have the option to check behind and see the river for free. If the T & R miss you, you save yourself 140. The risk here is if his donk bet is air, and he did it with Ax. Then you wish you'd shoved the flop.


Key to your flexibility is your commitment to the pot with your hand on this board. With all of your equity, you don't care if the money goes in on the flop, or the turn, since you're committed.