Meh,
okay, I may be a little over zealous on the fist pump call if we are shoved on on this turn.
But in this spot (wet board) a lot of weaker hands will call despite the Ace scare card because when the board is wet, lots of villains will put you on a flush draw provided you don't get too crazy with the betting.
In fact, at this level, lots of players OVERBET made hands because they are trying to push out the flush draw. That is more standard (though incorrect). So, I think a 1/2-2/3 pot bet will get more calls than folds by weaker hands.
Villain is on the BTN and I could see BTN floating with wide range of overs or pair + gutshot combos.
Lastly, lets forget about the flush draw for a moment. If we just had AJo, wouldn't we bet in this spot? So balance a bit, and bet. And if we are concerned about pushing out weaker hands, then bet 1/2 pot.
I can definitely see a lot of hands calling 1/2pot since that bet is semi-weak is it not? Like a blocking bet trying to see a flush river.
And now that I think about it, I wouldn't be thrilled with a OTT raise, but at the same time, i'm not sticking my finger down my throat in disgust. I'd feel comfortable calling a OTT shove here. Otherwise, should we never bet OOP in fear of an OTT shove? That sorta thinking will turn us into a weak-tight nit.
EDIT: Opps, seems we are a little deeper than I thought. okay, OTT shove would be a sick spot
. But I don't think I would let that fear stop me from betting this turn. Lastly, in a vacuum (no reads), I would call OTT shove here. But I wouldn't fault someone for folding. Its just been my experience that many times at this level you swear a player would have to have 'blank' hand in order to shove and in reality it is oftentimes a worse hand then you thought.
Last edited by dgiharris; 10-21-2010 at 05:27 PM.