2/3 nl 500 effective stacks
V 20-30 yera old black male been sitting at table approximately 30-40 minutes sat down with ~450 ran over table with preflop aggression and cbets. occasionally hitting top pair.

hero male 30-40 Ive been playing about 5-6 hours solid poker havent shown anything tricky.
the two hands before the hand in question I 3bet V preflop raise of 7 to 24 with jj he is only caller.flop is AJ10 he checks I bet 25 he raisies to 100 i am all infor 250 on top he tanks for a minute then folds showing j10 stating i have set of aces.
I now have a stck of ~490 he covers
two hands later i am in the SB, i believe there was two limpers and he makes it 18 from the button. i have 8 10 hearts and call, no other callers.

pot~40 after rake
flop 5h 6d 8d

I check intending to call, he bets 25 i call with TP backdoor flush and straight draws.
At this point i am planning on c/raising any heart,7,8,or ten on turn. He has shown that he bets and calls fairly light with the exception of the hand above.

pot-90
Turn 9h

I check, he bets 100 what do you do now with pair,flush draw and gut shot?
I felt like overpair likely but 9 is perfect card to semi bluff.

I'd just fold pre to stay out of this kind off spot oop vs agrro villian

As played, pretty tough spot. If he is bluffing I would expect a younger villian to bet less 50-60 range. The sizing is typical of a value bet. I don't think over pairs are loving life. So if he is value betting its sets and 7x neither of which we have great equity against, but this is a decent spot to bluff. I would think the worse hand he shows up with is like QJdd. An argument can be made for both folding and calling. It's close. I probably just fold and look for a better spot.

Ok so...The pot has $190 with action to you. He just made a PSB on turn. How often is he double barreling through all this aggression you have seen? This is a really scary board for his overpair.

Please forgive me as I try to work this through. Woould appreciate a future poster to check my math

Let's assume he is at the TIP TOP of his range. TT+, AKh AKd

Hand 0: 61.168% { TT+, AdKd, AhKh }
Hand 1: 38.832% { Th8h }

If you fire a raise of say, 270, than you need to win at least ~70% of the time to be profitable. You will then, need him to fold 1/3 of the time to give yourself enough equity to make this play profitable.

I believe 2 things:

1) His range is not that tight, raising from button, and firing 2 bets when checked to (based on description), therefore making your equity even higher.

2) He will fold at least 1/3 of the time, making the raise profitable.

The question then becomes, if he shoves your raise to ~270, do you have to call?

The pot would then be $810 with action on you, and you would need to call for ~$177.

That would be 4.58 - 1 odds and a clear snap call with any hand that has at least 22% equity (which you do).

I THINK I got all the math concepts right, but again, would love another opinion.

My suggested play: Raise to 270.

Or... you can "nit" fold and pick a better spot

Tighten up pf OOP against LAGs. I think this is simply a stove question. However, your hand is pretty disguised and you only need 33 equity. If you assume all your outs are good, this is a marginal call. If you think he can show up with anything better than an over pair, this is a fold and you should just look for better spots.

preflop is a very clear fold

You gotta bet the turn in this spot imo. You got the 2nd best scare card in the deck in terms of bluffing out an overpair (7h is the best), you have a clean image, and villain has shown he knows how to make good laydowns. Also, this is the point where villain's range will be the weakest since all he did was raise preflop and cont bet the flop. If you go for a turn check/raise, not only do you have to invest more money to make this play, but now you are attacking a likely much tighter range. Villain betting that scary turn board is a pretty strong move. Given the texture of that turn board (a scary-ass board from villain's perspective if he's holding an overpair), you gotta be the one to make the first move, don't give the villain a chance to pot control check the turn with his overpairs. Bet a serious amount on the turn ($100 is what I would bet) threatening the villain with the dire prospect of having to make a hero-call down for two streets.

Going for a turn check/raise bluff is a mistake in this spot imo. You're check/raising into too strong of a range.

Given that you checked the turn, the options now for me are call or fold, and it's very close between both lines. I wouldn't even think about check/raising in this spot unless a specific read said otherwise. An in position pottish sized turn bet (remember this guy had the option of checking but didn't) on that scary board is just too strong of a move to consider bluffing against (again, only a very player specific read would make me think otherwise). So now the question is should we call or fold?

Well, for one, it looks like we have a lot of outs, but we really don't. Our two pair/trip outs are now highly suspect. Also, one of the 7s may be gone given that that's basically what villain is representing at this point, and I know it's very minor but we aren't drawing to the nut flush, and some of our flush outs pair the board, so all in all, we have to discount our outs here, and I would discount them down to 10 or 11. Let's say 10.5 outs.

Looking at our expressed odds on the turn we are getting 1.9-1 to call, when we are around 3.4-1 underdog. So the question is when we hit a 7 or a flush on the river can we get (on average) around $135 from villain. Given that our backdoor flush is hidden, I think we can. So I would make this marginal call on the turn.

That is why I love this forum. I considered c/c, c/f, c/r. Donking like never crossed my mind for some reason..

if I lead out for 100 and he raises to 250 or shoves do you call or fold?

That's actually an easy question to answer because then it's simply a straight math problem. Doing the math, you'll find that we gotta call if villain raises to $250. Factoring in implied odds, we're getting good enough odds on the turn to try to hit our flush/straight on the river.

If villain puts us all in, it's over, we gotta fold, that destroys our odds.

Don't like the pre flop call, becoz your calling oop with a hand that most times turns out to be a drawing hand, other than the few times you crush the flop. Your getting too tricky with a player who you said "bets and calls lightly". Your giving your edge away. However since you did call and asked what other players would do, I would check raise him all in, becoz his bet looks like a big fat steal to me. I don't think he would bet so much with a straight, but with a bluff, yeah he would IMO. If he had an overpair, he would'nt bet $100 n2 a $90 pot, I think he checks an overpair n2 that board with a 7 making the straight. His bet looks suspect for sure. I like to put the other man to the guess, coz he may guess wrong, but calling pre with 8/10h oop has placed you in the spot of being the guesser. Don't like to put myself n this position, but I gotta think there's a solid chance my 8's are good, and if I've guessed wrong, I got outs. If by chance he has an overpair it's a tough call for him, so you got solid FE. Gl

Fold, coz gotta put him on a 7 then.

We have a flush draw and we will mostly likely win the whole pot if we bink a 7 on the turn (Villain unlikely to have raised preflop with T7o or T7s).

Even if we put villain on precisely 77 or A7s (including the obv death hand A7) we have the odds to call the turn when you factor in implied odds.

We're a 3.58-1 underdog against the range of (77,A7s).

We're getting 2.93-1 expressed odds to call the $150 more on the turn ($440/$150).

We still have $197 left after that turn call. This goes into our implied odds bank. Factoring in implied odds [($440 +$197)/$150] = we're getting around 4.25-1 to call.

Perhaps it's not a call if we factor in the 1/10 time we run into A7. I'm too lazy to do the math to find out, but villain's range may not be THIS narrow either. Bottom line: We gotta call if villain raises to $250.

Fold pre-flop.

AP pre, b/f on the flop, unless the V is really capable. You have been solid against him, so he's either giving up on the hand or raising with an overpair on a wet board.

AP flop, b/f on the turn. If you did call the flop bet, then you just hit the perfect card to semi-bluff on the turn. He is going to be VERY strong to be able to call this (which he won't he will raise and let you know).

Thanks for the input. I actually took the aggressive route and check raised to 300$, he insta raises all in. I call. At this point I dont feel I can fold since I built such a big pot and have up to 17 outs. I know that some might not be clean but after his turn bet I put him on JJ+ and thought he could find a fold. My mistake.
5d on river he flips over 1010. Ouch worse overpair possible. I lose to end a thirteen session win streak, oh well start again tomorrow. i had mixed feelings if this was a good aggressive play or just spazz with draw. Ithink its kind of in the middle now.

Really easy fold preflop. Even though stacks are decent, I don't believe we're going to be profitable here playing OOP. Just fold and get ready to play the next 8 hands in position against this guy.

Kinda in a tough spot postflop thanks to being OOP where we will have a hard time controlling the size of this pot. I guess we can't fold TP to one bet since we called preflop, so I also call if I'm in this spot.

I probably just plan on check/raising T/8 turns, but I'm a bit more passive than most.

Pretty scary card on the turn, I wonder why he's betting huge? Is he really bluffing or is he just protecting a made hand? Typically this is more the latter than the former at these stakes.

We're not quite getting 2:1 but we probably only need ~2.5:1 which I'm guessing we can probably make up on the river. I probably call and shove if I hit.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Nice streak! A decent amount of hours per session average or just a bunch of hit & runs?

/derail

I usually play between 2-4 hours during the day. If I play at night I might play longer. I have been out of work for about 3 months so I have some free time before I have to pick up my son in the afternoon. The session where I played this hand was about 6.5 hours where I got in the whole 500$ early slowplaying kings and some other random bad play and luck, but grinded back to about 490 when I gave it away with what I thought was a lot of fold equity and 17 outs. I averaged 200$ wins during streak. I think I played well but I also ran pretty well also.

does anyone think that the villains fold of two pair prior to this is going to make him want to stick to his hand more? posibly thinking he got outplayed and sticking with an overpair this time?

if calling 100 on turn would lead shoving all in regardless of river be+ev?

I really think people are over focusing on the pre-flop play, when the mistakes are much larger on later streets.

Also reading him for the top part of his range from the button in an unopened pot is silly. If I'm in that seat and its folded around to me in a live 1/2 game I'm opening fairly wide and double barreling every time, since they're usually stuck folding and since you seem like a thinking opponent they'd think they can get you to fold.

As someone above pointed out donking on any street would be seem (correctly) like you've got a huge hand again (maybe that same set he read you for earlier, which would make the most sense as a call/raise hand).

Maybe he does then stack off with the top part of his range, but even if he just calls at least you take initiative, you're no longer guessing at his hand, and you catch on those boards enough to make it work.

You pretty much give yourself no way to win here the way it was played other than to actually hit your hand so you lose a great deal of fold equity AND lose the most when you miss.

That is a huge check raise. Nearly clicking it back would be good enough because he is never shoving unless he is ahead and you don't have great equity considering he could have a set or something like JTdd. It would suck but I just don't think you have the equity to make the call...