LOL

Have you done the math on just calling? If you miss the turn, your equity reduces drastically and villain will prob put you all in anyways?
Why not maximise your fold equity by shoving flop in case he doesn't have a straight?

Huh? We are indifferent to whether or not we have fold equity. Why on earth would we want him to fold if he's not ahead of us?

Because we're actually not indifferent to V folding. Anytime we can win a pot without showdown with A high is great in my book, especially when V probably has a made hand already, which his raise indicates he does

You should be. There is more than enough money in the pot to cover our equity difference even in the worst case scenario, therefore you should prefer V calls in ALL scenarios.

Larger OTF, probably close to pot with this equity.
AP
I like shoving.

He only has a straight here so we have no fold equity unless he is a luck/feel and not a maths players. I once had a man in Dessert Storm fold the nut straight to me on a two heart board because he knew the third heart was going to hit and that I had a flush draw. So I guess there is that.

With big draws, we almost always want our Villains to fold as it is simply more +EV than them calling.

For example, take the case where the pot is $1,000,000, we have $100, and we have a big draw that puts us at a clear 60 vs 40 favourite against the Villain. We shove our $100 (as the clear favourite to win the hand). Is it more profitable for us if Villain folds or calls?

In *most* cases when we were are pushing big draws in bloated pots, we want the FE. There will be times when the pot is so small compared to stacks behind that it might be more profitable for the Villain to call than fold, but these are exception cases. Plus you argue whether we should be getting our stack in on a draw in this case since it might narrow the range of hands willing to get it in to those that are crushing us.

If you do the EV calc of Villain folding versus calling in this particular hand, I'm pretty sure you'll find him folding is way more profitable for us.

ETA: Another way of looking at it is from the Villains perspective. If he knew what we had (a big draw), he'd know that his TP hands have an easy call getting the odds (even if they are an underdog). He would make a mistake by folding (and obviously we want him to make a mistake).

GtoolazytodothemathG

if V folds, the EV is the pot, or +$210

last time i checked, $210 > $52

no, because:
make no mistake, we're shoving to win the pot right now because the EV is way higher if V always folds. our outs are the backup plan.

that may be your experience, but Vs, in general, have a way wider range than just a straight, especially Vs who are:

I think a lot of people over-value these. Some half-empty type thoughts:

1. Do we really believe both overcards are good outs?
2. Have we thought about whether he might have a redraw?
3. How much fold equity do we really have in this spot? Wouldn't he be more likely to just call the $35 if he had a hand he would consider folding? I.e. is this guy putting in a raise and then folding to our shove?
4. Didn't this flop just smack this guy's range, REAL HARD?

against a button calling range? there will be times. a lot of people in this thread is getting too caught up on what Vs specific hand is. we're playing against a range of hands. V has hands in his range that we are currently ahead of (K9dd for example), V has hands in his range that our overcards are outs against (KTdd for example). do these hands that we're ahead of and hands that a single A/Q would put us ahead dominate his range? no, of course not, but that is rarely the case.

unless you're planning on folding the flop, his redraw is pretty inconsiquential, as we're priced in on virtually every turn to call a shove.

i've seen stupider folds. i'm sure we all have, or we all would if we've played long enough. fact is, it's a question that is impossible to answer until after you see someone fold something so amazing LOLstupid, or until you see them station down with something similarly LOLstupid

the read on V is that he's aggressive, regardless of situation, so would he call rather than raise if he was considering folding? no, not necessarily. there are plenty of people who 'raise to see where they're at'

yes, yes it did. scroll up to #20 where i literally go through an EV calc of V having only sets and straights, ie our worst case scenario. we're still +EV if he calls a shove. once you start adding hands in like KTdd, Txdd, 9xdd, AJ, KJ, QJ, it starts to push our equity to ~60% range.

how wide of a range he would push, i have no idea, but starting with the worst case scenario and then branching out is the most conservative way to look at the hand, and that's decently profitable in the long run.

OK, yeah, I didn't read the board right. I made the comments referencing suited broadway hands flopping flush draws, generally.

In this case, even if we change the 8d to a 7d, and stick with the worst case scenario of sets and straights, we still have 41%, which is thin value with these stack sizes.

So with 100bb, a non-paired board, and at least a full gutshot to go with our NFD, we're probably committed.

It only becomes a bit more problematic at 150bb + I suppose.

+1

Stupidest fold I've ever seen personally was when someone min check/raised me twice ON THE SAME STREET (the flop) and then folded to my shortish 5bet shove getting ~10:1. So, yes, we always have some FE.

Gsomepeopleplayreallybadinattemptingto"findoutwher etheyareat"G

I once had some fold equity when I thought I had none <> I will always have some fold equity in the future