$1/2

$320 effective stacks (v covers)

V - 40 y/o white teacher. Has been getting hit with the deck harder than anyone I've seen in months. He's run his stack up over $1,000 making boat after boat, straight after straight. He's running like God.

Pre-flop, he's very loose. He's seeing close to 50% of flops. He's a mixture of passive and aggressive both pre and post. He'll raise pre with a wide range. He'll call pre with a wide range. I'm guessing he's bluffing with next to nothing with 10-15% of his turn and river bets. He's just showed up with the nuts so often, it's tough to pin him down. He does dumbass stuff like just calling with A9 on and AA4JJ board with 4 spades when a bluffy fish bets into him on the river. Overall, he's just a rec player getting hit with the deck.

Pre-flop
Hero raises to $12 from MP with QQ
LP calls in LP
V calls on the button

Flop ($33)
J107
Hero bets $25
Both V's call

Turn ($108)
2
Hero bets $50
LP V folds
V calls

River $208
J

Hero? (Hero has $233 behind)

What's the plan for the river? B/f small? C/C? C/F? Shove? Bet/call?

C/C most bets probably.

B/F $75 as a blocker. Good news is, given the Aces full hand where he didn't raise the nuts, there's an even better chance he doesn't raise here without the goods. He may just flat a J. Very hard to see him bluff raising missed a SD/FD.

b/f $50. As a blocker, but also something he might call just because he's curious and has a big stack.

Due to position, agreed with the above. I bet 1/3 - 1/4 of pot as a blocker and I would fold any raise.

More pre, more on turn. Go to value town.

River I don't see the merit in betting. He's not calling with his missed draws (huge part of range, along with Jx), and is he really bad enough to call three barrels with Tx? River is a check/eval imo and it would be good to have a better sense of his betting tendencies. Against a rec player who likes to get out of line, usually their value sizing is smaller and bluff sizing bigger, so I would start from there as far as a sizing tell to evaluate river. Physical tells also include "looking weak when strong, strong when weak."

Disagree. Could bet bigger on turn but w/e. It's fine.

We're block betting the river so we don't get bluffed off the best hand. He'll raise with a J and fold the rest. If we check, we're in no-man's land.

I don't think "avoiding getting bluffed off the best hand" is a reason to bet... Especially on the river where pretty much no one shoves as a bluff after you 3 barrel.

Checking to induce on the other hand is a pretty common /profitable play vs aggressive players where draws are a huge part of their range. But OP says V has a bluffing frequency of only 10-15% so what are we worried about? Frankly this is going to end up being a check fold if he valuebets 1/2pot.

Sizing is fine throughout the hand imo.
Sure, you could increase your sizing a bit (particularly on the turn), but no big deal.

I'd b/f $60 on the river. It's so small that AK and AQ can hero call us (along with any Tx, any pocket pair).

We're never getting bluffed raised here.

If we c/c, we allow villain to set the price to showdown, and it will probably be more than $60. If he's bluffing, he'll bet more than $60, and if he has a Jack, he'll bet more than $60.

I'd prefer a slightly bigger turn bet. I'm check/calling this river against this villain. Sounds like he's betting the later streets often enough that he might take the bait with his draws. I think there are more busted draws that will bet for us in his range than there are 10x's that will call us in his range.

If he bets huge on the river, I'll look for a physical tell and evaluate. If he bets $100 or less, I snap call.

Raise bigger pre. $18-20.

In my So Cal and Vegas games, $12 gets called four or five ways.

We should make a pot sized bet on the turn, it didn't help anyone.

Take the hundred bucks if they let us.

Or make them pay to make their two-outer, since it's likely at least one of them has a J. But it's harder to tell since we made the $50 call so inviting when the 2 came.

As played, we can give away $50 as a blocker if we get C/R'd or we can check call if we are feeling lucky.

Pot the flop and turn. Why so small on turn?

So many draws missed I would c/c to let him bet them, which I think are a sizable part of his range

I would make a small bet $50-75. I think checking is weak and your opponent could shove bluff.

If he shoves you can decide whether to fold or not (I would).

Based on what you wrote I think he will just call.

I honestly think you got him here.