It's too late to ask a question, so I'll just say this has been the most amazing well ever. I respected you so much before you did this because you have such a great mind for the game and happen to be down to earth, humble, and kind. It's very nice to see. Anyways, you've been one of my favorite 2p2ers for quite some time now but after this you're now my number one fav ftw!

I haven't played a ton of nl lately. Maybe I'll make up a cool hand.

Oooooh actually, I'll tell you about a play I like. I didn't name it but I think I'll call it the 'Root Beer'.

$10k stacks.

Loose semi-aggro decent player opens to $350 from the HJ at 50/100. I make it $1300 from SB with AJss or KK.

Flop T54 two spades. ($2700)
I give him the root beer and bet $650

He usually won't have a hand, but he won't want to fold for $650 into that pot. So he can either return my root beer and make it $2500 (I shove, he folds usually), or he can make a float.

Let's say he chooses to float, which he will fairly often.

Turn Qo or T or 7o, or whatever.

There are two options I like on the turn after I root beer the flop.

One is a check shove. That's kind've the logical one, right? We've forced them to float, so we should let them bluff. But sometimes they check behind, and sometimes they have a weak made hand.

What I like to do more is bet $1500 into the $4000.

What usually happens is that they fold, since they don't have a hand. But a lot of times what happens is they think "hmmmm I can't call this, I have 4 outs/no outs/bottom pair. But why did I float then? To take away this pot. RAISE"

They make it $4k and I shove and they fold. Tada!

It also works nicely with bluffs because you lay yourself a nice price.

A Banana thief (n) is one who has successfully banana theifed (v).

I realize I may not have made this clear to everyone, but yes, it's always an 'F' whether you pluralize or put it in past tense.

Thanks, Stephen.

I think you might be an actual, real-life crazy person, but I love you.

I actually am very unsure about this. My initial thoughts were different than many of the responses from posters who I respect a lot.

I would guess, 88, 75s, KJo, A2s

go to sleep, imo



great read

There is a concept called variance that a lot of poker players know about. In order for good poker players to use their positive edge to have a reasonably good chance of achieving their expected win rate, they must have a reasonably good chance to avoid going broke so that they can continue making the +eV decisions that make them money.

1) Suppose that the contestant on Deal or no Deal is a poker player in the same situation that was described above and whose net worth consists entirely of her poker bankroll which is exactly C times the banker's offer. 2) Suppose also that this poker player's goal is to satisfy the condition that F(X,D) = Integral(Probability(x), X-D/2, X+D/2, x) >= p(X,D), where the interval [X-D/2,X+D/2] is some range of her career total expected earnings, p(X,D) is some function of (X,D), and Integral(Probability(x), X-D/2, X+D/2, x) is the probability that her career total expected earnings will be within D of X. This poker player has a win rate given by the formula W(s,t) where s is the stakes and t is the time. We will assume for now that W depends on nothing else.

NOW SIR, will you please show me, using these assumptions, how the contestant's next decision on this particular episode of Deal or no Deal will be affected by the function p(X,D), W(s,t) and C??? SIR, I ask you now to show me what the best decision is as a function of W(s,t) and C if her goal, rather than those stated in assumption 2, is simply to maximize her total career expected earnings. Exactly! It follows trivially after using some mathematical formulas that for any reasonable/reasonably ambitious p(X,D), modest/common value for C, decent win rate W(s,t), and reasonable career length T, the best decision is that with zero variance ("Deal!").

It astonishes me that any self respecting poker player/2p2er would post such an ignorant statement on these forums. I am disgusted.





















Anyone (other than me) leveled yet?

Great read! Things u have said really put a lot of things in perspective for me.

i meant what u said, it can only be done against someone very straightforward/predictable that wont turn it against u.

Sorry to burst your boners, but I don't think I can make it this year.

I really do wanna go, but I have one of my best friends visiting, staying with me till the 5th, and my brother visiting on the 10th. I don't think showing up from the 6th to 9th would be worth it.

Bedtime.

Wow, one of the best 2p2 threads ever. Thanks. -BA

Phil, how many bluff articles have you written and are they archived anywhere? I cant find them on the site... if not if would be great if you could have them made available somewhere.

great thread.

what books have you read and think are essential to have? (poker + non poker)

JMan,

Great thread. FYI, these things usually work by saying 'I will be in The Well until midnight two days from now' or something similar in the OP. Then you don't get sucked in forever. However, for the benefit of myself and everyone else I hope you just stay sucked in forever.

Also, MDMA - I agree with you that the line, as written, is less 'profound' than 'wrong' but given the GBucks article it is clear that JMan did not mean it literally as written. My take is that he meant that he focuses more on exploiting his opponent's leaks and less on playing unexploitably himself.

- TWP

Thanks for this great thread.

I learned a lot from it!

k, i have the pca and such, but don't think i'm not goiong to take you up on this in a few weeks

Jman, usually people stay in the well for about 3 weeks (someone pay the man in case he doesnt believe me :S )

Favorite Jamba item?

Jman,
Why are you my favorite poster?

Five favorite books and five favorite movies?

Agreed. A few months ago I started going through a bunch of Phil's old posts and printed a few of them out and stuck them around my desk and wall so I could remember them while I was playing and it helped me more than anything. I had to keep taking them down cause I didn't want my friends seeing, haha, but after this thread I might have to start again.

Way too much imo

Nah Phil ...everyone who has met me IRL,finds out quickly who/what I am all about

Besides this being probably the BEST 2+2 thread I have ever read,it has also been void of the usual idiotic punks that have recently ruined HSNL

Bravo everyone,and esp. you Jman!

GL,
Stephen

EDIT: One question I have after absorbing everything on this thread with admiration.You made a statement about ..."not being happy/jealous" if any of your friends make a big score or something?

You dont seem like the type of guy that would root AGAINST your buddies...or did I mis-understand you or were you serious?

Amazing thread, thanks for taking the time to do this...

Earlier you talked about how a lot of people who get coaching, don't necessarily benefit from it because they don't ask the "right questions?"

Could you perhaps elaborate on what types of questions, would be the right questions?

Now I understand that this is largely player specific, however, maybe you could shed some general insight anyways? Because, it seems like a lot of players plateau or level off, or hit a wall so to speak w/ developing their games, what kinds of things should these players be doing to continue to improve, what questions do they need to ask themselves and others?

Jman,

I will hire you as my improv coach.

For my first skit: I'm pretending to be a great poker player. I'm on the button with 98s. UTG, a TAG, opens ...........