Hero is in second orbit, has played 2 hands so far

1. Open cut off with 77 4 callers,(utg l/c)kq5ssx
Checks around
7x turn
Checks to hero who bets 75
Villain calls
5x no flush cane through
V checks
Hero bets 175, v folds

2. Asian short stack opens to 15 ep, hero 3bets to 50 with KK from co, he calls, heads up, 9 high board he goes all in for 100 and spikes a J otr


450 effective, hero covers
Few hands later villain is guy from 1st hand, portly gentleman in his late 50s early 60s, I have never played with him before,

I am in the BB with AJo, 5 limpers, I raise it up to 35

Everyone but villain in mp folds

~90

Jd8d2x

Villain checks out of turn, hero bets 75
Villain raises to 200

???

Spot is annoying but probably folding. I don't think described villain is semi-bluffing/bluffing here very often at all. Range looks like 2pair+

There is a chance he could be raising to "see where he's at" with TP, but in general people size these types of raises smaller

With no other read or information on villain, I'm giving him credit for a better hand or a good draw the first time he raises in this sort of situation. Stack size sticks you between shove and fold, so fold.

Yes villain will show up here with a bluff some of the time, but there are so many flush draws here that your a slight underdog too that calling is -EV without a good handle on villain's range.

Even less likely after checks out of turn, then raises. Villains who do this are so excited about springing a trap, they can't wait.

i don´t like folding the best possible flop to get once we choose a higher variance line preflop with AJ (which i like btw).

we are still pretty much readless, so as a default i´m pretty happily shoving here.

Would you say he is kinda angle shooting with the check out of turn then raise?


I'm ok with not raising preflop. Not looking to play a big pot OOP with AJo

Agreed, they can't wait... His sizing also is pretty strong, I don't see any 2p in his range... Alot of sets though.
If he wants to know where he's at, he prob min raises ish
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a tell can go both directions imo with an unknown, and it´s pretty easy to misinterpret one and therefore take the wrong decision.

OP didn´t provide any relevant reads at all on this villain, so in that case, we should look for the best possible default play imo. we bloated the pot with a pretty marginal hand like AJ, which probably is +EV though, and got one of the best flops. if i´m not planning on stacking off on this particular flop, i wouldn´t raise preflop either.

we basically only lose to two sets, we don´t have relevant reads whatsoever on villain, i really don´t like folding the top of my range here (AA = AJ in this spot).

With less than 100 BBs, and a reasonably drawy board, I'm getting it in here.

bumping it. no real consensus yet, and i´m curious...

clear consensus to folding

this

against his c/r range which I think would consist of 2pairs, sets, big draws like 9Tdd, and throw in a spaz with KJ and a weirdly played QQ we have 20% equity. if he's bluffing so be it. move on and play the next hand.

i think this is why we shouldn't bloat the pot OOP with AJo

Do you happen to have the A of diamonds?

I couldn't agree more. I'm not a fan of raising in either blind position with AJo. More likely to get yourself in trouble than win a big pot.

As played, I think it's a fold. It's possible he could have KJ or QJ, but imo it's not really worth calling off your whole stack to find out. There are better spots to pick.

I also think you could bet 55-60 OTF and get the same info as you did from betting 75......fwiw

Vill's limp/calling range is likely pocket pairs, suited Aces, suited connectors and suited gappers. Raising on the flop he likely has JJ,88,22, and J8 as his value range and T9 and all diamond draws (so all Ad/Xd, Kd,Q/Td, QdTd, down to like 5d4d). I don't have stove, but it seems like just a matter of then stoving it.

Pretty sure your avg live rec. player in his 50's isn't shipping here with draws

what is the bottom of our calling range then, if we fold AJ in this spot? JJ precisely?

I'd call with JJ, 88, QTdd, AKdd, AQdd

Absent any crazy reads, it's a fold. We are behind any reasonable raising range.

I don't think it's true that AJ=AA here. For one, AA has way more equity against draws and against J8ss. Secondly, I rarely totally eliminate QQ+ from a random live fish's flop raising range no matter how unusual pre-flop is.

I am happy folding AJ and still being able to continue with 88, JJ+, draws.

It's probably a sigh fold, but I think you bet too much. $50-$60 should be plenty. $70 seems overly strong IMO.