Weird Spot Flopped Second nuts super wet board 80bb effective $2/5 8 way limped pot - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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Weird Spot Flopped Second nuts super wet board 80bb effective $2/5 8 way limped pot

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09-20-2011 , 02:57 AM

BAEVentures

veteran

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 2,961

Villain BU (Covers) On the better side of the regs at this venue but is still pretty terrible overall. Very loose passive pre-flop but taggy post-flop, rarely bluffs. Capable of playing monster draws both aggressively and passively.
Hero MP ($350) 9

TAG/NIT image. Been card dead for about 3 hours, haven't shown down a hand.

Preflop ($7): 3 limps to me, I over-limp, 2 limpers behind, and blinds check their option.

Flop ($36) 8 players: T

SB checks, BB leads $15, UTG calls $15, 2 folds, Hero raises to $60, 1 fold, Button raises to $200, folds back around to hero who ???

Villains range to limp the button is virtually any two cards.

Spoiler:

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09-20-2011 , 03:11 AM

CyrusJavid

adept

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 1,030

besides the obvious, fold pre, it is a fold on the flop.

Board: 8h 7h Ts
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.199% 29.11% 13.09% 11240 5053.00 { 9s6s }
Hand 1: 57.801% 44.71% 13.09% 17264 5053.00 { TT, 88-77, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah6h, QhJh, Qh9h, JhTh, J9s, Th9h, 96s, 6h5h, J9o, 96o }

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09-20-2011 , 03:39 AM

lawdude

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 10,305

If you do have 42 percent equity, you are calling $140 into a $326 pot closing the action. This is a call. I suspect the math supports a shove unless the board pairs on the turn or the flush hits too.

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09-20-2011 , 04:14 AM

BAEVentures

veteran

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 2,961

Quote:

Originally Posted by lawdude

Don't think of it as calling $140, think of it as calling $285 to win $465. Pretty certain we don't have any fold equity with a shove, and flatting and letting a heart roll off and then check folding would be terrible IMO. Basically it's a shove or a fold in this spot.

We are effectively getting 1.63 to 1, and therefore need 38% equity to make the call.

I also think we can discount a couple combos of TT from villains range as he is likely to raise these on the button. He could also have two pair in this spot and we could include some T8ss for the sake of adding some combos, not sure if he takes this line with top two though.

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09-20-2011 , 04:15 AM

BAEVentures

veteran

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 2,961

Quote:

Originally Posted by CyrusJavid

How is 42% equity a fold ?

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09-20-2011 , 04:18 AM

bulls_horn

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 4,406

Quote:

Originally Posted by CyrusJavid

besides the obvious, fold pre, it is a fold on the flop.

I wont argue that play pre is questionable, but then OP basically acceeded to that in his spoiler.

As played, though, how do you fold the second nuts w/backdoor straight flush draw for less than 70bb? Maybe Deuces Cracked made a video...

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09-20-2011 , 04:23 AM

BAEVentures

veteran

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 2,961

Quote:

Originally Posted by bulls_horn

Not saying it's a fold, just that when I ran the numbers when I got home that it was A LOT closer than I thought, IE the EV of making the call is +$18 against the range outlined above. [$465*(42%-38%)]=$18.60...And yeah 75bb starting stack, no clue why I put 80bb in the heading...

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09-20-2011 , 04:57 AM

canoodles

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 7,017

Shove. We have the second god-damn nuts on a god-damn straight/fd board with god-damn 80bb effective. WTF? P.S. I don't see why villain's range can't have 87, 107, 108 as well.

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09-20-2011 , 08:42 AM

Madmaniac21

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 2,638

Grunch even the initial post.

REALLY SIR? Why post this? Did you even read your own thread title you wrote?

More and more of the HHs posted here belong in BBV

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09-21-2011 , 03:18 AM

#10

8o8

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 2,875

all-in obv

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09-21-2011 , 05:19 AM

#11

k9bastard

newbie

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 20

shove...

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