Quote:
Originally Posted by sknight
What a great hand to post. A few thoughts:
1. While betting this flop is def. good (I prob. do it more than most), checking to this raiser is by far best given his description as bluffy and a bad lag. So flop is good.
2. I think we can rule out JJ from John since it is so unlikely given how deep you are that he would c/c the turn. I also don't think he would c/c the turn with 55, A7 or J7.
3. His river lead looks strong since not only is he leading into you but also into a calling station in the other villain.
4. However, I think that the best way to play a strong hand for him would be a c/r since he would trap your bet and V2 call. So the only reason for him to lead would be if he felt the river would get checked through a lot.
5. QQ is the most obvious value hand he is doing this with here. It would makes sense preflop, flop, and turn. Q7 is the only other value hand he could do this with based on previous action.
6. While I doubt this is a bluff often, the fact that you can't have JJ or QQ, coupled with his aggro style is something to consider. If he feels like you will muck everything except the big full here then I dunno. Maybe he turned 67,78, or 68 into a bluff?
These points you made were all some of the things I considered while tanking on river.
1. Yea I think flop could go either way, but the initial raiser bluffs so often I think is check is slightly better. By checking to him not only do I get him to put lots of money in behind, but also have opportunities to generate raises/light calls from all the other players before it gets back to me since they also know he continuation bets light.
2 I thought hard about 2 and think he has to almost always raise these hands given our stacks, but I guess there is a slight possibility that he wouldnt. (Maybe he knew I would raise good sevens on river and planned a bet three bet river to go for stacks?)
3. This is probably true, but I also think he is capable of value betting thin here as well given that player 2 likes to call and I might check behind. I would not put it past him to bet AJ or random queens here for value. Although, I don't think this is that likely since he is probably better off bluff catching these hands on river against me
4. I do not totally agree with this point. If he check raises my river bet it will be extremely unlikely he will also get a call from the second player. Also, if he checkraises my river bet he will not be able to stack me when I do have sevens since I will likely bet around 1400 and he will raise to maybe 6k. This will leave roughly 8k of my stack behind. Whereas if he bets and I raise with trips...he can go for my full stack.
5. I agree with this. I definitely think he is very capable of having QQ here pre since he will mix up his game, and there are some deep stacks. But I think an important side factor to consider is: Shouldn't he be 3betting to isolate QQ very often against a loose player on the button who also plays pretty bad post flop.
6. He knows I cannot have QQ or JJ here ever. But he also has respect for my game and should know that I know he knows this (lol). At that point if hes thinking on that level it becomes a bit of a leveling game. We have a decent amount of history and he has seen me make big calls in the past if I think the situation merits it.
I initially had that thought that he also could turn a six with bad kicker into bluff. I discussed this with another good regular in the game and he disagreed with that...and said he would always just call river with 6 since I sized it smallish.