Lately I've been thinking about where my profits come from in poker. My winning over the past years is very inconsistent, but has a general upward trend as I think I've improved during the time. I think I came up with the following equation:
My profits = My ability - Average opponent ability - rake
As I play different times of day/days of the week I find I run into some good players in my room. People who play higher stakes and I get run down a bit as the 2nd term in my equation increases.
Also I think I've found a bias I have - I see when I get unlucky (ex. I open KQ the other day, some weak passive player calls IP, flop 7-4-2, x x, turn Q, bet call, river brick, bet call - he has AQ). I remember these moments where I was 'unlucky' or on the receiving end of 'it'. But I never see the times where I gut the other guy (ex. flop comes T-T-4 and I have AT and gut someone with QT). Because they don't show their hand. This leads me to a confirmation bias where I think I dont suck out on people but only get sucked out on.
Lately I've been on the receiving end moreso and while I'm not losing money, I'm up ~100$ over the past 126 hours of live play. Analyzing tough hands I've found I lost the minimum a lot and sometimes made a misclick - ex. should have check-folded but instead bet-folded small. My plan is to take several weeks or months off.
Ex hand:
6 handed, H on 235$, 1/3.
H opens A
6
in CO to 20, V calls BTN, all others fold. HU OOP to a flop of Q
6
3
, H cbets 20, V calls. Turn (85) - 6
, this V is very aggressive and pounces on perceived weakness so I decide to check (?), he checks back (oof). River (85) - 7
, check again, he bets pot, I jam, he snaps with 77 beating my trips.
But my thinking has been: Are we just shovelling money back and forth? Especially when I play the higher up 2/5, 10/20ish players...it's like the hands play themselves and the casino just takes their cut.