TT in the CO. I've been fairly active and gotten caught in two cbets. Main villain is a black guy from the south side of chicago who, while isn't a pure gambler, isn't a good player either. He's been pretty passive. He certainly thinks he's good though. He's in the BB.

Anyways, here we go:

Early limp, I pop to 25, two callers.

Flop (75):
456

I bet 45. Not to happy with this board really, and I'm going to fold this pretty easily versus this board against this villian. Villain calls quickly.

Turn T (165)

I bet 120. Turn is a great card, villain probably has a seven. Villain again calls quickly. Almost positive he has a seven.

River 7 (405)

Villain insta shoves for 405. I cover.

Obviously bleh, BUT some questions to address:

1) What ****ing eight does this guy have?
2) Is he doing this with a 3? What 3?
3) Is he doing this with something like 76 or 75?
4) Is this the worst possible play by villain? lol.

Is it possible villain c/called with 87 and slowplayed for 2 streets? Some villains who think they are amazing like to slowplay. Maybe he has a hand like 86 hearts.

1) I can see this happening with 88 here, maybe A8s but I don't see him drawing to a gut-shot with two overs on the flop and one over on the turn.
2.) Almost never, maybe A3s though?
3) 76 is probably in his range here.
4) If he has the straight this is a pretty bad play, but I don't mind a shove when he hits two pair because your play looks an awful lot like 99-AA.

Your sizing flop/turn is too small. $60 flop, pot turn. That way it's a lot easier to get stacks in on the river and you charge his pair+draw hands more while they can still call.

I think villain has exactly 3h4h. Just kidding.

Seriously though it just comes down to whether he has 7x in his range or not. Does he call hands like 79o and A7o preflop? You have a better read than us on that... if you stove it it will just come down to how many 7x hands take this line. Read wise insta shove usually means strength, so you are going to be beat here a lot. I would think he would at least think about shoving trips with a oneliner to a straight, but who knows. Tough spot. Not enough info to tell you anything useful as this is villain dependent.

But who are we kidding, nobody folds top set on a non-flush board getting 2:1 while at the table no matter what pokerstove says when we get home, right?

Is he really shoving two pair though?

Like, I'm sitting there, and I'm completely baffled because there isn't one hand the villain could have played well and I have the absolute top of my perceived range.

Wow, what an ugly spot. I interpet the insta-shove as either "oh I'm super excited I made my hand I shove", or "wow good bluff card he can't call I shove" to look strong, or "I just hit two-pair and I don't know what to do so I shove!". I wouldn't be surprised to see a few bluffs (mostly things that are being turned into bluffs though, but obviously we beat all of these), and worse for value, but not really exclusively for "value", but "I-just-hit-two-pair-on-a-scary-board-and-I-don't-know-what-to-do-so-I-shove-maybe-he-has-aces" value. I think he can definitely have a set of 77s a lot. He does have a few 8s though (88, 86, 87 that slowplayed, A8, 108, etc) and some 3x's that probably take this line as well, and are kind of grouped into that "I hit and don't know what to do" category. I think I call.

Also Ike, I agree with you that almost whatever villain has, he played it poorly.

I really think it's this.


FWIW, I call here because he shows up with smaller sets a lot and sometimes two pair, and good for him if he was playing Ah8h or some other stupid holding.

I do think you have to call given villain description. But you are not at the top of your perceived range (although not far). Also, that's not a concept that matters here. That's a concept that applies against aggressive regs who you know are going to try to push you off of hands in certain spots, so since you have to call sometimes and fold sometimes to prevent yourself from being exploited, you choose the top of your perceived range to call with. You don't have this here. You just have a guy on whom you don't have enough reads to know a reasonably tight range. He has no reason to be making a move on you. He clearly thinks he is strong (unless he has a hand like AhJh I guess...). It's just a matter of if his 'strong' is appropriate here given the situation.

I think it's close. Whenever it's close, it doesn't matter much what you do since close should mean the ev of both decisions is not far apart. Calling is more fun than folding and gives you more info on the villain, so....

Call. As someone stated earlier, he prob doesn't know if he is bluffing or value betting. But when you check it to him, he is gonna see that as weakness.

Btw I bet/fold 100 OTR

not a hard laydown with 4 to a straight on the board. if dude bluffed you then more power to him

Yeah, I think a gay blocking bet is in order vs described player.

Big bets aren't exploitable. If he does this with a ratio 2-1 (nuts to air), it's probably more effective than value-betting 200 dollars twice with the nuts and losing the 3rd hand. That's especially true if you're like most people and fold too often.

Bottom line, it might not make sense to us on this site, but, Villain has a straight here way too often for us to profitably call a pot-sized bet. People don't stick in $400+ in 2/5 NL live on this river without having a straight (the fact that he's a bad player works both ways. This could make it MORE likely he has some weird hand with an 8 or 3).

He can have an 8x hand that was a pair+gutshot on the flop. He can have 88 or 33. He can have flopped it with 87. He can also have 98 and been drawing to it (would probably have to be 9h8h in order for even this player to call this turn).

Remember, not everyone thinks like we do on this site. It may seem non-standard and bizarre FOR US to play a hand that is a straight by the river in this fashion ..... but it isn't to Villain.

Yahtzee.

Villians at 2/5 aren't familiar with idea of turning a made hand into a bluff and are going to c/f this river more often then they donk 400$ into it with a bluff.

Fold.

nice

It looks like there's some confusion as to who has what position here. If I'm reading the OP right, Hero is in position and Villain shoved into him; Hero does not have the chance to gaybet.

I think this is marginal and calling isn't a mega-blunder, but I would fold here and 2ONP did swell at describing why.

1. 88/86/85
2. A3/33
3. Not if he's been passive
4. Irrelevant. But I would take a line like his in position against some opponents, so no not worst possible ever.

Well, results time:



Frankly, I leveled myself into calling. Villain's line is pretty much the worst ever line for value, so I got myself into thinking I'm good here 33% of the time.

I don't think that's really true. Villain is most likely actually that bad, and it's unlikely villain is doing this with 77 or 76.

I wouldn't feel bad about it. 99.9% of people on this forum would have called here. The only ones who wouldn't are nits who would fold because of MUBS, not because they went through a sophisticated hand-reading analysis and determined while in the hand that it's -EV.

How is that going to help? If he has the straight, he raises. If he doesn't, then he calls. In the first outcome, we still have a tough decision. In the second, we lose money. Right?

Tough spot, but I would call.

VS

Yeah, we're in position and villain open shoved.

This all comes down to heros reads on villain. This spot is so polarized against a villain of the Op's description that all we have with top set is a bluff catcher. So there is one important question and one only...would this villain bluff here? If the answer is yes then its a call. The avg low stakes villain is never merging 2pair or a set here. This is a straight or nothing.

Grunching, sucks but you aren't good here, so fold

He's not shipping worse for value and people aren't good enough to bluff here.