$1-3, 7 handed - Hero has been active and aggressive.

Raise to $15 from LJ, get 4 callers including the tightest player at the table on the BTN.

Flop [$60] AKTr. I bet $50, call from decent young Asian male and the BTN.

Turn [$210] 9c. I bet $125, HJ folds, BTN shoves for $400, Hero covers.

I have to figure lots of 2p, and TT in his range, right? I can't be afraid of the one straight hand, and even if he has that I have at least 10 outs? (douting some due to action, likely some face cards are gone).

Only reason I could maybe find a fold here is that BTN's been pretty tight/passive. I've been C-betting him all day and getting lots of folds. Also the shove is for so much.

Is this just a pretty standard cooler?

Never folding. AK, KK, TT could all take this line

Agree. No way folding. Cooler if beat.

There are only two real questions here.

First is whether he would call pf with QJs. If not, easy call on your part.

Second is whether he would shove here with bottom set. If yes, you have to call. If no, then you fold.

You seem to think he can have 2pair here, so it is an easy call. I don't know what a tight passive player is to you, so really we can't help you. At 1/3, what I consider tight passive people don't jam 100 BB+ without the nuts, though.

Shove is for $275 into a pot that is already $460. This is not "so much," but less than 2/3 pot.

If you call, your $275 will represent 27% of the $1,010 pot. You have 22.6% equity against a straight here, down to 19% if we assume 2 of your outs are dead. You only need to make up 8% equity to make this a call, which means that even if we give him all the QJ combos we only need him to have two combos of sets (e.g. TsTd and TsTh) to get to a profitable call. Super easy call.

Snip snap even if he has QJ in all 16 combos.

I actually think you can get away from this hand. It's like the most obvious straight board ever. It all comes down to if villain is an idiot or not. If he's an idiot, you can call off easy since he can be doing this with a lot of hands that you beat. If he's smart/knows what is going on, you can fold since the obvious best hand is the straight and he isn't going to shove with worse.

I’m skeptical that KK is going to overcall BU very often. I can’t say I’ve never seen it, but it’s uncommon. AK and TT might also 3 bet.

I’m also skeptical that someone who is described as tight is going to rip two pair after the PFR bet fairly large 5 ways on the flop and bets turn on a board the pfr smashes.

I mean we need like 26% to call and have 23% against a straight so yea call it off but he has a straight ridiculously often, I absolutely would not put a lot of two pairs in his range unless he’s not tight and he’s just really bad. If we were getting a worse price I could find a fold vs some tight villains.

Even if he has AT, what could he possibly be hoping to get value from when you bet 5 ways on the flop and bet turn?

Bet less on the flop.

You do realize that we are close to having enough equity even if he shows us the straight, right? We literally only need 2 other combos in his range, even if he has all 16 combos of QJ, as mentioned above. That means that if there's an 11% chance he has something else, we need to call. Hell, with LLSNL Vs there's usually 10% chance of complete random spazz, not to mention potential undersets, etc.

Folding here would be really bad, even though we are mostly depending on the board pairing.

I honestly don't think villain would do this with anything other than air or QJ

obviously math makes call standard but this is a spot where i'm overfolding

5 players saw the flop... QJ is going to be there a lot and OP is strongly repping two pair or better

he's almost never flatting AK/KK preflop, especially with so many callers, TT is a possibility of just calling, QJo/QJs are fist pump flat and see a flop from the btn 5 handed cards and very much in his flatting range here

is he really going to to get out of line here with a bluff or 2 pair? I legit don't see anyone bluffing in spots like this very often where the OR keeps firing bullets despite multiple players on a board that fits his range to a T

5 handed to the flop I think he either has TT or QJ here all day

having gotten as far as you have i think you have to call for reasons garick stated

but had villain been much deeper you gotta Vayo here imo and I'm definitely overfolding despite garicks correct math logic in a lot of spots here depending on my read of the villain... who you stated is the table nit...

this is why it helps to drink at the table, you can ignore the nerd math and play exploitively

Forgot to consider that we aren't dead if we call, thank you. Thought we were at river.

+1.
Would be nice to see a turn against something other than sets+ once in a while.

We’re getting 2.67:1 on a call. So we need 27.23% equity.

Even if we give him all 16 QJ combos and like 2 TT combos, we have 31%.

I’d only fold here if he showed me like the Jc. And even then I’m not sure if I’d do it.


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