Quote:
Originally Posted by Stupidbanana
Okay but doesn't it seem like such a fishy line? Check-calling OOP? I can be 25%-36% equity here depending on what he has. Turns out he had A-high so I guess I can be ahead a sliver of the time too. But mainly, against his range, I'd give myself 33%ish. That's if I see two cards. He's betting pot OTF and chonk OTT. I feel like its hard to calculate over two streets but flop to turn I only have what - 20% equity? Idk. I always find this to be a gray area with implied odds. Here I also had a GSSD to go with but what if I had had a non-nut flush? Or the board was Kc-7h-3c? for the naked FD.
I had a hand with a good LAG the other day, one of the best players in our room. I was fairly short stacked and opened KJss and he called IP, a station called OOP from blinds. Flop Jh-Xs-Ys and I gii. He has A2ss and said it was perfectly reasonable for him to call but I thought it was way too loose for 100 BBs effective (but he was IP so its a little different).
Also what if river bricked 2? What am I doing here with <PSB back? x/folding? lead jamming?
Maybe I overlooked some part of the discussion, but I took Mlark's comment to be about our river action OOP, not our action on previous streets, which seems to be what you're talking about here.
A lot of low-stakes players will over-fold to river aggression on a scary run-out, when the OOP opponent goes check-call, check-call, donk-lead huge. But those same players will over-bluff when action checks to them. Some of those players may even make the mistake of turning their thin value hands into a bluff, rather than checking back.
So, in this hand, if we give V AK, he may check back river, or he may bet, but he's not very likely to call a donk-jam on this run-out with just TPTK. And if he had top 2 or a set, he'd have over-bet turn, so we can pretty reliably put him on a 1P hand at best here.
As for the rest of the hand:
PRE - Generally I hate flatting out of the SB, but here, against this V, when he takes this huge sizing, it's fine.
FLOP - Check-calling is fine. I also wouldn't hate a check-raise here, with some frequency.
TURN - Check-calling is okay, but I would definitely prefer a check-raise-jam now. This is the answer to your question about what we do on brick rivers - we semi-bluff jam the turn with equity so we don't have to jam river as a pure bluff.
RIVER - So, yeah, we don't want to just donk-jam, but I also don't like just checking with the hope that he'll bet. Instead, I think I'd prefer a really small block bet, hoping to induce a spaz-raise from a semi-clueless V. $30-$35 ought to do it.