I dont think this flop is dry at all for a preflop calling range in a super deep stacked game. Literally everything is in play.

It's not bone dry but it's definitely dry a king high flop with a small card and a med-small card. Yea theres 2 hearts but heart draws are only a tiny fraction of a 3bet callers range it's definitely not wet enough for someone to be donking out to protect a good made vulnerable hand.

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I agree with your reasoning just not the range. Suited hands make up the bulk of loose live players holdings. Plus there are a variety of goofy garbo nut low straight draws players happily try to bink. 34/35/46 all totally within nearly every live players range that isnt an immediately obvious nit. But yes the flop itself is too dry to really be "protecting" big hands with a donkbet. I mean obviously you're never protecting anything 750BB deep because you have 0 FE. Villain was just randomly clicking buttons and by forfeiting initiative hero became lost on future streets.

He's an old guy who just got felted with a set and didn't want to lose.



I felt like losing initiative put me in a bad spot and players like this like to have control. If I raise the flop here, it gives me so much more control. I played the hand low-variance/weak more than anything.

I got the hand on CLP's call-in show (he didn't know results), but thought the river was a call because there were so few value hands in opponents range, and opponent is only betting sets and AK like this, and so few combos of them, but he liked my play on the first two streets. I wish I raised flop tho.

^ it happens. You didnt make some terrible gross mistake in either scenario (raise flop or call river). I'm sure solver pro's can make a basis for calling other than "**** this guy". I already contradicted myself from the beginning by saying his donkbet makes me want to call the river.... but im too scared to do it for a bet that big. Honestly it is precisely for those reasons I actually dont play more than 300BB's deep to begin with.

The logic on CLP was he didn't think the guy was betting a set out into a 3-bet board. I viewed it as strength, he viewed it as weakness. If he has a set, he's going to check-raise it all day long. I tend to agree with this kind of player. He can expect someone to stab at it. Betting lets him take initiative (and I let him have it). Against these spewey players, when you don't have a hand yet, realizing your equity is huge. The turn I felt like was my spot, but I am powerless against bluffing the old guy. If it was heads up, that feels like a natural place to raise and stack off if he shoves. But with the extra player, raising accomplishes nothing.

On the river, what is he betting for value? We discounted flopped sets here. So that leaves AK, JJ, QT. Can he get here with QT? I have Qh so he can't have QTh, so extremely unlikely. I could see JJ betting flop here with only 1 overcard and give up if called, but then turns a set. KJ is not shoving river here for value with the A showing up and now AK/AJ getting there. So there just isn't a lot of value hands here. But there also are so few bluffs that get here. He could have hearts, but I have two, but at least there are a good number of hearts. But what hearts is he cold-calling a 3-bet with? suited connectors, there are 34h, 45h, 78h, 89h, 9Th, TJh. KJh possible, but don't think he turns it into a bluff. Plus old man has something, and takes away a lot of the combos.

So 6 combos of bluffs with hearts, 3 combos of JJ, 6 combos of AK. Calling 1100 to win 2000, but 1.5x as many value to bluff hands, so can see why calling here might be good. Especially more likely against a player who can do a river bluff like this. Against a lot of standard players, fold is easier as they aren't going to bluff here with this card improving my hand so often. It's a tough place to call, and when you call and are wrong you look extra dumb on the stream, and when you fold, you can just wait 15 minutes and see what he had to make yourself feel better folding. A tip of my cap to the guy who played the hand the way he did.

I'm raising flop as a default play, and especially at this stack depth.

Honestly it can be both. Live players will often donkbet in a panic with a monster hand because they dont want to lose. They dont think about winning stacks, only pots. If the pot size is "good enough" for them they are happy to "take it down now". Their entire attitude is always on short term gains and they are terribly results oriented. If a fish checks with a set here and it actually checks around somehow and you bink a flush on the turn he will curse himself for "letting you get there".

By the river he actually is only repping sets. However your read on him doesnt add up with the kind of player who is scared money trying to win small pots with monster hands. You said he's aggro and even runs big bluffs. There's nothing really that aggressive about a donkbet. It's often a weak play and it's why it's referred to as a donkbet. You cant reliably donkbet a hand because you simply lack the information to lead when someone else has the initiative. The only way it makes sense for someone to donkbet is they either soulread you for strength or the flop texture is so good for a multiway hand that someone else likely has something. For instance having 66 on a 456hh flop with 5 players left to act. Now it's not really so much of a donkbet as it is just a pure value bet against an obvious range advantage everyone else will have.

But here's why raising the flop even vs a dangerous opponent whom might be strong is still perfectly viable. You rep an even stronger hand. You can easily have KK. It puts him in a spot whereby he can ONLY call with sets/draws, and we know he's almost never going to just call with a set. So you basically force him into a quandary where he turns his hand face up that he has a draw if he wishes to continue, and since you are the one in fact drawing to the nuts he's completely toast if it hits. I wouldnt make this play if I were holding AKo for example because the gamble is not worth the reward if we are mistaken and he jams. But with AQhh we're never drawing dead.

Appreciate the post. I am not sure I can call off if he jams here this deep, just out of my comfort zone, I tend to just wait for better spots when there are so many weak players.

Appreciate the post. I am not sure I can call off if he jams here this deep, just out of my comfort zone, I tend to just wait for better spots when there are so many weak players. His donk bet did seem weak to me, but when he continued with the old man still in, I thought he couldn't be weak anymore. Only picking up that gutshot made him a lot stronger.

I think he shoves AK there too on the end.

Well now we know what a donk bet means.