It would need to be +EV against the combinations of hands possible. Its not interesting here because no matter what you are not live to a 4-card flush and a 3-card flush is good.

But if we had a different situation then it wouldn't be relevant to say "J9s may be -EV depending on what suits" because we generally don't know the suits so we need to either call or fold based on whether we are +EV against the combination of all possibilities.

Two-dimes is just as good as pokerstove since we should be calculating the equity of individual hands rather than ranges.

If my thinking is way flawed, just let me know, but against a random hand, our equity is something like 27% here, so the worst hand we could call with in this situation is 72os.

(Posting just cause I would like to see the response)

I don't understand? Re-read the question.

Sry, with 72os vs a random hand, our equity would be around 27%, so in a three way all-in spot like this, we could call with this hand with positive equity. I read it from the perspective we don't actually know...since we don't actually know.

You must have missed my last post. Go back and read it.

|grunch|

Pot: 307BB

KK+, AKo, AKo

We are putting in 100 to win 307, so we need 100/407 = 24.57% equity to call profitably.

AA = 93.421%
87s = 26.160%
86s = 24.745%
76s = 26.721%
75s = 24.824%
65s = 26.738%
64s = 24.760%
54s = 24.582%

So, we can call with AA, 87s, 86s, 76s, 75s, 65s, 64s, 54s. The worst of these is 54s.

I would guess the point of this exercise is to think about why KK, for example, is absolutely crushed (other guy always has AA, all Kings gone => 0.141% equity) while hands like 75s are profitable calls.

The middle suited connectors have better equity than, for example, JTs, because our straights aren't blocked.

I did after I posted. I think we are mostly saying the same thing, but the "widening" and "narrowing" of ranges part doesn't quite fit(since we are talking about a "range" which is really just a collection of single hands that meet a certain condition- having greater than 24.8% equity here so there is nothing to "widen")).

I guess that was the point of the (AA, 22) range I gave(although I didn't calculate that and it may not be +EV since there's only 1 AA and 6 22 combos). There is one exactly optimal range here.

This thread is giving me a headache now. Was doing all my stoving with AKs,AKo when its only AKo. 75s is g2g. Going back to drawing board aka back to the chat thread.


Fwiw... Im just folding this hand now no matter what because of my headache. Lol. WP V10

Grunch.

I'm not a math expert by any means, but here's my attempt...

Assuming that straddle is $4, there will be $607 (200+200+200+1+2+4) in the pot. You need 24.783% equity in order to call.

+EV calling range:

Cards Equity
AA (LDO).
87suited 26.2%
76suited 26.7%
65suited 26.7%
75suited 24.82% - this is the bottom end of your calling range.

pairs don't give you enough equity to call.

Note that you should fold KK here, since that pins UTG+1's range to AA only.

Additional geeking out - ran the calculations for 50 BB stacks as well. In that case, there will be 307 in the pot by the time it gets to you, and you would need 24.57% equity to call. You can call with the above hands, plus 64suited (24.76%), 86suited (24.75%) and 54suited(24.58%).

+1. My first thought was if you love variance then shove with SC all day long. I get the math but all I need to do is look at the roulette wheel on my way in and see 5-7-10+ red numbers in a row. And in theory lotto jackpots could be high enough to be +EV but doesnt mean I am dropping a mortgage payment on it either. What casino is profitable with a less than 1% edge? Pick a better spot where you can play post flop, have a better edge etc.

My range AA period.

****. I did $1/$2 with $100 stacks by accident, but whatever. Same idea.

The pot is $607, or 303.5BB.

if villians all turned over their hands;
and they were AA, AKo, and AKo, and they all cover you,
and youre getting 3:1,
its an unprofitable fold with 56s, 67s, 78s <<< these 3 hands, (w/ @27% equity)
maybe depending on how many of your suit is out?

Nah... doesnt matter if they have two of your outs. I ran it already... hence the headache response.

Most of the thoughts in this thread are surprisingly on track. But there are also some pretty laughable posts, too. I guess my productive post is this:

"What's your +EV calling range?"

That is the question. It is not "What would you call with?" or "What variance can your bankroll allow you to sustain?"

To give an answer in any other terms hints at a possibly larger mental leak - not being able to focus. There are a handful of posters in this thread that have showed this inability to simply read a question and answer it.

above + mental lapses = me. You win Eagle, sigh...

However, I only answered the bonus question and it said what was the worst you could call with...never said profitably...

The bonus question was: What's the worst hand you can call with in this situation.

My answer to that is AA. +EV is nice but playing 50.1/49.9 is a guaranteed route to bankruptcy due to variance. For example I just ran this on excel to illustrate. Using the "randbetween" function and set the range as 0-1. This give you a random 0 or 1 output. Run 250 times... Results


Trials 250
Heads 116
Tails 134
Longest Streak 9

In a pure 50/50, run it 250x and you could lose 9 buy-ins in row and overall 18 buy-ins. Running that trial multiple thousand times over and the net should fall to flat but that streak of 9 is going to repeat and I be willing to say jumps. So here is 1000x - not 250 trials 4 times just 1000 trials.

Trials 1000
Heads 538
Tails 462
Longest Streak 10

In this trial you still could be up/down a whooping 76 buy-ins! That is insane variance for a coin-flip. This is why I try avoid coin-flips which is what even optimal SC are in this spot. And I may be new here but I suppose this is why every thread that starts with "Is x BI enough for my bankroll" every response from an experienced player is you need x^2.


And because people may not believe that 76 number above which seems a bit high, here is 10,000 trials.

Trials 10,000
Heads 4,886
Tails 5,114
Longest Streak 13

So good luck on being profitable on coin flips - it comes down to that. Note we are closer to a 50/50 outcome (51% vs 49%) but the absolute number of possible BIs lost jumps which is what our bankroll cares about.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,251,972 games 25.958 secs 48,230 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 00.139% 00.01% 00.13% 96 1643.00 { KK+ }
Hand 1: 03.216% 01.05% 02.17% 13140 27131.83 { AKo }
Hand 2: 03.201% 01.03% 02.17% 12944 27131.83 { AKo }
Hand 3: 93.444% 93.08% 00.37% 1165328 4637.33 { AA }

AA is 93.4% here. It's FAR from a coin flip. At least make an effort before you post....

He is trying to say AA is the worst he hand he would call with. 87s,76s,65s and 75s are coin flips in his book and that he would not risk a coin flip.

Isn't it 307? According to this we have the original shiver for 100 plus two callers which equals 300 the blinds and straddle have folded making it 307. Do we assume that the other two players are shoving as well? Don't we need to range the other players in the hand as well? Forgive me if this is idiotic, I'm a newb at ranging hands and equity

This is the best post of the thread! Well done.

Uh...you need to read the above again...that wasn't what he was saying.

There is a difference in the following questions.

"What's your +EV calling range?"
"What's the +EV calling range?"

I read the OP, and the +EV calling range has been determined. And I answered it. My +EV calling range is AA. I realize that 65s, 76s, 87s, are also +EV hands. They're just not in my calling range.

To suggest that some have a mental leak by re-posting the OP's question with nothing but a troll attached suggests that you may not understand the difference between your and the. The exercise is a good one, but truthfully, question for all intents and purposes is:

I am saying avoid coin flips...ie suited connectors. AA is obviously a shove.

Do you think folding everything but AA here is a leak? Is that the point of this brain tease - that people like me, who are unwilling to make a call here with suited connectors for the $10 of +EV, are incapable of being big winners in LSNL?

I mean, I know I'd only call with AA ... I don't need to 'gamble' for a a +EV of $10. But I realize if we run this scenario 100,000 times, that's $1,000,000 of EV. I'm still not calling with the ATC mentality that's involved with calling with 67 suited. That's bingo poker as far as I'm concerned.

I hear all the time, 'Well, I can't fold now, I'm priced in.' No, you're not. At least I'm not.