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variance: widening gap between $ won and EV....is this normal? variance: widening gap between $ won and EV....is this normal?
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12-27-2008 , 12:31 AM
#1
HomeyG30
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journeyman
Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 248
OK, so I've only been playing full time using HoldEm Manager for a couple months. I've played 20,200 hands of 2/4NL full ring on FTP...I've won $4,575 but according to my EV adjusted stat I should've won $10,086 (but didn't because of the obvious suckouts, missed draws, etc.).

Meanwhile I've played 1,150 hands of 3/6NL, winning $1,470 but EV adjusted winnings should be $4,440.

Is this just standard variance? Do all players experience these kinds of drastic EV swings over 20,000+ hands, or is something out of whack here?

Should I expect over the long run that these numbers will eventually begin to balance?
variance: widening gap between $ won and EV....is this normal? Quote
12-27-2008 , 12:36 AM
#2
novel20
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old hand
Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 1,712
You would need to figure out how it calculates EV adjusted winnings.
variance: widening gap between $ won and EV....is this normal? Quote
12-27-2008 , 05:29 AM
#3
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DoubleFly
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Pooh-Bah
Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 5,983
Are you talking about all-in ev? If so, then all-in ev and your actual winnings should converge over time. You may play more aggressive poker, so you may experience more variance between the two lines, but the two should converge.
variance: widening gap between $ won and EV....is this normal? Quote
12-27-2008 , 06:15 AM
#4
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RosaParks
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veteran
Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 2,887
20k hands is never even worth talking about in terms of statistics.
variance: widening gap between $ won and EV....is this normal? Quote
12-29-2008 , 12:34 PM
#5
ciro bonano's Avatar
ciro bonano
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grinder
Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 649
Quote:
Originally Posted by DoubleFly
Are you talking about all-in ev? If so, then all-in ev and your actual winnings should converge over time.
It shouldn't, the dollar difference DIVIDED BY THE NUMBER OF HANDS should go to zero (or the evbb/100 should converge to bb/100, that's obviously the same).
variance: widening gap between $ won and EV....is this normal? Quote
12-29-2008 , 12:41 PM
#6
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DoubleFly
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Pooh-Bah
Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 5,983
Yes. That's what I was thinking, but it came out wrong. Thanks.
variance: widening gap between $ won and EV....is this normal? Quote
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