Started tracking poker around September and was running at 20 bb/hr at 1/2 for around 180 hours. Recently since January have dropped down to 16 bb/ hr. Wondering if this is normal variance or me donking off chips.
Some hands for example hero on the 5$ utg straddle, raise to 25 utg 1 and a few callers, hero rips Ak for 240 effective. Utg 1 calls and wins w/ A5 s
Very similar situation happened an hour later with similar stack sizes and same villain except lost to a flopped set of fives.

Bought short later just to play a little before the game ended, hero on the 5 straddle again, few limps and sb raises to 30 and bb calls, I rip a 140$ stack with 8s and lose to KQo.

Is this normal variance or should I be 3betting smaller to avoid getting stacks in to flip? 3 betting smaller just kind of prices you in regardless but the flips when you get called by any two just seems to be more influenced by variance than anything else. Could the straddle also just be leading to more variance by cutting effective stacks? Better to not straddle less than 300 deep in a 1/2 game to at least have a playable stack?

You are getting the $ in good, just not holding. With eff stax < 50 bbs, gii with those two hands will definitely experience some swings.

Your hourly is very high, not sure it's sustainable, perhaps game conditions might be in your favor. Hope it continues, though a downswing wouldn't be surprising.

Play solid, try not to overthink unfavorable results.

Somewhere there's a stoic quote about expectations that would fit perfectly for this but I can't find it. Imagine a different scenario - for 180 hours you make 12 bb/hr and then in January you hit 16 bb/hr + a high hand bonus that pays out 2880$ (=8 bb/hr at 180 hours). How would you feel?

You're asking if it's normal to drop 4bb/hr in the course of 5k hands?

Yes.

You're results are never static, no matter what date range you put in or how many sessions you look at. Just because you averaged 20bb/hr for the first 180 hrs NEVER guarantees it will remain the same going forward.

Looking at your numbers is like looking at the scale when you're tryna lose weight. Our weight fluctuates depending on how much water is retained in our system, like when someone hops on the scale and says "OMG I gained two pounds in 2 days but I never went off my diet WHAT'S HAPPENING TO ME?!?" it's the same thing with your poker win rate. Just keep playing the same (assuming you don't have leaks) and don't get too overly obsessed with these things.

Sounds like you are in a very good game. The only reason I can see to play short stacked in a game like that is so you can shove a hand like 88