$2/3

H $380 HJ - been at the table one orbit. No play to speak of. Just for fun the best player in the metro area (2.5 million people) is on my direct left.

V covers BB - reg I don’t know a lot. Seems like a decent reg but not a crusher but really guessing. Late 30’s WG.

OTTH
Folds to H, AsAc, $15, BTN calls, V calls. $15 is standard open at this table.

Flops ($44)
Td3c2h
V checks, H $25, BTN folds, V calls.

Turn ($94)
Td3c2h Qd

V checks, H $60, V $120, H calls. I hate the min raise. V doesn’t have QQ or TT but could have QTs/o easily. I do t know about 22/33 but possibly. Obviously can have all AXdd including A2/A3. I guess 45 or 46dd is possible. KQo, AQo I think are possible.

River ($334)
Td3c2h Qd 7h

V puts H in at $210. H? Can’t brick harder than that on the river and I’d expect V to shove river basically 100% after turn c/r and river brick. 1 pair doesn’t feel great here but folding seems nitty. Did I commit to a river call after the turn?

Thoughts on all streets appreciated.

It feels like you're being driven to value town. I would have checked the turn because I don't have much faith that AA is a 3 street hand unimproved at a table featuring the best player in a large metropolitan location. I would fold the river.

I think that you're right near the edge, but I suck it up and call, fully preparing to have to reload. In addition to the hands you've enumerated, he could also have AJdd, and even KJdd.

If you held the Ad, then it's a pretty easy fold, because he doesn't have enough missed draw hands to put enough bluffs in his range. As is, it's a slightly painful call, IMO.

Grunch

Played great early streets. Let's figure out where we're at on this river.

TL;DR call this hand and feel good IMO unless you got reads that this game is very passive. As always you can bring in live reads or tell yourself players under bluff at this level but I think many players actually can easily overbluff this spot.

Thinking about his range

You bet a little over half pot so he can float flop with some iffy hands that picked up straight or diamond draws on turn. Now they bricked so there's good reason for you to be doing some bluff catching.

He could have 77, 33, and 3 combos of QT. That's 9 value. Maybe 22 as well. There's a fair number of diamonds hands, some paired up, he could play this with. A2dd-A9dd, maybe he just flats AJdd or 3bets it, KJdd. 45dd and 65dd. So 12ish combos of draws that we can discount some of but also add some screw plays. I'm feeling like we have about as many draws as value he could be betting on the river. You are getting 2.5 to 1 so need only 28% to be good here. Close to slam dunk call on river from that perspective as long as you don't have Ad.

What about your range?

Do you bet/call AQ on turn? Probably cbet it on flop and obv call the silly min raise on turn.

Do you three bet TT and QQ and QTs? Maybe sometimes and maybe you call others.

So river you have 6 AA, 6 KK, 12 AQ, let's say 1/2 of your sets and two pair so 5 QQ and TT and QT that's 29 combos plus a bunch of busted draws that you bet twice then got priced into calling the turn raise with. I'm not even gonna count your draws because you're asking about AA and to be unexploitable you need to call something like 60% and you only have 5-9 combos of value before your AA so it looks like a slam dunk again as long as you don't have Ad.

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

I don't mind the turn bet, since even my grandmother these days call cbets, but I would just fold to the min-raise. He's got us crushed, and we're drawing pretty thin.

Preflop and flop seem pretty standard.

The turn is the decision point HU against what could be a reasonably wide V BB range. Obviously he has some Qx and suited diamond combos that turned more equity against H's perceived range which has 88/99/JJ and all the AK in addition to the overpairs. I think the minclick raise folds our midpairs up to JJ and AK and I suppose that's V's intent .

So V compresses H's range with the turn raise to overpairs (KK/AA), AQ and TT/QQ. So I feel like he makes this play with Qx (blocking our set) or NFD (blocking AA) against an uncapped H. I think it's a weird play for V to make with non-NFDs.

On the river, V makes a polarized bet putting H all-in, having taken a value line ott. Why not offer us a great price to call if he's got it? What are we folding if he bets $100 otr? We're probably calling everything down to KQs for 100 getting 4-1.

I suppose I could level myself into folding our AdAx hands but I'm not folding black Aces here getting 5-2.

I'd have the seat change button (and possibly table change button) with that dude sitting on our left.

I limp in but that's me. Even moreso with this dude sitting to our left (where limp/reraising nullifies his skill and position whereas raising at a non-short stack size does none of that).

SPR of ~8 so definitely not feeling committed. Bone dry board. I'm fine with a cbet but I'd probably go smaller. Also think checking once and a while here is fine too with a guy still to act behind us.

I'm checking back the turn. Admittedly, I likely have a much nittier image than you (or anyone, lol) but with an overcard coming I'm just don't think we're getting paid off for 4 streets by worse all that often (especially on a drawless board) and meanwhile most hands that we are ahead are drawing pretty slim. Also pot controls when behind and can possibly induce bluffs or overvalues.

As played, I fold to the check/raise. Again, I'm guessing my image is much more nittier than yours. But still: you have a lotta people check/raising a lotta worse hands here? And we think AQ/KQ is playing like this, for realz?

I don't make it to the river. But I still fold.

Goverthinkingagainstthegeneralpokerpopulation,imoG